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> All the Nordic countries underestimated the pandemic. All countries underestimated the pandemic. From China to the United Kingdom, USA or Italy, every countr
by Hokusai 7y ago
> All the Nordic countries underestimated the pandemic.
All countries underestimated the pandemic. From China to the United Kingdom, USA or Italy, every country underestimated it. The main difference is the attitude once lock downs are needed.
Maybe South Korea was the exception. But, South Korea is a high-income country in a permanent war with its north brother. The country is probably prepared for a biological attack similar to a pandemic. And, even South Korea seems to have lowered its standards and cases are growing up.
> I fear Sweden is still basing their approach on those optimistic models
Yes. It is surprising how everybody is blinded by exponential growth. "It is just 10 cases, it is just 50 cases, it is just 125 cases, it is just ... oh shit!"
- birdyrooster 7y agoMeh
- _delirium 7y agoThe most commonly used epidemiological models are exponential in early phases of an outbreak, because they assume roughly constant infectiousness, up until the point where some non-negligible portion of the population has recovered and gained immunity. If the nth infected person produces as many new infections as the 1st, you get exponential growth. For example, to take a very simple version of that model: if each infected person infects R other people over some time period, and you have 1 infection at t=0, then you have R^t new infections at time step t.
- e12e 7y agoMaybe the graphs from ft are illuminating. They attempt to show the hopefully more comparable data across countries: deaths pr day, starting at [ed:10th death]: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
- gurkendoktor 7y agoThere is at least one country that didn't underestimate the virus - Taiwan, which was way ahead of the WHO at every step: warned about human-to-human transmission at the end of 2019(!), quickly ramped up travel restrictions, immediately mobilized to mass-produce masks. The vast majority of new cases in Taiwan are imported now, and everyone coming back has to self-quarantine for 14 days.
- tooltalk 7y agohow about Vietnam (174 cases and no death so far)? It shares physical border with China and the country's health system, much less response to the pandemic, threadbare; yet they have fewer cases than Taiwan. IMO, I think it's very difficult to draw any important lessons from countries that are warmer climate like Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, or Thailand.
- gurkendoktor 7y agoThe grandparent was talking about taking the risk seriously - you can say that about Taiwan no matter its climate. My gut feeling is that the culture of wearing masks, not shaking hands etc. is just as important of a factor as the climate. I guess we'll find out by observing cooler Japan.
- tooltalk 7y agoSouth Korea was no exception. The country also underestimated the virus in the beginning. The pro-commie China president Moon of South Korea declared a premature victory and donated 2M face masks to China, just before a major outbreak caused by a right-wing cult in Daegu where Patient #31 was a member, only to find the country in masks shortage. South Korea was however better prepared only because they had another coronavirus called MERS (Middle East Respiratory Symdrome) not too long (in 2015). The MERS outbreak wasn't as fatal (only 180+ cases with 30+ death), but it had significant impact on their economy and exposed their weaknesses. So they learned quickly and spent the last five years reforming regulation, logistic/supply-chain, and public policy, and preparedfor next public health crisis. South Korea has not lowered their standard, but, unlike its collectivists neighbors like Taiwan, China, not everyone is onboard with the gov't's effort, especially among some right-wing Christian religious groups, and they now average 100 new cases per day -- and most of them come from either church or hospital.