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I think there is/was validity to the concept of EROEI: energy return on energy invested. The EROEI of oil has decreased over time. What they got wrong was the
by api 7y ago
I think there is/was validity to the concept of EROEI: energy return on energy invested. The EROEI of oil has decreased over time.
What they got wrong was the overall estimate of how much of this stuff there is to be extracted. The easy oil is indeed being used up, but as you invest more and more energy (EROEI decreases) the amount of oil available actually increases. Look at how much tar sands, oil shale, offshore, and heavy crude there is, but all that requires more energy to get.
We would eventually run out of oil to be had at a reasonable energy (and thus economic) cost, but after that if we still needed it we could get it by converting coal. That assumes we decide we don't need the ice caps, or the coastal cities.
We probably have enough carbon to destroy the world.
- drewm1980 7y agoI also wonder if the peak oil computations included oil discoveries as the arctic melts.
- api 7y agoThey didn't, and if we go there we definitely have enough carbon to go back to the Pleistocene epoch. Antarctica is believed to contain large coal and oil fields but they have not been thoroughly mapped as they are not economic to reach at the moment. I recall watching an old 50s documentary on Antarctica when I was bored years ago and they mentioned that there was enough fuel there to satisfy our energy needs for hundreds of years. This was before anyone was very worried about CO2.