3 ms·
When you say, very likely, can you put a percent on it so we know if you mean 20% or 80%?
by amylene 7y ago
When you say, very likely, can you put a percent on it so we know if you mean 20% or 80%?
- SpicyLemonZest 7y agoI mean 80%, although I have a bias here because I'd be one of the people trying to make it happen.
- amylene 7y agoSuper interesting, thanks for replying! So you are aware that your estimate is biased because of your other beliefs, but you don’t try to fix that? Mind if I ask why?
- SpicyLemonZest 7y agoSorry, no, I may have been unclear. I don't know that my estimate is biased - I believe I've properly adjusted for my other beliefs and desires - but I can't know for sure I adjusted correctly so it would be misleading for me to present an estimate as though I'm a dispassionate observer.
- amylene 7y agoOur best guesses are the best we can do. Are you familiar with the research around the bias bias? Or the fact that smart people tend to be more subject to biases?