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The over capacity modeling is incredibly difficult to do. Please stop trying to spread additional gloom and doom about a part of this future most people have no

The over capacity modeling is incredibly difficult to do. Please stop trying to spread additional gloom and doom about a part of this future most people have no control over. There are already novel ideas to address that issue being put into use and capacity is ramping up rapidly. Modeling the future is incredibly difficult. If you think it is so easy, feel free to go become a billionaire in the financial markets and donate the money to help with the cause. Spread fear about uncontrollable and unpredictable future events is wildly irresponsible.

lopmotr 7y ago
> Spread fear about uncontrollable and unpredictable future events is wildly irresponsible. I'm not sure about that. Back in January, it was surely not irresponsible to get people worried about a pandemic. China is often criticized for suppressing online fear-mongering. Climate change activists are praised for it. Fear motivates people. It might not be the most rational motivation but neither is passively believing everything will continue as normal. This idea that the world is full of gullible idiots and that "us" smart people have to be careful what we say in case they act on it is arrogant. Facts online are often self-correcting, as you can see right here with people immediately challenging his claim.
airstrike 7y ago
Great ad hominem, but I can't resist responding even though you're basically just repeating the same (wrong) argument multiple times. > The over capacity modeling is incredibly difficult to do. I never stated otherwise. And I'm not asking anyone to model anything. I'm just saying we'll be over capacity at a near point in the future. That seems like a pretty defensible extrapolation, but would love to hear how that's not the case. > Please stop trying to spread additional gloom and doom about a part of this future most people have no control over. Why? This is the world we live in currently. What you call "gloom and doom" others would call being cautious. > There are already novel ideas to address that issue being put into use and capacity is ramping up rapidly. Ideas. Let's hope they come to fruition. In the meantime, let's not kid ourselves about the risk to the non-elderly. > Modeling the future is incredibly difficult. Again irrelevant. I never claimed otherwise. > If you think it is so easy I don't think it's easy > Spread fear about uncontrollable and unpredictable future events is wildly irresponsible. I'm not "spreading fear". I'm debating an issue with most analyses currently being done in that they don't apply to the overcapacity scenario. And I disagree that's an irresponsible argument to make. Indeed, I can't see how turning a deaf ear to this most reasonable extrapolation that we'll soon be over capacity isn't the most irresponsible of the two.

lopmotr 7y ago

> Spread fear about uncontrollable and unpredictable future events is wildly irresponsible. I'm not sure about that. Back in January, it was surely not irresponsible to get people worried about a pandemic. China is often criticized for suppressing online fear-mongering. Climate change activists are praised for it. Fear motivates people. It might not be the most rational motivation but neither is passively believing everything will continue as normal. This idea that the world is full of gullible idiots and that "us" smart people have to be careful what we say in case they act on it is arrogant. Facts online are often self-correcting, as you can see right here with people immediately challenging his claim.

airstrike 7y ago

Great ad hominem, but I can't resist responding even though you're basically just repeating the same (wrong) argument multiple times. > The over capacity modeling is incredibly difficult to do. I never stated otherwise. And I'm not asking anyone to model anything. I'm just saying we'll be over capacity at a near point in the future. That seems like a pretty defensible extrapolation, but would love to hear how that's not the case. > Please stop trying to spread additional gloom and doom about a part of this future most people have no control over. Why? This is the world we live in currently. What you call "gloom and doom" others would call being cautious. > There are already novel ideas to address that issue being put into use and capacity is ramping up rapidly. Ideas. Let's hope they come to fruition. In the meantime, let's not kid ourselves about the risk to the non-elderly. > Modeling the future is incredibly difficult. Again irrelevant. I never claimed otherwise. > If you think it is so easy I don't think it's easy > Spread fear about uncontrollable and unpredictable future events is wildly irresponsible. I'm not "spreading fear". I'm debating an issue with most analyses currently being done in that they don't apply to the overcapacity scenario. And I disagree that's an irresponsible argument to make. Indeed, I can't see how turning a deaf ear to this most reasonable extrapolation that we'll soon be over capacity isn't the most irresponsible of the two.