4 ms·

I have wondered that for a while, especially since countries like Malaysia had outbreaks long before Italy. Originally I thought: https://simonsarris.com/sunlig

I have wondered that for a while, especially since countries like Malaysia had outbreaks long before Italy. Originally I thought: https://simonsarris.com/sunlight https://simonsarris.com/sunlight (note: data last updated March 16) But there are several axes that could matter just as much as quarantine/lockdowns: Humidity, sunlight (as proxy for vitamin D levels, or simply UV), pollution (which also affects sunlight), median age (47 in Italy, 30 in Malaysia, that's huge), and mask use. Bergamo has low sunshine in Feb and March comparatively. Places hard hit, and their average sunshine on selected months: * Wuhan: 100 (In Feb) * Paris: 79-129 (Feb-March, North France harder it by # of cases, cannot find death info) * Bergamo Italy: 100-150 (Feb-March average) * Seattle WA: 100-150 (Feb-March) * Iran sunshine varies a lot by locale. But some places like Rasht, its very low light: 90, 78, 71, 113 for Jan, Feb, Mar, April Places less hard hit: * Bangkok 250-275 (Feb-March) * Kuala Lumpur 185, 192, 208 (Jan Feb March) * Ho Chi Minh City, 272 (March) * Seoul: 175-200 (Feb-March) South Korea contained it of course, but their lethality numbers are also lower, and its the lethality that I find odd in all this.

fiftyfifty 7y ago
I'm really starting to think there might be something to this. In the US, I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop in places like California, Texas and Florida and the days keep going by and we are not seeing anything like the death toll New York is having. California had some of the very first cases in the US and took in at least one cruise ship of infected people. Florida's governor has been openly defiant against shutting the state down and they only have 29 deaths so far. If ever there was a place in the US where virtually every single inhabitant is vitamin D deficient it is New York City, even in the summer time.
- adventured 7y ago
  There is something to it, I just don't know why nobody is talking about it much. It's pretty painfully obvious if you start digging into the data, researching the outbreak map, and looking at the temps & humidity levels in the areas. SARS-CoV-2 appears to more or less be obeying what influenza does when it comes to seasons, temps, and humidity (along with perhaps sunsine / vitamin D as a factor). NYC should be cranking humidifiers, pushing humidity up to 50% in every space where people exist (except hospitals). It'll dramatically slow the infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 imo. Super low human space humidity is the best friend of a respiratory virus. Why aren't San Antonio and Houston buried in cases? Same reason Mexico and Los Angeles are not (relatively speaking, and especially compared to eg NYC). Las Vegas should be buried in cases, they have tons of international traffic, a zillion opportunities for the virus to be transited around, spread to casino workers and everywhere. Their ICUs should be overflowing to an epic degree. Las Vegas has an inverted humidity map, peak humidity there is November to March, and avg high temps stay up near 55 to 60 degrees (influenza at least hates temps over ~60-65+ F). How about Santa Fe or Phoenix? Super low case loads, as with Houston and Austin and other similar locations. Florida isn't seeing a particularly bad outbreak in its cities. Albuquerque and Phoenix have inverted humidity seasons, their peak humidity times are roughly October/Nov to March. Wuhan's low sunshine season is November to March. Temps are often well below 50 degrees during that period (and essentially never get to 65+), not high enough to interfere much with influenza or probably SARS-CoV-2. It gets cold enough during flu season there to require persistent indoor heating, which dries everything out, lowering indoor humidity levels dramatically, amplifying potential infectiousness.

fiftyfifty 7y ago

I'm really starting to think there might be something to this. In the US, I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop in places like California, Texas and Florida and the days keep going by and we are not seeing anything like the death toll New York is having. California had some of the very first cases in the US and took in at least one cruise ship of infected people. Florida's governor has been openly defiant against shutting the state down and they only have 29 deaths so far. If ever there was a place in the US where virtually every single inhabitant is vitamin D deficient it is New York City, even in the summer time.

adventured 7y ago
There is something to it, I just don't know why nobody is talking about it much. It's pretty painfully obvious if you start digging into the data, researching the outbreak map, and looking at the temps & humidity levels in the areas. SARS-CoV-2 appears to more or less be obeying what influenza does when it comes to seasons, temps, and humidity (along with perhaps sunsine / vitamin D as a factor). NYC should be cranking humidifiers, pushing humidity up to 50% in every space where people exist (except hospitals). It'll dramatically slow the infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 imo. Super low human space humidity is the best friend of a respiratory virus. Why aren't San Antonio and Houston buried in cases? Same reason Mexico and Los Angeles are not (relatively speaking, and especially compared to eg NYC). Las Vegas should be buried in cases, they have tons of international traffic, a zillion opportunities for the virus to be transited around, spread to casino workers and everywhere. Their ICUs should be overflowing to an epic degree. Las Vegas has an inverted humidity map, peak humidity there is November to March, and avg high temps stay up near 55 to 60 degrees (influenza at least hates temps over ~60-65+ F). How about Santa Fe or Phoenix? Super low case loads, as with Houston and Austin and other similar locations. Florida isn't seeing a particularly bad outbreak in its cities. Albuquerque and Phoenix have inverted humidity seasons, their peak humidity times are roughly October/Nov to March. Wuhan's low sunshine season is November to March. Temps are often well below 50 degrees during that period (and essentially never get to 65+), not high enough to interfere much with influenza or probably SARS-CoV-2. It gets cold enough during flu season there to require persistent indoor heating, which dries everything out, lowering indoor humidity levels dramatically, amplifying potential infectiousness.