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It's a consideration. However, where is the million dead people that should be happening between these nations given the 440 million people? The virus would be

It's a consideration. However, where is the million dead people that should be happening between these nations given the 440 million people? The virus would be destroying them at this point. We've seen what it can do in Italy, the US, Germany, France, etc. in terms of spreading and hitting ICU units, killing people. It has a 10% mortality rate despite Italy's best efforts, and a 5.7% mortality rate in France (among positive tests). France has an elite healthcare system. So with no testing, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Philippines - they should be falling over and buried in dead people by now. China was being ravaged by it and had to implement extreme measures rapidly.

logicchains 7y ago
Check the population pyramid for these countries. They have a way smaller fraction of old people, and a way larger fraction of young people. This has a big effect on fatality rates.
- adventured 7y ago
  Thailand is older than the US or China at the median. In their case, they're not a young nation, like the Philippines is (Vietnam, Indonesia and Mexico, 30-32 at the median, are more of a mixture between the two). And of course Italy, Germany and Spain are very old nations (Germany & Italy being nearly twice the median age of the Philippines). Youth certainly has a big impact on mortality rates with Covid, and not such a huge impact on ICU rates. Close to half of the most serious cases in eg NYC and France are of people under 50. We'd see the system overload in places like Thailand and Mexico, as their ICUs would still flood with people over the age of ~20 (and as you note, they'd potentially have a lower mortality rate due to fewer old people as a percentage of the population; although Mexico does have a very high obesity and diabetes rate in their specific context, which might complicate their mortality factors (recently noted as a concern by one of their govt health officials)).
- fiftyfifty 7y ago
  What about Florida (and Arizona) in the US? Those states are overrun with old people and they are actively avoiding testing and mandatory isolation. Florida has 29 deaths right now attributed to Covid-19 and their governor is being criticized daily for his poor response.
robryan 7y ago
Depends when it really took off in each country, the time from transmission to requiring hospitalisation can be fairly long, 2-3 weeks. It seems a country can probably avoid testing for a decent period of time until the wave of hospitalisations hit them.

logicchains 7y ago

Check the population pyramid for these countries. They have a way smaller fraction of old people, and a way larger fraction of young people. This has a big effect on fatality rates.

adventured 7y ago
Thailand is older than the US or China at the median. In their case, they're not a young nation, like the Philippines is (Vietnam, Indonesia and Mexico, 30-32 at the median, are more of a mixture between the two). And of course Italy, Germany and Spain are very old nations (Germany & Italy being nearly twice the median age of the Philippines). Youth certainly has a big impact on mortality rates with Covid, and not such a huge impact on ICU rates. Close to half of the most serious cases in eg NYC and France are of people under 50. We'd see the system overload in places like Thailand and Mexico, as their ICUs would still flood with people over the age of ~20 (and as you note, they'd potentially have a lower mortality rate due to fewer old people as a percentage of the population; although Mexico does have a very high obesity and diabetes rate in their specific context, which might complicate their mortality factors (recently noted as a concern by one of their govt health officials)).
fiftyfifty 7y ago
What about Florida (and Arizona) in the US? Those states are overrun with old people and they are actively avoiding testing and mandatory isolation. Florida has 29 deaths right now attributed to Covid-19 and their governor is being criticized daily for his poor response.

robryan 7y ago

Depends when it really took off in each country, the time from transmission to requiring hospitalisation can be fairly long, 2-3 weeks. It seems a country can probably avoid testing for a decent period of time until the wave of hospitalisations hit them.