3 ms·

How much higher will the rate of death be in 2020 compared to 2019? Some people that dies from/with Covid would have died from something else just days/weeks/mo

How much higher will the rate of death be in 2020 compared to 2019? Some people that dies from/with Covid would have died from something else just days/weeks/months later, but not all of them. But how many are “extra” deaths? I’m not saying the answers should influence our policy decisions necessarily, but it’s still an interesting question.

pishpash 7y ago
Using a year is arbitrary. Everyone eventually dies, so there are no "extra" deaths, only premature deaths. I think it's better to look at expected lifespan decrease.
m_mueller 7y ago
I guess there's even a slight chance that it will be a lower rate in some countries, due to people staying at home, air being cleaner etc. - at great cost for the economy of course.
lordnacho 7y ago
I think we'd need a "healthy years lost" analysis to see this. Take the residual expected lives of each cohort and guess how many of those years are lost due to the illness. Similarly some kind of measure for the weeks in hospital and potential permanent damage from surviving.
samsonradu 7y ago
With the recent movement restrictions I would also expect the car crash death rate to fall considerably so the numbers might be skewed. For 2018 there were 25100 deaths reported for the 28 EU states [1]. [1] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/MEMO_19_1990 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/MEMO_1...
CalRobert 7y ago
Incidentally, the leading direct cause of death for children and young adults, drivers, is curtailed by shelter in place restrictions. Deaths from air pollution will most likely fall as well.
DanBC 7y ago
You may be interested in this, from Public Health England. This is mostly about flu (of all strains), but it also includes MERS-CoV, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), rhinovirus, adenovirus, human metapneumovirus (hMPV), parainfluenza and other general respiratory illnesses. It gives an idea of how complicated it can be to work out the additional mortality caused by a disease. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/526405/Flu_Annual_Report_2015_2016.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

pishpash 7y ago

Using a year is arbitrary. Everyone eventually dies, so there are no "extra" deaths, only premature deaths. I think it's better to look at expected lifespan decrease.

m_mueller 7y ago

I guess there's even a slight chance that it will be a lower rate in some countries, due to people staying at home, air being cleaner etc. - at great cost for the economy of course.

lordnacho 7y ago

I think we'd need a "healthy years lost" analysis to see this. Take the residual expected lives of each cohort and guess how many of those years are lost due to the illness. Similarly some kind of measure for the weeks in hospital and potential permanent damage from surviving.

samsonradu 7y ago

With the recent movement restrictions I would also expect the car crash death rate to fall considerably so the numbers might be skewed. For 2018 there were 25100 deaths reported for the 28 EU states [1]. [1] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/MEMO_19_1990 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/MEMO_1...

CalRobert 7y ago

Incidentally, the leading direct cause of death for children and young adults, drivers, is curtailed by shelter in place restrictions. Deaths from air pollution will most likely fall as well.

DanBC 7y ago

You may be interested in this, from Public Health England. This is mostly about flu (of all strains), but it also includes MERS-CoV, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), rhinovirus, adenovirus, human metapneumovirus (hMPV), parainfluenza and other general respiratory illnesses. It gives an idea of how complicated it can be to work out the additional mortality caused by a disease. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/526405/Flu_Annual_Report_2015_2016.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...