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do you have evidence to support your claims? Italy has not seen any reduction in new cases from its lockdown. Many epidemiologists have posited that a blanket l

do you have evidence to support your claims? Italy has not seen any reduction in new cases from its lockdown. Many epidemiologists have posited that a blanket lockdown does more harm than good when instituted after the virus is already widespread.

remarkEon 7y ago
This is the kind of ridiculous pedantic response I'm referring to. Are you claiming that the growth in new cases would be the same without a substantial decrease in social interaction from the lockdown? The cases you're seeing today were initially infected as long as 2 weeks prior. The claim you're making in that case is much more extreme than mine, because you have to make the argument this isn't something that has a high rate of human transmission. Folks, we're all data-oriented people I get it. But it strains credulity that we're suspending our logical faculties for how viruses actually work.
marcosdumay 7y ago
You mean that lockdown that started 17 days ago, and didn't become full until 5 days ago? I wonder with every expert around claiming that it takes at least 15 days for an action to cause an effect, why is it that the growth in the number of cases only started to slow down a couple of days ago?
- thu2111 7y ago
  Where did 15 days come from? The last figures people were given in the UK was you can incubate for 7 days then get sick for 7 days, which is why people were told to self-isolate for 14 days if someone in their household got sick. If that's true then you'd expect to see a drop in case numbers just one week after a full lockdown.
  - marcosdumay 7y ago
    From the WHO, here: https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses > Most estimates of the incubation period for COVID-19 range from 1-14 days Honestly, I took the 15 days from memory. There are plenty of sources citing anything on that range. Keep in mind that after incubation a person will start to show weak symptoms, that get strong gradually. Hospitals will only notice a change after the week or so (from memory, there was a good interview with a Chinese doctor here a few weeks ago) that it takes for people to get really sick.

remarkEon 7y ago

This is the kind of ridiculous pedantic response I'm referring to. Are you claiming that the growth in new cases would be the same without a substantial decrease in social interaction from the lockdown? The cases you're seeing today were initially infected as long as 2 weeks prior. The claim you're making in that case is much more extreme than mine, because you have to make the argument this isn't something that has a high rate of human transmission. Folks, we're all data-oriented people I get it. But it strains credulity that we're suspending our logical faculties for how viruses actually work.

marcosdumay 7y ago

You mean that lockdown that started 17 days ago, and didn't become full until 5 days ago? I wonder with every expert around claiming that it takes at least 15 days for an action to cause an effect, why is it that the growth in the number of cases only started to slow down a couple of days ago?

thu2111 7y ago
Where did 15 days come from? The last figures people were given in the UK was you can incubate for 7 days then get sick for 7 days, which is why people were told to self-isolate for 14 days if someone in their household got sick. If that's true then you'd expect to see a drop in case numbers just one week after a full lockdown.
- marcosdumay 7y ago
  From the WHO, here: https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses > Most estimates of the incubation period for COVID-19 range from 1-14 days Honestly, I took the 15 days from memory. There are plenty of sources citing anything on that range. Keep in mind that after incubation a person will start to show weak symptoms, that get strong gradually. Hospitals will only notice a change after the week or so (from memory, there was a good interview with a Chinese doctor here a few weeks ago) that it takes for people to get really sick.