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I read the article to say: lockdowns don't solve anything, the virus still lurks. Lockdowns are a public policy cul-de-sac. The Korea solution of extremely ag

I read the article to say: lockdowns don't solve anything, the virus still lurks. Lockdowns are a public policy cul-de-sac. The Korea solution of extremely aggressive testing is the only way for a nation to function effectively while also guarding against the novel coronavirus.

vkou 7y ago
Lockdowns buy you time to institute the Korean model.
- jonplackett 7y ago
  In the UK we don’t seem to have realised this yet. Our gov’s plan was do no testing and just sort of hope it infected everyone so we’d have herd immunity but somehow without killing too many people. The virus had other plans
- lazyjones 7y ago
  How long? Buying a week or less isn't worth the damage to the economy.
  - Cerium 7y ago
    As long as it takes to get ahead.
  - elorant 7y ago
    A week won't do shit. You need a couple of months for the curve to become flat and from there on you go to targeted lockdowns through a lot of testing.
  - vkou 7y ago
    1. The economy is going to be destroyed regardless. Right-thinking people currently don't want to travel, don't want to eat out, don't want to go to entertainment venues. If you lift the lockdown tomorrow, without actually controlling the virus, all of those industries are still going to die (Along with a few million people), with all the knock-on effects. Also, once everyone expects a recession, people reign in spending, thus making that expectation self-fulfilling. 2. There's every reason to believe that a lockdown significantly cuts down R, even to below 1, thus buying a lot more than a week. It certainly did in Wuhan. Instead of griping about the economy, why don't we actually work on measures that will let us leave lockdown?
    - lazyjones 7y ago
      > It certainly did in Wuhan. Instead of griping about the economy, why don't we actually work on measures that will let us leave lockdown? It's a global epidemic now, Wuhan isn't safe. What measures will really let us leave lockdown, other than hunting down and isolating (or worse...) infected world-wide?
    - sershe 7y ago
      I'm tired of this story (1 above) frankly. Have you been anywhere with lockdown as it was being ramped up? I don't know where those right thinking people are, but even after everything-except-the-stay-at-home order in WA (i.e. everything closed and a recommendation to stay home including freakin signs on the highway), everything that was open was extremely crowded, from the park near my home to any restaurant with takeout nearby benches or a park, to hiking trails. We went out, a trailhead was literally the most crowded I've seen it in my 8 years here by far (Little Si trail, the big overflow-overflow parking lot was almost full). That is WITH lockdown and constant media fear mongering. Without lockdown it would be even (from my position) better. I was working thoughout the week, but even with stay at home order and parking lots gated, someone told me there are tons of people on weekdays out on popular trails, parking on nearby roads and walking in, and I applaud this civil disobedience. Right thinking people would go out and live their lives. We also have a historical example of Spanish flu that did nothing to economy even in medium term.
CivBase 7y ago
How exactly does the Korean model work? They aggressively test people... and then just quarantine individuals? Isn't one of the supposed problems with this virus that it spreads rapidly before symptoms show?
- Beefin 7y ago
  you cant measure what you cant see. tests allow you to see the virus and then you can backtrack all the interactions a positive person had.
- bosswipe 7y ago
  They test everyone that might have had contact whether they have symptoms or not. Though they haven't been able to squash it they've able to keep the growth rate linear instead of exponential like it is everywhere else, which might be the best you can hope for.
- dannyw 7y ago
  They test any contact, even if you don’t show symptoms. And everyone wears masks. We do neither of these.
- dba7dba 7y ago
  The Korean model is test a lot, and quarantine those found infected. But that is just the beginning. The real effective tool is tracking down where the infected person had been by examining cell records, credit card records, interviews and determine where the infected person had been at for a few days before infection was confirmed. Once the recent movements of an infected person is compiled, the list of location/time is blasted out via app and also main stream media. This public disclosure is important as infected person might have visited a mall or a theater, making it impossible to contact each of possible contacts individually. Big malls/theaters have closed for a few days after a visit by an infected person is found. After deep cleaning of a few days, it reopens. Some articles that explain better are below. How Korea got a fast start with testing for coronavirus: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testing-specialrep/special-report-how-korea-trounced-u-s-in-race-to-test-people-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN2153BW https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testin... Extensive contact tracing has slowed viral spread in Korea: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00740-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00740-y But all of above is possible only with a lot of testing, free when ordered by a doctor due to possible exposure.
remarkEon 7y ago
>lockdowns don't solve anything Of course they don't kill the virus, but they absolutely do work if your definition of success isn't sufficiently pedantic to mean "this strategy eliminated the virus completely". They reduce the dr/dt of infections, giving you time to prep and actually save people's lives when they do get infected. "Lockdowns don't solve anything" should be lumped into the same category of advice as "masks don't solve anything". Both statements are true IFF your definition of "solve" is "virus is over with this one neat trick".
- ssharp 7y ago
  I've never once heard that lockdowns cure us from the virus. The stated goal by my State's (Ohio) government is "widen the curve", meaning to spread out the peak of the infection rate to a longer period of time so hospitals don't get overwhelmed.
  - bluGill 7y ago
    I'll say it then. "lock downs CAN cure us from the virus". Note that can doesn't mean it will. If everybody in the world stuck to their own small family house (not extended family) for four weeks it would be gone, either your family had it (with some deaths because of lack of medical care),kicked it, and everything on surfaces died; or it wasn't in your family and you were safe. Of course few people can do that. You need not only stored food, but also there will be nobody running the power plants (and it will take them two weeks to restart them afterwards), not to mention hospitals won't be there for other emergencies.
- bagacrap 7y ago
  do you have evidence to support your claims? Italy has not seen any reduction in new cases from its lockdown. Many epidemiologists have posited that a blanket lockdown does more harm than good when instituted after the virus is already widespread.
  - remarkEon 7y ago
    This is the kind of ridiculous pedantic response I'm referring to. Are you claiming that the growth in new cases would be the same without a substantial decrease in social interaction from the lockdown? The cases you're seeing today were initially infected as long as 2 weeks prior. The claim you're making in that case is much more extreme than mine, because you have to make the argument this isn't something that has a high rate of human transmission. Folks, we're all data-oriented people I get it. But it strains credulity that we're suspending our logical faculties for how viruses actually work.
DeonPenny 7y ago
I thought this. It seemed only to prevent the public from panicking I heard in NYC and italy it made things worse because young people got stuck inside with old people and made them sick.

vkou 7y ago

Lockdowns buy you time to institute the Korean model.

jonplackett 7y ago
In the UK we don’t seem to have realised this yet. Our gov’s plan was do no testing and just sort of hope it infected everyone so we’d have herd immunity but somehow without killing too many people. The virus had other plans
lazyjones 7y ago
How long? Buying a week or less isn't worth the damage to the economy.
- Cerium 7y ago
  As long as it takes to get ahead.
- elorant 7y ago
  A week won't do shit. You need a couple of months for the curve to become flat and from there on you go to targeted lockdowns through a lot of testing.
- vkou 7y ago
  1. The economy is going to be destroyed regardless. Right-thinking people currently don't want to travel, don't want to eat out, don't want to go to entertainment venues. If you lift the lockdown tomorrow, without actually controlling the virus, all of those industries are still going to die (Along with a few million people), with all the knock-on effects. Also, once everyone expects a recession, people reign in spending, thus making that expectation self-fulfilling. 2. There's every reason to believe that a lockdown significantly cuts down R, even to below 1, thus buying a lot more than a week. It certainly did in Wuhan. Instead of griping about the economy, why don't we actually work on measures that will let us leave lockdown?
  - lazyjones 7y ago
    > It certainly did in Wuhan. Instead of griping about the economy, why don't we actually work on measures that will let us leave lockdown? It's a global epidemic now, Wuhan isn't safe. What measures will really let us leave lockdown, other than hunting down and isolating (or worse...) infected world-wide?
  - sershe 7y ago
    I'm tired of this story (1 above) frankly. Have you been anywhere with lockdown as it was being ramped up? I don't know where those right thinking people are, but even after everything-except-the-stay-at-home order in WA (i.e. everything closed and a recommendation to stay home including freakin signs on the highway), everything that was open was extremely crowded, from the park near my home to any restaurant with takeout nearby benches or a park, to hiking trails. We went out, a trailhead was literally the most crowded I've seen it in my 8 years here by far (Little Si trail, the big overflow-overflow parking lot was almost full). That is WITH lockdown and constant media fear mongering. Without lockdown it would be even (from my position) better. I was working thoughout the week, but even with stay at home order and parking lots gated, someone told me there are tons of people on weekdays out on popular trails, parking on nearby roads and walking in, and I applaud this civil disobedience. Right thinking people would go out and live their lives. We also have a historical example of Spanish flu that did nothing to economy even in medium term.

CivBase 7y ago

How exactly does the Korean model work? They aggressively test people... and then just quarantine individuals? Isn't one of the supposed problems with this virus that it spreads rapidly before symptoms show?

Beefin 7y ago
you cant measure what you cant see. tests allow you to see the virus and then you can backtrack all the interactions a positive person had.
bosswipe 7y ago
They test everyone that might have had contact whether they have symptoms or not. Though they haven't been able to squash it they've able to keep the growth rate linear instead of exponential like it is everywhere else, which might be the best you can hope for.
dannyw 7y ago
They test any contact, even if you don’t show symptoms. And everyone wears masks. We do neither of these.
dba7dba 7y ago
The Korean model is test a lot, and quarantine those found infected. But that is just the beginning. The real effective tool is tracking down where the infected person had been by examining cell records, credit card records, interviews and determine where the infected person had been at for a few days before infection was confirmed. Once the recent movements of an infected person is compiled, the list of location/time is blasted out via app and also main stream media. This public disclosure is important as infected person might have visited a mall or a theater, making it impossible to contact each of possible contacts individually. Big malls/theaters have closed for a few days after a visit by an infected person is found. After deep cleaning of a few days, it reopens. Some articles that explain better are below. How Korea got a fast start with testing for coronavirus: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testing-specialrep/special-report-how-korea-trounced-u-s-in-race-to-test-people-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN2153BW https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testin... Extensive contact tracing has slowed viral spread in Korea: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00740-y https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00740-y But all of above is possible only with a lot of testing, free when ordered by a doctor due to possible exposure.

remarkEon 7y ago

>lockdowns don't solve anything Of course they don't kill the virus, but they absolutely do work if your definition of success isn't sufficiently pedantic to mean "this strategy eliminated the virus completely". They reduce the dr/dt of infections, giving you time to prep and actually save people's lives when they do get infected. "Lockdowns don't solve anything" should be lumped into the same category of advice as "masks don't solve anything". Both statements are true IFF your definition of "solve" is "virus is over with this one neat trick".

ssharp 7y ago
I've never once heard that lockdowns cure us from the virus. The stated goal by my State's (Ohio) government is "widen the curve", meaning to spread out the peak of the infection rate to a longer period of time so hospitals don't get overwhelmed.
- bluGill 7y ago
  I'll say it then. "lock downs CAN cure us from the virus". Note that can doesn't mean it will. If everybody in the world stuck to their own small family house (not extended family) for four weeks it would be gone, either your family had it (with some deaths because of lack of medical care),kicked it, and everything on surfaces died; or it wasn't in your family and you were safe. Of course few people can do that. You need not only stored food, but also there will be nobody running the power plants (and it will take them two weeks to restart them afterwards), not to mention hospitals won't be there for other emergencies.
bagacrap 7y ago
do you have evidence to support your claims? Italy has not seen any reduction in new cases from its lockdown. Many epidemiologists have posited that a blanket lockdown does more harm than good when instituted after the virus is already widespread.
- remarkEon 7y ago
  This is the kind of ridiculous pedantic response I'm referring to. Are you claiming that the growth in new cases would be the same without a substantial decrease in social interaction from the lockdown? The cases you're seeing today were initially infected as long as 2 weeks prior. The claim you're making in that case is much more extreme than mine, because you have to make the argument this isn't something that has a high rate of human transmission. Folks, we're all data-oriented people I get it. But it strains credulity that we're suspending our logical faculties for how viruses actually work.

DeonPenny 7y ago

I thought this. It seemed only to prevent the public from panicking I heard in NYC and italy it made things worse because young people got stuck inside with old people and made them sick.