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I think it's a fair discussion to take, but how are you going to run an economy with the health service in permanent overload? That is what would happen if you

I think it's a fair discussion to take, but how are you going to run an economy with the health service in permanent overload? That is what would happen if you just let the thing pass. Those charts of "squashing the sombrero" have the number of beds at a very low place compared to the expected hump of cases. On some of them you can barely even see the gap between the red line and the zero line, due to the scale of the hump. Death rates would shoot up way above what is normal for the disease, people would die of all sorts of other preventable things too.

geerlingguy 7y ago
Already everyone I know who was going to get a preventative health diagnostic test (myself included) in the next two months has had the test rescheduled. Otherwise healthy people are likely to have some percentage of un-diagnosed issues go on an extra month or two because of this, so it's definitely not just those who are directly infected with Coronavirus. Some places' ERs are already at capacity, and there's no way I would go to one right now unless I was almost at death's doorstep. That's not necessarily a good thing if something happens that should normally require an ER visit.
- dr_orpheus 7y ago
  Also, some procedures being performed that a patient would normally stay overnight and be monitored are being changed to outpatient. It can now be more risky to stay in a hospital than it is to go home for recovery, even though you can't be monitored for potential post-procedure complications.
wmeredith 7y ago
> in permanent overload It won't be permanent. It will be like a forest fire and kill a lot of people and be horrible, but will eventually die down due to heard immunity.
- lordnacho 7y ago
  Ok not permanent as in years and years. But long enough that it's towards the end of the year before there's capacity. You don't want people dying needlessly for half a year. And while the overload is on, the economy will be affected, whatever the response is.
- bpicolo 7y ago
  Doctors have passed from the illness, too. Even young, healthy ones. Stress and lack of sleep hurt the immune system.
  - nemo44x 7y ago
    I wonder how much the viral load affects this? People working in these conditions are at a high risk of inhaling a large amount of virus at different times.
    - dr_orpheus 7y ago
      I believe this was linked somewhere else on HN. It sounds like this is one of the possible causes of doctors being more affected by the virus, but they don't know for sure. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/health/doctors-coronavirus-health-care-hit-harder/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/health/doctors-coronavirus-he...
SuoDuanDao 7y ago
It seems to me that the health care system in general is one institution that has shown severe signs of strain in this crisis, and perhaps will need to be rethought along with others. Interestingly enough, questioning the health of that particular institution is much more taboo than most in this crisis. Given the practical importance of patient faith in the healthcare provider that may be reasonable, but for my money I'd like to be able to try and imagine a better healthcare system in a public forum without getting downvoted for criticizing its current incarnation.
malandrew 7y ago
> thow are you going to run an economy with the health service in permanent overload? You start rapidly building additional capacity to handle the load.

geerlingguy 7y ago

Already everyone I know who was going to get a preventative health diagnostic test (myself included) in the next two months has had the test rescheduled. Otherwise healthy people are likely to have some percentage of un-diagnosed issues go on an extra month or two because of this, so it's definitely not just those who are directly infected with Coronavirus. Some places' ERs are already at capacity, and there's no way I would go to one right now unless I was almost at death's doorstep. That's not necessarily a good thing if something happens that should normally require an ER visit.

dr_orpheus 7y ago
Also, some procedures being performed that a patient would normally stay overnight and be monitored are being changed to outpatient. It can now be more risky to stay in a hospital than it is to go home for recovery, even though you can't be monitored for potential post-procedure complications.

wmeredith 7y ago

> in permanent overload It won't be permanent. It will be like a forest fire and kill a lot of people and be horrible, but will eventually die down due to heard immunity.

lordnacho 7y ago
Ok not permanent as in years and years. But long enough that it's towards the end of the year before there's capacity. You don't want people dying needlessly for half a year. And while the overload is on, the economy will be affected, whatever the response is.
bpicolo 7y ago
Doctors have passed from the illness, too. Even young, healthy ones. Stress and lack of sleep hurt the immune system.
- nemo44x 7y ago
  I wonder how much the viral load affects this? People working in these conditions are at a high risk of inhaling a large amount of virus at different times.
  - dr_orpheus 7y ago
    I believe this was linked somewhere else on HN. It sounds like this is one of the possible causes of doctors being more affected by the virus, but they don't know for sure. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/health/doctors-coronavirus-health-care-hit-harder/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/health/doctors-coronavirus-he...

SuoDuanDao 7y ago

It seems to me that the health care system in general is one institution that has shown severe signs of strain in this crisis, and perhaps will need to be rethought along with others. Interestingly enough, questioning the health of that particular institution is much more taboo than most in this crisis. Given the practical importance of patient faith in the healthcare provider that may be reasonable, but for my money I'd like to be able to try and imagine a better healthcare system in a public forum without getting downvoted for criticizing its current incarnation.

malandrew 7y ago

> thow are you going to run an economy with the health service in permanent overload? You start rapidly building additional capacity to handle the load.