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earnest answer: because even if it had a 0% fatality rate, the sheer number of people who would be out sick for a week at the same time would decimate the econo

earnest answer: because even if it had a 0% fatality rate, the sheer number of people who would be out sick for a week at the same time would decimate the economy. The bailout package is probably not going to be enough.

DesiLurker 7y ago
are you saying that everyone taking a 2 week pause would irreparably damage us economy, really? more like you will see a V shaped movement in stock market. the main problem right now is that there is a lot of fear and uncertainty in everybodys mind partly because of Italy & spain. and as cases mount that fear will only harden so regardless of whether there is a lock-down or not people wont go out an shop until a sizable portion of population is infected and recovered OR we determine with american data that CFR is indeed quite low (doesn't look like from hospital testing data & they wont do widespread tests). but regardless I do agree bailout package is not gonna be enough.
nutjob2 7y ago
That is a reach. Although people stop spending the delayed demand will return once the danger has gone. People will want holidays and cars that they put off buying. Demand will produce jobs. Even businesses that failed will be replaced by new ones that satisfy new demand. This is different to something like 2008 where people no longer trusted financial and other institutions.
- Gibbon1 7y ago
  I was thinking that too. We've normalized bad responses to finance driven recessions. Where trying to make the finance sector whole results in a half decade of lost ground for the real economy. This is more like pre-1970's recessions where the central banks squeeze the money supply for a couple of months. Or WWII mobilization. In each of those cases the economy came roaring right back due to pent up demand. We will get the worst of both worlds if our response to this is to either a) let it 'run it's course' or b) try to make the finance sector whole. The US is looking at both those options and the result will be catastrophic of they come to pass.

DesiLurker 7y ago

are you saying that everyone taking a 2 week pause would irreparably damage us economy, really? more like you will see a V shaped movement in stock market. the main problem right now is that there is a lot of fear and uncertainty in everybodys mind partly because of Italy & spain. and as cases mount that fear will only harden so regardless of whether there is a lock-down or not people wont go out an shop until a sizable portion of population is infected and recovered OR we determine with american data that CFR is indeed quite low (doesn't look like from hospital testing data & they wont do widespread tests). but regardless I do agree bailout package is not gonna be enough.

nutjob2 7y ago

That is a reach. Although people stop spending the delayed demand will return once the danger has gone. People will want holidays and cars that they put off buying. Demand will produce jobs. Even businesses that failed will be replaced by new ones that satisfy new demand. This is different to something like 2008 where people no longer trusted financial and other institutions.

Gibbon1 7y ago
I was thinking that too. We've normalized bad responses to finance driven recessions. Where trying to make the finance sector whole results in a half decade of lost ground for the real economy. This is more like pre-1970's recessions where the central banks squeeze the money supply for a couple of months. Or WWII mobilization. In each of those cases the economy came roaring right back due to pent up demand. We will get the worst of both worlds if our response to this is to either a) let it 'run it's course' or b) try to make the finance sector whole. The US is looking at both those options and the result will be catastrophic of they come to pass.