3 ms·
TLDR; the article argues that the actual fatality rate is possibly 0.06% as opposed to 1-6% touted in media. The reasoning is based on estimating actual cases
by sytelus 7y ago
TLDR; the article argues that the actual fatality rate is possibly 0.06% as opposed to 1-6% touted in media.
The reasoning is based on estimating actual cases given confirmed cases. For example, in Italian town Vò, the entire population was tested to find a prevalence rate of 2.7%. Apply this to the whole province to estimate actual cases and then divide that by confirmed deaths. So assuming that unconfirmed cases mostly recovered without an event, the actual fatality rate goes down to 0.06%.
Arguably, the author doesn't have a lot of other strong data to back this up. Also, this would imply that a large part of the infected population simply recovered without needing to possibly sick treatment.
If this is true, however, it would mean we just had a 2 trillion dollar party :).
- vmilner 7y ago0.06% is hard to reconcile with 10 out of 712 cases on the Diamond Princess liner proving fatal.
- sytelus 7y agoThe cruise ship with a higher level of density and socialization than New York City is not really comparable with regular townships. Also, the cruise ship population is very biased towards the old population.
- nutjob2 7y agoDensity only affects the speed of spread. It largely[1] doesn't affect how many people will die. Over time everyone will get infected unless the virus is wiped out. [1] there is speculation that greater exposure to the virus may make some people sicker
- whb07 7y agoI don't understand how the whole age thing doesn't make you think for a second your conclusion is a bit misguided. Can you elaborate how you think a population of average age ~60 handles any disease? For reference, a 70 yo has a 1.9% mortality. A 80 yo has 6% mortality rate according to actuarial tables.
- rimliu 7y agoIt is not. This is very age-dependent. Talking averages in COVID context always reminds me that on average each person has a bit less than one boos and a bit less than one testicle.