3 ms·

IFR early estimates from Wuhan are at 0.04-0.12%: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022434v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02

• nopinsight 7y ago
  There is no real consensus regarding IFR yet. I think the best data we have is from Diamond Princess, which is at least 10/712 or ~1.4% and may go up a bit from unresolved 15 serious/critical cases and 100 more active cases. The population there is older, but also have good care. If the Diamond Princess age group represents just 20% of a population (they are not all elderly), population IFR must be >= 1.4%/5 = 0.28% and likely higher. 0.28% is above the IFR upper range from the paper in your comment. “Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1% Estimated CFR for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5% Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18%” By the MRC center at Imperial College: https://twitter.com/MRC_Outbreak/status/1226765905306234881?s=20 https://twitter.com/MRC_Outbreak/status/1226765905306234881?...