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I don't think many people knowing the facts are expecting that. It's that people, including me, dread the moments when the facts become manifest. This will prov

• johnohara 7y ago
  Finishing the math on this is very sobering which is why I was intrigued by the original post. I truly hope John Ioannidis is correct and SARS-CoV-2 is not as virulent. We are about to see in the next week or so.
  • joe_the_user 7y ago
    The big thing is he's making a big assumption that there's some natural limit to the total infection rate that can be achieved by the virus - less than 100% and less than the 30% of the cruise ship. That seems plausible but it's essentially based on zero evidence. Diseases have wiped out societies so there's no rule I can saying Covid couldn't achieve a disastrous 30% penetration of the population. No country has had the guts just say "let's see how far this can go" and fortunately so. An extreme worst case would be maybe 3% of the population dying. The Syrian civil war killed 2% of the Syrian population over several years, so this sounds bad. But US regular death rate is about 0.88% you could fudge and claim people would barely notice. But Covids is a very messy death and would destroy the health care system, which people would notice.