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> So the situation is either that Italy is vastly underestimating cases, or Germany and South Korea have lost a magnitude of corpses somewhere. There is a thir
by im3w1l 7y ago
> So the situation is either that Italy is vastly underestimating cases, or Germany and South Korea have lost a magnitude of corpses somewhere.
There is a third possibility. False positive tests: Germany and South Korea may have less cases than they think they do.
- bmn__ 7y agoProf. Drosten who developed the test says that cannot happen in practice. One would get a false positive result with SARS-1 (de facto extinct) and related coronavirus strains in Asian bats (that have not crossed into humans). Source: https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/coronaskript132.pdf#3 https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/coronaskript132.pdf#3
- shawabawa3 7y ago> Prof. Drosten who developed the test says that cannot happen in practice. Obviously not true False positives are always possible in practice even if they aren't possible in theory Get a bunch of tired lab techs running tests 24/7 and one of them will accidentally write down the wrong result at some point
- cycomanic 7y agoI would not consider that a false positive in the test, maybe in the procedure, but that's quite different. Moreover it is statistically irrelevant, that would maybe account for 1%, but only if they would only note false positives.
- rimliu 7y agoAnd the fourth: there were claims that only 12% Italy's COVID-19 deaths can be directly attributed to COVID-19.
- easytiger 7y agointeresting. this sounds reasonable given its "deaths of people who tested +ve for cv19" and not "deaths of people from complications caused by cv19" Have you got a source?
- kgwgk 7y agoHow many HIV deaths can be directly attributed to the virus? Italy’s way of counting may be preferable to the method in other countries (which I assume will be revised at some point when the full history of covid-19 is studied). And even Italy is undercounting!