6 ms·

http://www.euromomo.eu/ http://www.euromomo.eu/ Mortality across Europe has drastically declined in the past few months. Seems like everyone sitting at home is

http://www.euromomo.eu/ http://www.euromomo.eu/ Mortality across Europe has drastically declined in the past few months. Seems like everyone sitting at home is saving a ton of lives. Fewer accidents, fewer sicknesses, maybe even people eating a bit healthier. Why stop locking yourselves indoors when so many lives are being saved by not leaving home?

antpls 7y ago
It kinda proves the point that covid19 alone is less deadly than many other causes
- cycrutchfield 7y ago
  I don't see how you've come to that conclusion.
  - antpls 7y ago
    Did you look at the charts? If you didn't know there is a global epidemic, would you have been able to see it on these curves? In France and Italy, there were between 50000 and 60000 deaths per month in 2018 and 2019. If most of those people died because of 2 or 3 accumulated factors, covid19 would be just one more factor. But maybe those people would have died one month later anyway without covid19
    - cycrutchfield 7y ago
      I don't understand people like you who can look at the current numbers and say "Oh, it's not so bad" while also conveniently ignoring that the numbers are growing exponentially. People that are raising the alarm are not talking about the numbers now, they are talking about the numbers in the future if nothing is done to address it.
      - antpls 7y ago
        This is a new virus, _no one_ knows about the future. Data we have now could be biased toward an hidden variable we didn't figure out yet.
        cycrutchfield 7y ago
        Well, why don't we just wait around and sit on our hands until hundreds of thousands are dead and this hidden variable makes its presence known? Sounds like a winning strategy to me.
        lifthrasiir 7y ago
        One can predict the future with bounded error bars though. Weeks of observation yielded some numbers including R0 around 2 and CFR around one digit percent (yes, we still don't know if it's around 1% or 2%, but it is certainly not 0.1% [1] or 10%), so 0.1---5% of the total population will die somehow due to COVID-19 if absolutely nothing is done. For the reference, less than 1% of the total population dies each year in developed countries. Enough reason to be alerted. [1] CFR is a function of age (notably among others) and more careful analysis would involve demographics. Still, the rough order of magnitude doesn't change.
      - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
        The numbers are growing exponentially until they don't. You can argue that they would have, had extreme measures not been put in place, and there are reasonable arguments for that. But you have to keep track of the fact that it is an argument you're making and not an observation directly from the data. Otherwise you won't update properly on new information. For example, one thing I've seen people worry about is that there could be huge numbers of undetected infections; one guy quoted me 1.5 million for the US's 40k known cases. This would be wonderful news if true - death rates and hospitalization rates are 37 times smaller than believed, and the theoretical peak is nearer than we'd thought? But I've universally seen people present these scenarios as bad news, because they've internalized "numbers going to grow exponentially" as an observed fact rather than a contingent conclusion.
yread 7y ago
The website itself says they have several weeks of delay in reporting and outbreaks are focal in nature
watwut 7y ago
Europe was not sitting at home for months. Few weeks basically, including most of Itally.
rsynnott 7y ago
Mortality _always_ falls at this time of year. As you can clearly see on the chart. From your own link: > Pooled estimates of all-cause mortality show normal expected levels of mortality in the participating countries. The issue isn't that COVID is killing a lot of people right now on a continental level; in the scheme of things it's a statistical blip. The issue is the _potential_ deaths if it gets broadly out of control. If all Europe had rates similar to Northern Italy, this graph would look very, very different.

antpls 7y ago

It kinda proves the point that covid19 alone is less deadly than many other causes

cycrutchfield 7y ago
I don't see how you've come to that conclusion.
- antpls 7y ago
  Did you look at the charts? If you didn't know there is a global epidemic, would you have been able to see it on these curves? In France and Italy, there were between 50000 and 60000 deaths per month in 2018 and 2019. If most of those people died because of 2 or 3 accumulated factors, covid19 would be just one more factor. But maybe those people would have died one month later anyway without covid19
  - cycrutchfield 7y ago
    I don't understand people like you who can look at the current numbers and say "Oh, it's not so bad" while also conveniently ignoring that the numbers are growing exponentially. People that are raising the alarm are not talking about the numbers now, they are talking about the numbers in the future if nothing is done to address it.
    - antpls 7y ago
      This is a new virus, _no one_ knows about the future. Data we have now could be biased toward an hidden variable we didn't figure out yet.
      - cycrutchfield 7y ago
        Well, why don't we just wait around and sit on our hands until hundreds of thousands are dead and this hidden variable makes its presence known? Sounds like a winning strategy to me.
      - lifthrasiir 7y ago
        One can predict the future with bounded error bars though. Weeks of observation yielded some numbers including R0 around 2 and CFR around one digit percent (yes, we still don't know if it's around 1% or 2%, but it is certainly not 0.1% [1] or 10%), so 0.1---5% of the total population will die somehow due to COVID-19 if absolutely nothing is done. For the reference, less than 1% of the total population dies each year in developed countries. Enough reason to be alerted. [1] CFR is a function of age (notably among others) and more careful analysis would involve demographics. Still, the rough order of magnitude doesn't change.
    - SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
      The numbers are growing exponentially until they don't. You can argue that they would have, had extreme measures not been put in place, and there are reasonable arguments for that. But you have to keep track of the fact that it is an argument you're making and not an observation directly from the data. Otherwise you won't update properly on new information. For example, one thing I've seen people worry about is that there could be huge numbers of undetected infections; one guy quoted me 1.5 million for the US's 40k known cases. This would be wonderful news if true - death rates and hospitalization rates are 37 times smaller than believed, and the theoretical peak is nearer than we'd thought? But I've universally seen people present these scenarios as bad news, because they've internalized "numbers going to grow exponentially" as an observed fact rather than a contingent conclusion.

yread 7y ago

The website itself says they have several weeks of delay in reporting and outbreaks are focal in nature

watwut 7y ago

Europe was not sitting at home for months. Few weeks basically, including most of Itally.

rsynnott 7y ago

Mortality _always_ falls at this time of year. As you can clearly see on the chart. From your own link: > Pooled estimates of all-cause mortality show normal expected levels of mortality in the participating countries. The issue isn't that COVID is killing a lot of people right now on a continental level; in the scheme of things it's a statistical blip. The issue is the _potential_ deaths if it gets broadly out of control. If all Europe had rates similar to Northern Italy, this graph would look very, very different.