4 ms·

The acid test for this article will take place towards the end of this week and into next according to the Surgeon General. Honestly, we're all holding our col

The acid test for this article will take place towards the end of this week and into next according to the Surgeon General. Honestly, we're all holding our collective breath and waiting to see whether or not the U.S. begins to approach the same values associated with the Diamond Princess. So far, the mortality rate of those testing positive, asymptomatic and symtomatic, published by the CDC today, is 0.0119 compared to the DP's 0.013. The mortality rate as a percentage of all passengers and crew aboard the DP is 0.002 (9/3711). The infection rate as a percentage of all passengers and crew aboard the DP is 0.192 (712/3711). Dr. Deborah Brix indicated during today's WH presser that it's possible 70% of the U.S. population will be "exposed" to the virus by the end of 2021. (327,000,000 * 0.70) * 0.19 = 43,491,000 potential positives if the DP number is used. To date in the U.S., the reported percentage testing positive of the total number tested is 0.115. I'm not sure where this number keeps coming from. At the moment, the Diamond Princess represents the best set of data for comparison.

tlrobinson 7y ago
Why do we expect to get better mortality data in the US than other countries?
- johnohara 7y ago
  Social distancing and hygiene hopefully contribute to fewer exposures and therefore fewer fatalities. Especially those 65+ with underlying conditions such as hypertension and diabetes.
  - cycrutchfield 7y ago
    Ah yes, the United States, where our incidence of hypertension, diabetes, obesity, and heart disease are so low.
- joe_the_user 7y ago
  I don't think many people knowing the facts are expecting that. It's that people, including me, dread the moments when the facts become manifest. This will prove us right but I will take no comfort in that confirmation. On the off chance that these (implausible sounding) arguments turn out right, well, woohoo, great.
  - johnohara 7y ago
    Finishing the math on this is very sobering which is why I was intrigued by the original post. I truly hope John Ioannidis is correct and SARS-CoV-2 is not as virulent. We are about to see in the next week or so.
    - joe_the_user 7y ago
      The big thing is he's making a big assumption that there's some natural limit to the total infection rate that can be achieved by the virus - less than 100% and less than the 30% of the cruise ship. That seems plausible but it's essentially based on zero evidence. Diseases have wiped out societies so there's no rule I can saying Covid couldn't achieve a disastrous 30% penetration of the population. No country has had the guts just say "let's see how far this can go" and fortunately so. An extreme worst case would be maybe 3% of the population dying. The Syrian civil war killed 2% of the Syrian population over several years, so this sounds bad. But US regular death rate is about 0.88% you could fudge and claim people would barely notice. But Covids is a very messy death and would destroy the health care system, which people would notice.
cycrutchfield 7y ago
>So far, the mortality rate of those testing positive, asymptomatic and symtomatic, published by the CDC today, is 0.0119 compared to the DP's 0.013. This is completely meaningless. Fatalities lag the start of cases by several weeks. Many people from the existing set of active cases will die in the next few weeks. You really should not use this number to draw any conclusions.
- johnohara 7y ago
  Not drawing any conclusions. Just watching the CDC's number approach the DP's number as a point of comparison. The DP provides an accurate percentage of asymptomatic positives based upon real testing.

tlrobinson 7y ago

Why do we expect to get better mortality data in the US than other countries?

johnohara 7y ago
Social distancing and hygiene hopefully contribute to fewer exposures and therefore fewer fatalities. Especially those 65+ with underlying conditions such as hypertension and diabetes.
- cycrutchfield 7y ago
  Ah yes, the United States, where our incidence of hypertension, diabetes, obesity, and heart disease are so low.
joe_the_user 7y ago
I don't think many people knowing the facts are expecting that. It's that people, including me, dread the moments when the facts become manifest. This will prove us right but I will take no comfort in that confirmation. On the off chance that these (implausible sounding) arguments turn out right, well, woohoo, great.
- johnohara 7y ago
  Finishing the math on this is very sobering which is why I was intrigued by the original post. I truly hope John Ioannidis is correct and SARS-CoV-2 is not as virulent. We are about to see in the next week or so.
  - joe_the_user 7y ago
    The big thing is he's making a big assumption that there's some natural limit to the total infection rate that can be achieved by the virus - less than 100% and less than the 30% of the cruise ship. That seems plausible but it's essentially based on zero evidence. Diseases have wiped out societies so there's no rule I can saying Covid couldn't achieve a disastrous 30% penetration of the population. No country has had the guts just say "let's see how far this can go" and fortunately so. An extreme worst case would be maybe 3% of the population dying. The Syrian civil war killed 2% of the Syrian population over several years, so this sounds bad. But US regular death rate is about 0.88% you could fudge and claim people would barely notice. But Covids is a very messy death and would destroy the health care system, which people would notice.

cycrutchfield 7y ago

>So far, the mortality rate of those testing positive, asymptomatic and symtomatic, published by the CDC today, is 0.0119 compared to the DP's 0.013. This is completely meaningless. Fatalities lag the start of cases by several weeks. Many people from the existing set of active cases will die in the next few weeks. You really should not use this number to draw any conclusions.

johnohara 7y ago
Not drawing any conclusions. Just watching the CDC's number approach the DP's number as a point of comparison. The DP provides an accurate percentage of asymptomatic positives based upon real testing.