5 ms·

I've also heard that 93% of people who think they have Covid-19 are wrong.

bpodgursky 7y ago
You've heard nothing and have no data, because we don't have any Covid-19 antibody tests, so we have no clue who has had and recovered from the disease, unless they were tested while contagious.
- kippinitreal 7y ago
  Not to support a dataless claim...but...isn't the fact that ~90% of tests come back negative (and tests are hard to get) indicative of their point that the vast majority of people who think they have the disease, do not? AFAIK the testing is not random at this time. https://covidtracking.com/data/ https://covidtracking.com/data/
  - MikeAmelung 7y ago
    No, because by the time they get around to testing you, you could be completely devoid of the virus, or it could be only in your lungs, or the test just fails for whatever reason.
    - tzjmetron 7y ago
      Schroedinger's Virus.
  - gameswithgo 7y ago
    there is a ~30% chance you can still have it even with a negative test though
  - lend000 7y ago
    The 93% I last saw is in flux and will continue to go down as flu and colds abate in the northern hemisphere and real coronavirus cases increase. This also doesn't include people who could not get tested because their symptoms were mild, even though they thought they had it.
    - InitialLastName 7y ago
      > This also doesn't include people who could not get tested because their symptoms were mild My partner and I are in that boat (in the NYC area). We had a full week of mild Covid-19 symptoms (I still do not recommend); initially, we couldn't get tested because our fevers weren't high enough and we had no known exposure. By the time we established a known exposure (one of my colleagues got a test while hospitalized with pneumonia, it took a week to come back positive) our symptoms had mostly abated and they would only test sick people. So we'll never know if we had it, but have to both a) continue to isolate (for a variable amount of time, depending on who you ask) under the assumption that we're contagious and b) continue to assume we're still at risk of acquiring it. Strangely, the only symptom I have left is an oscillating sinus headache and anosmia. Fortunately, some testing I did with vanilla extract this morning indicates that my sense of smell might be healing slowly, instead of somehow permanently damaged.
  - throwaway_jobs 7y ago
    The last numbers for tests in NY is 28% positive, and apparently suggesting and infection rate of 1 in 700.
  - monadic2 7y ago
    Well if you think you might have the disease but you're asymptomatic you might not get the test.
jsight 7y ago
I wouldn't go to such a precise number, but you are right that the majority do not end up testing positive. The test quantities are limited, so they try to select candidates that are likely to have it. Even among these, the rate of positive tests seems to have ranged from ~5% up to ~20%.

You've heard nothing and have no data, because we don't have any Covid-19 antibody tests, so we have no clue who has had and recovered from the disease, unless they were tested while contagious.

kippinitreal 7y ago
Not to support a dataless claim...but...isn't the fact that ~90% of tests come back negative (and tests are hard to get) indicative of their point that the vast majority of people who think they have the disease, do not? AFAIK the testing is not random at this time. https://covidtracking.com/data/ https://covidtracking.com/data/
- MikeAmelung 7y ago
  No, because by the time they get around to testing you, you could be completely devoid of the virus, or it could be only in your lungs, or the test just fails for whatever reason.
  - tzjmetron 7y ago
    Schroedinger's Virus.
- gameswithgo 7y ago
  there is a ~30% chance you can still have it even with a negative test though
- lend000 7y ago
  The 93% I last saw is in flux and will continue to go down as flu and colds abate in the northern hemisphere and real coronavirus cases increase. This also doesn't include people who could not get tested because their symptoms were mild, even though they thought they had it.
  - InitialLastName 7y ago
    > This also doesn't include people who could not get tested because their symptoms were mild My partner and I are in that boat (in the NYC area). We had a full week of mild Covid-19 symptoms (I still do not recommend); initially, we couldn't get tested because our fevers weren't high enough and we had no known exposure. By the time we established a known exposure (one of my colleagues got a test while hospitalized with pneumonia, it took a week to come back positive) our symptoms had mostly abated and they would only test sick people. So we'll never know if we had it, but have to both a) continue to isolate (for a variable amount of time, depending on who you ask) under the assumption that we're contagious and b) continue to assume we're still at risk of acquiring it. Strangely, the only symptom I have left is an oscillating sinus headache and anosmia. Fortunately, some testing I did with vanilla extract this morning indicates that my sense of smell might be healing slowly, instead of somehow permanently damaged.
- throwaway_jobs 7y ago
  The last numbers for tests in NY is 28% positive, and apparently suggesting and infection rate of 1 in 700.
- monadic2 7y ago
  Well if you think you might have the disease but you're asymptomatic you might not get the test.

jsight 7y ago

I wouldn't go to such a precise number, but you are right that the majority do not end up testing positive. The test quantities are limited, so they try to select candidates that are likely to have it. Even among these, the rate of positive tests seems to have ranged from ~5% up to ~20%.