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The great depression had numerous additional problems that do not exist right now, including a global tariff war that was far beyond anything that went on with
by adventured 7y ago
The great depression had numerous additional problems that do not exist right now, including a global tariff war that was far beyond anything that went on with the US and China.
The central bank was mostly incapable of doing anything during the great depression. Today the central bank can shove $100 billion into JP Morgan if it's about to tip over and do it in a matter of hours. The Fed can set up a national small business credit line to the tune of $2 trillion and do it in a week or two (in this case the logistics are far more difficult than the money).
The US had no social safety net at all in 1933. The US remarkably saw a decline in homelessness between 2004 and 2011, despite the great recession, due to the very successful housing first programs run by the Bush and Obama Administrations. The existence and expansion of food aid programs during the great recession helped to prevent large bread lines. The great depression had no such national effort, much less one that was rapid and effective.
If we absolutely needed to do it, we can shovel $12,000 into the pocket of every adult in the country over the coming year. $36,000 per family of four. It would have a brutal cost, something along the lines of $3 trillion for a year. We would have to force our borrowing costs lower by using the Fed to manipulate those rates low, so we can afford to deal with the long-term costs of all of this - but we can do it. The US can't afford to spend $20 trillion on this diaster, but it can spend $3 to $5 trillion (and there will be hell to pay after, in the form of interest costs and plausibly tax increases (I won't hold my breath for fiscal responsibility in DC)).
What we can't do, is allow this to happen again anytime soon, and that will require numerous large changes globally, including to international trade.