14 ms·

What percentage of meals were previously consumed outside the home, at workplaces, schools and daycares? Add all of those to the baseline grocery shopping rates

What percentage of meals were previously consumed outside the home, at workplaces, schools and daycares? Add all of those to the baseline grocery shopping rates pre-coronavirus, add on some anxiety factor, and you'll have the new baseline. Similar for toilet paper in stores. Previously you spent 8-12 hours at work using your company's supply, now you have to use and buy your own. The in-home usage per day has pretty much doubled and shifted to retail.

bilbo0s 7y ago
>The base in-home usage per day has pretty much doubled. And the base work, day care, and restaurant usage has plummeted. That's the thing about logistics and supply, a person can only use so much toilet paper for example. Once you've delivered 4 or 5 times the supply necessary for the population of a city, you're wasting effort. There is a distribution problem in that supply node, not really a logistics problem with the system. We have distribution inefficiencies in many of our "supply nodes", no question. But these are not inefficiencies that airlines, or even traditional freight companies, can solve.
tclancy 7y ago
And the toilet paper that was in work is getting used how?
- bdamm 7y ago
  The point is that it's a different flow of resources, e.g. retail distribution vs commercial property management supply.
- cpwright 7y ago
  The work toilet paper is more likely to be 1-ply recycled toilet paper in large rolls than what people would buy for a home. The factories that produce commercial TP may not be able to convert to the preferred residential products quickly.
  - praxulus 7y ago
    If grocery stores run out of 2-ply but still offer 1-ply, people will buy 1-ply for home.
  - nkrisc 7y ago
    All they have to do is make smaller rolls and people will still buy it if there's a shortage, regardless of ply.
  - Symbiote 7y ago
    It is probably the same factory making it. For example, Andrex (apparently Cottonelle in the USA) is owned by Kimberly Clark, which also sells commercial products.
- rtkwe 7y ago
  Who uses industrial/commercial toilet paper in their homes? The factories can stop creating more but the existing supply is locked in large rolls most people don't use in their homes. Even not in large rolls it's not as nice as most toilet paper people use in their houses.
  - kortilla 7y ago
    Put it on the shelves anyway. Most people aren’t going to be picky when the option is that or your hand.
    - paulmd 7y ago
      there's always the poop sponge! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xylospongium https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xylospongium
  - mirimir 7y ago
    I do. Rolls last longer. The paper doesn't shred so readily. You need more sheets, but less total mass. You can wipe mirrors and sinks without leaving paper residue behind.
jjdfkkr 7y ago
Maybe you weirdos that like wadded poop paper in your hands could buy a bidet attachment How much gas and paper do we waste on ass wipe? For what reason? Back in the day it was propaganda to have shelves full. FU Soviets! Now it’s just following orders. If you think you’re hashing anything useful out here, why not “why toilet paper?” How does that change the logistics if bidet ownership spikes. Look at all those logistics freed for other shit! But let’s keep circling the bowl with this talk of consuming paper products we don’t need to even generate at such scale. Oh but think of the quarterly growth stats in 2-ply! BUY BUY BUY This country is weird in all the wrong ways
nomel 7y ago
Restaurants buy their food also. There should be some decrease in restaurant supplies, although I suspect the prepared food has much more water content.
foota 7y ago
I did think about this. There probably is some adjustment that needs to happen with the supply chains, but to some degree it's just changing the endpoints a little bit.
andybak 7y ago
> Similar for toilet paper in stores. Previously you spent 8-12 hours at work using your company's supply, You've missed one possible mitigating factor. Many people save their more... erm... resource-demanding toilet activities for home. ;-)
- AlgorithmicTime 7y ago
  The old saying goes "Boss makes a dollar, I make a dime, that's why I shit on company time."
- irrational 7y ago
  I honestly have no idea what you are trying to say here. Are you saying that many people only poop at home?
  - twomoretime 7y ago
    Hilarious, but I've known numerous people who will only use the company bathrooms as a last resort.
  - wahern 7y ago
    Ever notice how many animals poop wherever and whenever they need? Humans are one of the few species with a socially mediated pooping reflex--that is, the urge to defecate is attenuated when around other people. This attenuation is stronger for some people than others. At the extreme end of the spectrum, some are very nearly physically incapable of defecating in the presence of other people.
    - kortilla 7y ago
      Does your office not have bathrooms to allow people to poop in privacy?
      - wahern 7y ago
        Define privacy. American-style stalls don't permit very much privacy, though in any event "private" is in the mind of the person. That's what makes it interesting--a person's feeling of privacy mediates a very basic physiological function.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
chrischen 7y ago
Restaurants are still open.
- sbierwagen 7y ago
  In some states, yes, but not for much longer.
  - akhilcacharya 7y ago
    In which states will they not be? They’re considered essential even in shelter in place states
    - dragonwriter 7y ago
      California has one of the stricter shelter-in-place orders and everything connected to food supply, including prepared food, is essential. Restaurants are delivery/takeout only, but still operating. Now, it's probably true that on average the share of food consumed from restaurants has dropped, but the sector isn't closed down.
      - chrischen 7y ago
        I'd imagine though that people are still eating roughly the same amount of food, so if restaurant sales have dropped then grocery store sales must have gone up (which I guess they did given the hoarding).
  - rootusrootus 7y ago
    We're already testing the waters on how much the public will tolerate. We have to keep the supply lines running or people will stop complying.
bb611 7y ago
I'm not sure anyone is tracking this in an accessible way, but school meals almost everywhere are likely still available. Schools have large minimum orders sizes and federal/state funding is tied around providing food, so they're highly incentivized to figure out how to distribute it in order to get the cashflow to pay off those contractual obligations.
- v64 7y ago
  In my city, those meals are currently available for curbside pickup for students.
jedberg 7y ago
> now you have to use and buy your own. Yeah, but the office was buying it at Costco too, and now they aren't. The total demand for TP hasn't increased, it's just shifted. Once everyone has a stockpile at home, they won't buy it anymore. Same with food. The restaurants were buying it and now consumers are instead. The demand is shifting but the level is the same.
- luckylion 7y ago
  Don't consumers have more food waste than restaurants? I believe I read something about that a while ago. You're right for TP though. Imho that was simply a reaction to people understanding "you might have to be quarantined at home" as "you can't go out or get things delivered during that time, ever", and preparing adequately. Once they have their stash and/or realize that quarantined doesn't mean post-apocalyptic head-for-the-bunker, they'll relax and return to normal rates. It's important to quickly stock the shelves though, empty shelves make people nervous, and they'll overreact when they're nervous, buying more than they need ("the government and companies can't handle this situation, better stock up") and thus increase the problem.
  - thechao 7y ago
    Any future movies that take place in an apocalypse and don’t reference toilet paper are going to have real fidelity issues.
  - vidarh 7y ago
    There was also a "everyone else is stripping the shelves bare, I better get some" reaction. I've tried to avoid buying more than I think I genuinely need, but my idea of what I genuinely need definitively shifted when I saw I could not easily get relative essentials near me because other people were buying as much as they could possibly get. I've stuck with a relatively conservative 2-3 week supply of noodles and rice, and the kind of toilet paper supply I'd normally buy anyway but where I'd previously be ok with waiting until I had a couple of rolls left before reordering. But that is mentally more effort than just panic-buying - I'm ok with 2-3 weeks because I've kept a close eye on supplies and know I can still top up, but if I'd just panic bought everything I could get my hands on I wouldn't have needed to put the effort into keeping track. And even millions of people trying to be similarly restrained but accounting for the reality that others aren't still has a massive negative effect. Overall I agree with you that it needs to bottom out soon, though. And I also very much agree about the psychological effect of keeping shelves look stocked.
DingleDook101 7y ago
Who the hell shits at work?

bilbo0s 7y ago

>The base in-home usage per day has pretty much doubled. And the base work, day care, and restaurant usage has plummeted. That's the thing about logistics and supply, a person can only use so much toilet paper for example. Once you've delivered 4 or 5 times the supply necessary for the population of a city, you're wasting effort. There is a distribution problem in that supply node, not really a logistics problem with the system. We have distribution inefficiencies in many of our "supply nodes", no question. But these are not inefficiencies that airlines, or even traditional freight companies, can solve.

tclancy 7y ago

And the toilet paper that was in work is getting used how?

bdamm 7y ago
The point is that it's a different flow of resources, e.g. retail distribution vs commercial property management supply.
cpwright 7y ago
The work toilet paper is more likely to be 1-ply recycled toilet paper in large rolls than what people would buy for a home. The factories that produce commercial TP may not be able to convert to the preferred residential products quickly.
- praxulus 7y ago
  If grocery stores run out of 2-ply but still offer 1-ply, people will buy 1-ply for home.
- nkrisc 7y ago
  All they have to do is make smaller rolls and people will still buy it if there's a shortage, regardless of ply.
- Symbiote 7y ago
  It is probably the same factory making it. For example, Andrex (apparently Cottonelle in the USA) is owned by Kimberly Clark, which also sells commercial products.
rtkwe 7y ago
Who uses industrial/commercial toilet paper in their homes? The factories can stop creating more but the existing supply is locked in large rolls most people don't use in their homes. Even not in large rolls it's not as nice as most toilet paper people use in their houses.
- kortilla 7y ago
  Put it on the shelves anyway. Most people aren’t going to be picky when the option is that or your hand.
  - paulmd 7y ago
    there's always the poop sponge! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xylospongium https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xylospongium
- mirimir 7y ago
  I do. Rolls last longer. The paper doesn't shred so readily. You need more sheets, but less total mass. You can wipe mirrors and sinks without leaving paper residue behind.

jjdfkkr 7y ago

Maybe you weirdos that like wadded poop paper in your hands could buy a bidet attachment How much gas and paper do we waste on ass wipe? For what reason? Back in the day it was propaganda to have shelves full. FU Soviets! Now it’s just following orders. If you think you’re hashing anything useful out here, why not “why toilet paper?” How does that change the logistics if bidet ownership spikes. Look at all those logistics freed for other shit! But let’s keep circling the bowl with this talk of consuming paper products we don’t need to even generate at such scale. Oh but think of the quarterly growth stats in 2-ply! BUY BUY BUY This country is weird in all the wrong ways

nomel 7y ago

Restaurants buy their food also. There should be some decrease in restaurant supplies, although I suspect the prepared food has much more water content.

foota 7y ago

I did think about this. There probably is some adjustment that needs to happen with the supply chains, but to some degree it's just changing the endpoints a little bit.

andybak 7y ago

> Similar for toilet paper in stores. Previously you spent 8-12 hours at work using your company's supply, You've missed one possible mitigating factor. Many people save their more... erm... resource-demanding toilet activities for home. ;-)

AlgorithmicTime 7y ago
The old saying goes "Boss makes a dollar, I make a dime, that's why I shit on company time."
irrational 7y ago
I honestly have no idea what you are trying to say here. Are you saying that many people only poop at home?
- twomoretime 7y ago
  Hilarious, but I've known numerous people who will only use the company bathrooms as a last resort.
- wahern 7y ago
  Ever notice how many animals poop wherever and whenever they need? Humans are one of the few species with a socially mediated pooping reflex--that is, the urge to defecate is attenuated when around other people. This attenuation is stronger for some people than others. At the extreme end of the spectrum, some are very nearly physically incapable of defecating in the presence of other people.
  - kortilla 7y ago
    Does your office not have bathrooms to allow people to poop in privacy?
    - wahern 7y ago
      Define privacy. American-style stalls don't permit very much privacy, though in any event "private" is in the mind of the person. That's what makes it interesting--a person's feeling of privacy mediates a very basic physiological function.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

chrischen 7y ago

Restaurants are still open.

sbierwagen 7y ago
In some states, yes, but not for much longer.
- akhilcacharya 7y ago
  In which states will they not be? They’re considered essential even in shelter in place states
  - dragonwriter 7y ago
    California has one of the stricter shelter-in-place orders and everything connected to food supply, including prepared food, is essential. Restaurants are delivery/takeout only, but still operating. Now, it's probably true that on average the share of food consumed from restaurants has dropped, but the sector isn't closed down.
    - chrischen 7y ago
      I'd imagine though that people are still eating roughly the same amount of food, so if restaurant sales have dropped then grocery store sales must have gone up (which I guess they did given the hoarding).
- rootusrootus 7y ago
  We're already testing the waters on how much the public will tolerate. We have to keep the supply lines running or people will stop complying.

bb611 7y ago

I'm not sure anyone is tracking this in an accessible way, but school meals almost everywhere are likely still available. Schools have large minimum orders sizes and federal/state funding is tied around providing food, so they're highly incentivized to figure out how to distribute it in order to get the cashflow to pay off those contractual obligations.

v64 7y ago
In my city, those meals are currently available for curbside pickup for students.

jedberg 7y ago

> now you have to use and buy your own. Yeah, but the office was buying it at Costco too, and now they aren't. The total demand for TP hasn't increased, it's just shifted. Once everyone has a stockpile at home, they won't buy it anymore. Same with food. The restaurants were buying it and now consumers are instead. The demand is shifting but the level is the same.

luckylion 7y ago
Don't consumers have more food waste than restaurants? I believe I read something about that a while ago. You're right for TP though. Imho that was simply a reaction to people understanding "you might have to be quarantined at home" as "you can't go out or get things delivered during that time, ever", and preparing adequately. Once they have their stash and/or realize that quarantined doesn't mean post-apocalyptic head-for-the-bunker, they'll relax and return to normal rates. It's important to quickly stock the shelves though, empty shelves make people nervous, and they'll overreact when they're nervous, buying more than they need ("the government and companies can't handle this situation, better stock up") and thus increase the problem.
- thechao 7y ago
  Any future movies that take place in an apocalypse and don’t reference toilet paper are going to have real fidelity issues.
- vidarh 7y ago
  There was also a "everyone else is stripping the shelves bare, I better get some" reaction. I've tried to avoid buying more than I think I genuinely need, but my idea of what I genuinely need definitively shifted when I saw I could not easily get relative essentials near me because other people were buying as much as they could possibly get. I've stuck with a relatively conservative 2-3 week supply of noodles and rice, and the kind of toilet paper supply I'd normally buy anyway but where I'd previously be ok with waiting until I had a couple of rolls left before reordering. But that is mentally more effort than just panic-buying - I'm ok with 2-3 weeks because I've kept a close eye on supplies and know I can still top up, but if I'd just panic bought everything I could get my hands on I wouldn't have needed to put the effort into keeping track. And even millions of people trying to be similarly restrained but accounting for the reality that others aren't still has a massive negative effect. Overall I agree with you that it needs to bottom out soon, though. And I also very much agree about the psychological effect of keeping shelves look stocked.

DingleDook101 7y ago

Who the hell shits at work?