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>Generally speaking there isn't a lack of logistics capacity right now How sure are you about that? In my large Texas city, grocery stores have been packed all

>Generally speaking there isn't a lack of logistics capacity right now How sure are you about that? In my large Texas city, grocery stores have been packed all day every day for like 2 weeks. How long can out country operate at such capacity before supply shortages start? Stores are already unable to keep shelves stocked.,.

foota 7y ago
How long can our country continue to purchase at the current rate before everyone has built a stockpile?
- bilbo0s 7y ago
  This. Logistics has a built in circuit breaker. Whether you're talking about military use cases or civilian use cases. At some point, you will just have too much on the ground. No more will fit. At that point, it's a question of distributing the oversupply of what's already there in a fashion appropriate to the purpose of the day.
- Androider 7y ago
  What percentage of meals were previously consumed outside the home, at workplaces, schools and daycares? Add all of those to the baseline grocery shopping rates pre-coronavirus, add on some anxiety factor, and you'll have the new baseline. Similar for toilet paper in stores. Previously you spent 8-12 hours at work using your company's supply, now you have to use and buy your own. The in-home usage per day has pretty much doubled and shifted to retail.
  - bilbo0s 7y ago
    >The base in-home usage per day has pretty much doubled. And the base work, day care, and restaurant usage has plummeted. That's the thing about logistics and supply, a person can only use so much toilet paper for example. Once you've delivered 4 or 5 times the supply necessary for the population of a city, you're wasting effort. There is a distribution problem in that supply node, not really a logistics problem with the system. We have distribution inefficiencies in many of our "supply nodes", no question. But these are not inefficiencies that airlines, or even traditional freight companies, can solve.
  - tclancy 7y ago
    And the toilet paper that was in work is getting used how?
    - bdamm 7y ago
      The point is that it's a different flow of resources, e.g. retail distribution vs commercial property management supply.
    - cpwright 7y ago
      The work toilet paper is more likely to be 1-ply recycled toilet paper in large rolls than what people would buy for a home. The factories that produce commercial TP may not be able to convert to the preferred residential products quickly.
      - praxulus 7y ago
        If grocery stores run out of 2-ply but still offer 1-ply, people will buy 1-ply for home.
      - nkrisc 7y ago
        All they have to do is make smaller rolls and people will still buy it if there's a shortage, regardless of ply.
      - Symbiote 7y ago
        It is probably the same factory making it. For example, Andrex (apparently Cottonelle in the USA) is owned by Kimberly Clark, which also sells commercial products.
    - rtkwe 7y ago
      Who uses industrial/commercial toilet paper in their homes? The factories can stop creating more but the existing supply is locked in large rolls most people don't use in their homes. Even not in large rolls it's not as nice as most toilet paper people use in their houses.
      - 7y ago
  - jjdfkkr 7y ago
    Maybe you weirdos that like wadded poop paper in your hands could buy a bidet attachment How much gas and paper do we waste on ass wipe? For what reason? Back in the day it was propaganda to have shelves full. FU Soviets! Now it’s just following orders. If you think you’re hashing anything useful out here, why not “why toilet paper?” How does that change the logistics if bidet ownership spikes. Look at all those logistics freed for other shit! But let’s keep circling the bowl with this talk of consuming paper products we don’t need to even generate at such scale. Oh but think of the quarterly growth stats in 2-ply! BUY BUY BUY This country is weird in all the wrong ways
  - nomel 7y ago
    Restaurants buy their food also. There should be some decrease in restaurant supplies, although I suspect the prepared food has much more water content.
  - foota 7y ago
    I did think about this. There probably is some adjustment that needs to happen with the supply chains, but to some degree it's just changing the endpoints a little bit.
  - andybak 7y ago
    > Similar for toilet paper in stores. Previously you spent 8-12 hours at work using your company's supply, You've missed one possible mitigating factor. Many people save their more... erm... resource-demanding toilet activities for home. ;-)
    - AlgorithmicTime 7y ago
      The old saying goes "Boss makes a dollar, I make a dime, that's why I shit on company time."
    - irrational 7y ago
      I honestly have no idea what you are trying to say here. Are you saying that many people only poop at home?
      - twomoretime 7y ago
        Hilarious, but I've known numerous people who will only use the company bathrooms as a last resort.
      - wahern 7y ago
        Ever notice how many animals poop wherever and whenever they need? Humans are one of the few species with a socially mediated pooping reflex--that is, the urge to defecate is attenuated when around other people. This attenuation is stronger for some people than others. At the extreme end of the spectrum, some are very nearly physically incapable of defecating in the presence of other people.
        kortilla 7y ago
        Does your office not have bathrooms to allow people to poop in privacy?
        wahern 7y ago
        Define privacy. American-style stalls don't permit very much privacy, though in any event "private" is in the mind of the person. That's what makes it interesting--a person's feeling of privacy mediates a very basic physiological function.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - chrischen 7y ago
    Restaurants are still open.
    - sbierwagen 7y ago
      In some states, yes, but not for much longer.
      - akhilcacharya 7y ago
        In which states will they not be? They’re considered essential even in shelter in place states
        dragonwriter 7y ago
        California has one of the stricter shelter-in-place orders and everything connected to food supply, including prepared food, is essential. Restaurants are delivery/takeout only, but still operating. Now, it's probably true that on average the share of food consumed from restaurants has dropped, but the sector isn't closed down.
        chrischen 7y ago
        I'd imagine though that people are still eating roughly the same amount of food, so if restaurant sales have dropped then grocery store sales must have gone up (which I guess they did given the hoarding).
      - rootusrootus 7y ago
        We're already testing the waters on how much the public will tolerate. We have to keep the supply lines running or people will stop complying.
  - bb611 7y ago
    I'm not sure anyone is tracking this in an accessible way, but school meals almost everywhere are likely still available. Schools have large minimum orders sizes and federal/state funding is tied around providing food, so they're highly incentivized to figure out how to distribute it in order to get the cashflow to pay off those contractual obligations.
    - v64 7y ago
      In my city, those meals are currently available for curbside pickup for students.
  - jedberg 7y ago
    > now you have to use and buy your own. Yeah, but the office was buying it at Costco too, and now they aren't. The total demand for TP hasn't increased, it's just shifted. Once everyone has a stockpile at home, they won't buy it anymore. Same with food. The restaurants were buying it and now consumers are instead. The demand is shifting but the level is the same.
    - luckylion 7y ago
      Don't consumers have more food waste than restaurants? I believe I read something about that a while ago. You're right for TP though. Imho that was simply a reaction to people understanding "you might have to be quarantined at home" as "you can't go out or get things delivered during that time, ever", and preparing adequately. Once they have their stash and/or realize that quarantined doesn't mean post-apocalyptic head-for-the-bunker, they'll relax and return to normal rates. It's important to quickly stock the shelves though, empty shelves make people nervous, and they'll overreact when they're nervous, buying more than they need ("the government and companies can't handle this situation, better stock up") and thus increase the problem.
      - thechao 7y ago
        Any future movies that take place in an apocalypse and don’t reference toilet paper are going to have real fidelity issues.
      - vidarh 7y ago
        There was also a "everyone else is stripping the shelves bare, I better get some" reaction. I've tried to avoid buying more than I think I genuinely need, but my idea of what I genuinely need definitively shifted when I saw I could not easily get relative essentials near me because other people were buying as much as they could possibly get. I've stuck with a relatively conservative 2-3 week supply of noodles and rice, and the kind of toilet paper supply I'd normally buy anyway but where I'd previously be ok with waiting until I had a couple of rolls left before reordering. But that is mentally more effort than just panic-buying - I'm ok with 2-3 weeks because I've kept a close eye on supplies and know I can still top up, but if I'd just panic bought everything I could get my hands on I wouldn't have needed to put the effort into keeping track. And even millions of people trying to be similarly restrained but accounting for the reality that others aren't still has a massive negative effect. Overall I agree with you that it needs to bottom out soon, though. And I also very much agree about the psychological effect of keeping shelves look stocked.
  - DingleDook101 7y ago
    Who the hell shits at work?
- o-__-o 7y ago
  The average person needs 7 gallons of water, 28 cans of meat, and 14 cans of fruit per 2 weeks. For a month long stockpile that comes out to 21 gallons of water, 84 cans of protein, and 42 cans of fruit. However everyone is probably stocking up on bananas and potatoes and fresh meats which will start to go bad after a week.
  - thechao 7y ago
    Water comes from the tap? It’s not the end of the world, dude; it’s just a high-anxiety staycation.
  - adamc 7y ago
    "Cans of meat"? I don't think I ever buy meat in cans...
    - gwright 7y ago
      Tuna and chicken are pretty common in cans. Spam is another example. In any case I bought a couple weeks worth over a month ago when I saw what was coming.
    - namibj 7y ago
      That measurement is pretty bad anyways. Maybe they'll provide better units we can actually discuss on.
  - Dylan16807 7y ago
    Two cans of meat per day? Is this a diet that has no starch in it, or something? > However everyone is probably stocking up on bananas and potatoes and fresh meats which will start to go bad after a week. I doubt people are overbuying bananas too much, but more importantly meat can go in the freezer and something is wrong with your potatoes.
rockostrich 7y ago
Those people are eating the same amount of food one way or another, it's just being purchased by individuals now instead of local businesses.
duxup 7y ago
Outside of some specific items I'm seeing grocery stores well stocked and quickly restocking (my visibility is not perfect here). The real concern would be if the outbreak were to suddenly sideline huge amounts of truck drivers / pilots / etc. But many 'non essential' or 'seeing less demand' warehouses are shutting down / not busy, and that frees up a lot to focus on other things. Also truck drivers are now allowed to exceed their usual maximum driving hours ... and they are moving fast traffic wise. As far as truck drivers and etc I'm seeing warehouses isolate drivers where previously the driver was not isolated. They're providing them an isolated room and etc to limit contact between delivery point personnel or warehouses. Logistics in the US is strange, surprisingly low tech sometimes, but also very flexible industry. Outside still fairly flexible as well.
- twomoretime 7y ago
  >The real concern would be if the outbreak were to suddenly sideline huge amounts of truck drivers / pilots / etc I'm counting on some disruption. Even during isolation these people are basically walking infection vectors because of the nature of their jobs - loading/unloading (touching and breathing on) goods carried across the country. And I doubt we currently have the PPE for them...
  - duxup 7y ago
    I feel like that seems somewhat likely but like most things I'm not at all sure how much we will see it.
derefr 7y ago
Grocery stores are satisfied almost entirely by domestic freight carriers (this could be said to be one of the definitions of a grocery store); in non-expedited domestic shipping, rail+truck are far-and-away the lowest-overhead carriers, with air not even entering the picture. Air (and sea) are for international and/or expedited freight, neither of which matter to shipping cabbages or cereal. If grocery stores sell faster, and so requested more resupply, you'd just see more 18-wheelers on the road and more freight-trains passing through. Neither "infrastructure" of which is operated anywhere near its capacity.
- twomoretime 7y ago
  I mean...there's a limit somewhere, isn't there? I'm not expecting grocery store supply chains to maintain 2x raw supplies reserved and manufacturing capacity...at the very least with the economy in the tank some of these factories that feed stores are going to shut down... And as for farmed foods you can't just flip a switch when everyone is panic buying. Unless you mean to say we throw away half of the harvest under normal conditions.
  - klodolph 7y ago
    Having the economy in the tank doesn’t shut down factories directly, it does it indirectly, e.g. by drying up demand. Demand for groceries is up. Food demand is relatively inelastic. What changes is which food has demand. The supply chain for food is complicated, to say the least, but one of the things about food is that we’ve been working on extending shelf life for the past hundred years, and transport food globally, and it really shows. You can buy apples at the supermarket right now, even though they went out of season in October. If you had to think for a moment about when “in season” is for apples, well, the reason why you had to pause and think is because the modern supply chain gives you apples year round. The only way it can do that is by having a massive stockpile of shelf-stable apples which are sourced from both hemispheres. As a matter of details, people aren’t really eating more or less, we’re just getting different foods through different channels, and the long & complicated supply chain takes a while to switch over. I just want to emphasize again that the supply chain is a real beast. Because of the nature of the beast, it has to have excess capacity, because it is just so damn inefficient. > And as for farmed foods you can't just flip a switch when everyone is panic buying. There’s enough slack in the supply chain to absorb panic buying, if you wait it out. Anecdotally, panic buying is drying up in NYC and we’re getting closer to steady state.
davidw 7y ago
Italy still has well-stocked shelves from what I've heard. I am not too worried about it once the panic buying subsides.
jacksnipe 7y ago
Trucking capacity is definitely being stretched to its limit, but I don't know about Air.

foota 7y ago

How long can our country continue to purchase at the current rate before everyone has built a stockpile?

bilbo0s 7y ago
This. Logistics has a built in circuit breaker. Whether you're talking about military use cases or civilian use cases. At some point, you will just have too much on the ground. No more will fit. At that point, it's a question of distributing the oversupply of what's already there in a fashion appropriate to the purpose of the day.
Androider 7y ago
What percentage of meals were previously consumed outside the home, at workplaces, schools and daycares? Add all of those to the baseline grocery shopping rates pre-coronavirus, add on some anxiety factor, and you'll have the new baseline. Similar for toilet paper in stores. Previously you spent 8-12 hours at work using your company's supply, now you have to use and buy your own. The in-home usage per day has pretty much doubled and shifted to retail.
- bilbo0s 7y ago
  >The base in-home usage per day has pretty much doubled. And the base work, day care, and restaurant usage has plummeted. That's the thing about logistics and supply, a person can only use so much toilet paper for example. Once you've delivered 4 or 5 times the supply necessary for the population of a city, you're wasting effort. There is a distribution problem in that supply node, not really a logistics problem with the system. We have distribution inefficiencies in many of our "supply nodes", no question. But these are not inefficiencies that airlines, or even traditional freight companies, can solve.
- tclancy 7y ago
  And the toilet paper that was in work is getting used how?
  - bdamm 7y ago
    The point is that it's a different flow of resources, e.g. retail distribution vs commercial property management supply.
  - cpwright 7y ago
    The work toilet paper is more likely to be 1-ply recycled toilet paper in large rolls than what people would buy for a home. The factories that produce commercial TP may not be able to convert to the preferred residential products quickly.
    - praxulus 7y ago
      If grocery stores run out of 2-ply but still offer 1-ply, people will buy 1-ply for home.
    - nkrisc 7y ago
      All they have to do is make smaller rolls and people will still buy it if there's a shortage, regardless of ply.
    - Symbiote 7y ago
      It is probably the same factory making it. For example, Andrex (apparently Cottonelle in the USA) is owned by Kimberly Clark, which also sells commercial products.
  - rtkwe 7y ago
    Who uses industrial/commercial toilet paper in their homes? The factories can stop creating more but the existing supply is locked in large rolls most people don't use in their homes. Even not in large rolls it's not as nice as most toilet paper people use in their houses.
    - 7y ago
- jjdfkkr 7y ago
  Maybe you weirdos that like wadded poop paper in your hands could buy a bidet attachment How much gas and paper do we waste on ass wipe? For what reason? Back in the day it was propaganda to have shelves full. FU Soviets! Now it’s just following orders. If you think you’re hashing anything useful out here, why not “why toilet paper?” How does that change the logistics if bidet ownership spikes. Look at all those logistics freed for other shit! But let’s keep circling the bowl with this talk of consuming paper products we don’t need to even generate at such scale. Oh but think of the quarterly growth stats in 2-ply! BUY BUY BUY This country is weird in all the wrong ways
- nomel 7y ago
  Restaurants buy their food also. There should be some decrease in restaurant supplies, although I suspect the prepared food has much more water content.
- foota 7y ago
  I did think about this. There probably is some adjustment that needs to happen with the supply chains, but to some degree it's just changing the endpoints a little bit.
- andybak 7y ago
  > Similar for toilet paper in stores. Previously you spent 8-12 hours at work using your company's supply, You've missed one possible mitigating factor. Many people save their more... erm... resource-demanding toilet activities for home. ;-)
  - AlgorithmicTime 7y ago
    The old saying goes "Boss makes a dollar, I make a dime, that's why I shit on company time."
  - irrational 7y ago
    I honestly have no idea what you are trying to say here. Are you saying that many people only poop at home?
    - twomoretime 7y ago
      Hilarious, but I've known numerous people who will only use the company bathrooms as a last resort.
    - wahern 7y ago
      Ever notice how many animals poop wherever and whenever they need? Humans are one of the few species with a socially mediated pooping reflex--that is, the urge to defecate is attenuated when around other people. This attenuation is stronger for some people than others. At the extreme end of the spectrum, some are very nearly physically incapable of defecating in the presence of other people.
      - kortilla 7y ago
        Does your office not have bathrooms to allow people to poop in privacy?
        wahern 7y ago
        Define privacy. American-style stalls don't permit very much privacy, though in any event "private" is in the mind of the person. That's what makes it interesting--a person's feeling of privacy mediates a very basic physiological function.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- chrischen 7y ago
  Restaurants are still open.
  - sbierwagen 7y ago
    In some states, yes, but not for much longer.
    - akhilcacharya 7y ago
      In which states will they not be? They’re considered essential even in shelter in place states
      - dragonwriter 7y ago
        California has one of the stricter shelter-in-place orders and everything connected to food supply, including prepared food, is essential. Restaurants are delivery/takeout only, but still operating. Now, it's probably true that on average the share of food consumed from restaurants has dropped, but the sector isn't closed down.
        chrischen 7y ago
        I'd imagine though that people are still eating roughly the same amount of food, so if restaurant sales have dropped then grocery store sales must have gone up (which I guess they did given the hoarding).
    - rootusrootus 7y ago
      We're already testing the waters on how much the public will tolerate. We have to keep the supply lines running or people will stop complying.
- bb611 7y ago
  I'm not sure anyone is tracking this in an accessible way, but school meals almost everywhere are likely still available. Schools have large minimum orders sizes and federal/state funding is tied around providing food, so they're highly incentivized to figure out how to distribute it in order to get the cashflow to pay off those contractual obligations.
  - v64 7y ago
    In my city, those meals are currently available for curbside pickup for students.
- jedberg 7y ago
  > now you have to use and buy your own. Yeah, but the office was buying it at Costco too, and now they aren't. The total demand for TP hasn't increased, it's just shifted. Once everyone has a stockpile at home, they won't buy it anymore. Same with food. The restaurants were buying it and now consumers are instead. The demand is shifting but the level is the same.
  - luckylion 7y ago
    Don't consumers have more food waste than restaurants? I believe I read something about that a while ago. You're right for TP though. Imho that was simply a reaction to people understanding "you might have to be quarantined at home" as "you can't go out or get things delivered during that time, ever", and preparing adequately. Once they have their stash and/or realize that quarantined doesn't mean post-apocalyptic head-for-the-bunker, they'll relax and return to normal rates. It's important to quickly stock the shelves though, empty shelves make people nervous, and they'll overreact when they're nervous, buying more than they need ("the government and companies can't handle this situation, better stock up") and thus increase the problem.
    - thechao 7y ago
      Any future movies that take place in an apocalypse and don’t reference toilet paper are going to have real fidelity issues.
    - vidarh 7y ago
      There was also a "everyone else is stripping the shelves bare, I better get some" reaction. I've tried to avoid buying more than I think I genuinely need, but my idea of what I genuinely need definitively shifted when I saw I could not easily get relative essentials near me because other people were buying as much as they could possibly get. I've stuck with a relatively conservative 2-3 week supply of noodles and rice, and the kind of toilet paper supply I'd normally buy anyway but where I'd previously be ok with waiting until I had a couple of rolls left before reordering. But that is mentally more effort than just panic-buying - I'm ok with 2-3 weeks because I've kept a close eye on supplies and know I can still top up, but if I'd just panic bought everything I could get my hands on I wouldn't have needed to put the effort into keeping track. And even millions of people trying to be similarly restrained but accounting for the reality that others aren't still has a massive negative effect. Overall I agree with you that it needs to bottom out soon, though. And I also very much agree about the psychological effect of keeping shelves look stocked.
- DingleDook101 7y ago
  Who the hell shits at work?
o-__-o 7y ago
The average person needs 7 gallons of water, 28 cans of meat, and 14 cans of fruit per 2 weeks. For a month long stockpile that comes out to 21 gallons of water, 84 cans of protein, and 42 cans of fruit. However everyone is probably stocking up on bananas and potatoes and fresh meats which will start to go bad after a week.
- thechao 7y ago
  Water comes from the tap? It’s not the end of the world, dude; it’s just a high-anxiety staycation.
- adamc 7y ago
  "Cans of meat"? I don't think I ever buy meat in cans...
  - gwright 7y ago
    Tuna and chicken are pretty common in cans. Spam is another example. In any case I bought a couple weeks worth over a month ago when I saw what was coming.
  - namibj 7y ago
    That measurement is pretty bad anyways. Maybe they'll provide better units we can actually discuss on.
- Dylan16807 7y ago
  Two cans of meat per day? Is this a diet that has no starch in it, or something? > However everyone is probably stocking up on bananas and potatoes and fresh meats which will start to go bad after a week. I doubt people are overbuying bananas too much, but more importantly meat can go in the freezer and something is wrong with your potatoes.

rockostrich 7y ago

Those people are eating the same amount of food one way or another, it's just being purchased by individuals now instead of local businesses.

duxup 7y ago

Outside of some specific items I'm seeing grocery stores well stocked and quickly restocking (my visibility is not perfect here). The real concern would be if the outbreak were to suddenly sideline huge amounts of truck drivers / pilots / etc. But many 'non essential' or 'seeing less demand' warehouses are shutting down / not busy, and that frees up a lot to focus on other things. Also truck drivers are now allowed to exceed their usual maximum driving hours ... and they are moving fast traffic wise. As far as truck drivers and etc I'm seeing warehouses isolate drivers where previously the driver was not isolated. They're providing them an isolated room and etc to limit contact between delivery point personnel or warehouses. Logistics in the US is strange, surprisingly low tech sometimes, but also very flexible industry. Outside still fairly flexible as well.

twomoretime 7y ago
>The real concern would be if the outbreak were to suddenly sideline huge amounts of truck drivers / pilots / etc I'm counting on some disruption. Even during isolation these people are basically walking infection vectors because of the nature of their jobs - loading/unloading (touching and breathing on) goods carried across the country. And I doubt we currently have the PPE for them...
- duxup 7y ago
  I feel like that seems somewhat likely but like most things I'm not at all sure how much we will see it.

derefr 7y ago

Grocery stores are satisfied almost entirely by domestic freight carriers (this could be said to be one of the definitions of a grocery store); in non-expedited domestic shipping, rail+truck are far-and-away the lowest-overhead carriers, with air not even entering the picture. Air (and sea) are for international and/or expedited freight, neither of which matter to shipping cabbages or cereal. If grocery stores sell faster, and so requested more resupply, you'd just see more 18-wheelers on the road and more freight-trains passing through. Neither "infrastructure" of which is operated anywhere near its capacity.

twomoretime 7y ago
I mean...there's a limit somewhere, isn't there? I'm not expecting grocery store supply chains to maintain 2x raw supplies reserved and manufacturing capacity...at the very least with the economy in the tank some of these factories that feed stores are going to shut down... And as for farmed foods you can't just flip a switch when everyone is panic buying. Unless you mean to say we throw away half of the harvest under normal conditions.
- klodolph 7y ago
  Having the economy in the tank doesn’t shut down factories directly, it does it indirectly, e.g. by drying up demand. Demand for groceries is up. Food demand is relatively inelastic. What changes is which food has demand. The supply chain for food is complicated, to say the least, but one of the things about food is that we’ve been working on extending shelf life for the past hundred years, and transport food globally, and it really shows. You can buy apples at the supermarket right now, even though they went out of season in October. If you had to think for a moment about when “in season” is for apples, well, the reason why you had to pause and think is because the modern supply chain gives you apples year round. The only way it can do that is by having a massive stockpile of shelf-stable apples which are sourced from both hemispheres. As a matter of details, people aren’t really eating more or less, we’re just getting different foods through different channels, and the long & complicated supply chain takes a while to switch over. I just want to emphasize again that the supply chain is a real beast. Because of the nature of the beast, it has to have excess capacity, because it is just so damn inefficient. > And as for farmed foods you can't just flip a switch when everyone is panic buying. There’s enough slack in the supply chain to absorb panic buying, if you wait it out. Anecdotally, panic buying is drying up in NYC and we’re getting closer to steady state.

davidw 7y ago

Italy still has well-stocked shelves from what I've heard. I am not too worried about it once the panic buying subsides.

jacksnipe 7y ago

Trucking capacity is definitely being stretched to its limit, but I don't know about Air.