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This information is crucial, we need to know who to isolate in the long term. If these shutdowns continue for too long, we'll be facing a bigger economic disas

This information is crucial, we need to know who to isolate in the long term. If these shutdowns continue for too long, we'll be facing a bigger economic disaster than the great depression. People will turn into animals. In contrast to that, if everybody above 70 somehow died immediately, it would be a major relief, economically speaking. If you put two and two together, if this goes on for too long, there will be no more "civil society". You may think #boomerremover is a cruel joke. I think it's quite serious.

tsimionescu 7y ago
The most important thing right now is to keep as many people as possible from getting the disease at once. Anything else is secondary. Also, letting the disease run rampant will not result in everybody above 70 somehow dying immediately, it will result in millions of people of all ages dying. The disease is NOT exclusive to old people, and a collapsing medical system will kill far more people than just the elderly. Compared to this, the risk to the economy, especially going by current measures (not Wuhan-style locked-in-your-home quarantine) is minimal.
- gridlockd 7y ago
  I'm not talking about "right now", I'm talking about long term. > Also, letting the disease run rampant will not result in everybody above 70 somehow dying immediately, it will result in millions of people of all ages dying. It's a simplification, obviously. People who have a severe infection and who are not treated will die pretty much immediately, however. In Italy, where the system already collapsed and no effective treatment is possible, the vast majority is over 70, younger cases else are outliers. Of course some younger people will also die. The "people of all ages will die" narrative is important to keep people's attention up - but it's not going to work in the long run. The younger you are, the less likely you are to die, that's a fact. The younger you are, the less risk averse you, that's another fact. > Compared to this, the risk to the economy, especially going by current measures (not Wuhan-style locked-in-your-home quarantine) is minimal. That entirely depends on how long these measures are in place.
joe_the_user 7y ago
This information is crucial, we need to know who to isolate in the long term. We need to discard the destructive idea that isolating some subpopulation is a viable strategy in this epidemic. There's no place to isolate people but their homes, essentially. You either isolate everyone or you're going effectively no one. In contrast to that, if everybody above 70 somehow died immediately, it would be a major relief, economically speaking. Yeah, these are the deluded and despicable ideas going around. No, the economic cost of dealing with the massive death of any group would be huge.
- gridlockd 7y ago
  > We need to discard the destructive idea that isolating some subpopulation is a viable strategy in this epidemic. Why? Tell me how long are you going to isolate everyone? Years? COVID-19 isn't disappearing after a month or two. It can flare up again. > There's no place to isolate people but their homes, essentially. You either isolate everyone or you're going effectively no one. This is a false dichotomy. You need to build herd immunity in the long run, otherwise you will have to isolate everyone indefinitely to prevent it from spreading again. Of course herd immunity can be achieved by a vaccine, but a "generally considered safe" vaccine will likely take at least a year to materialize and then it is unclear how many people actually want to get it. The idea that "it's just a flu" is still attractive in people's heads. People aren't good at estimating personal risk. > Yeah, these are the deluded and despicable ideas going around. No, the economic cost of dealing with the massive death of any group would be huge. Facts aren't "deluded or despicable". I'm just pointing it out. People over 70 generally are not economically productive, but they do cost a lot in terms of health care and social security, a lot of which is unfunded liabilities. Of course that's an uncomfortable fact, but that doesn't make it any less true. Today this might be something that people are not comfortable pointing out, of course the ruling elite are essentially senior citizens. At some point though, the pitchforks are going to come out. That's what I'm warning you about. I'll point out another fact: During the plague, Jews were big creditors. You can read up on what happened to them. If a crisis meets opportunity, morals go out the window. Count on it.
  - joe_the_user 7y ago

tsimionescu 7y ago

The most important thing right now is to keep as many people as possible from getting the disease at once. Anything else is secondary. Also, letting the disease run rampant will not result in everybody above 70 somehow dying immediately, it will result in millions of people of all ages dying. The disease is NOT exclusive to old people, and a collapsing medical system will kill far more people than just the elderly. Compared to this, the risk to the economy, especially going by current measures (not Wuhan-style locked-in-your-home quarantine) is minimal.

gridlockd 7y ago
I'm not talking about "right now", I'm talking about long term. > Also, letting the disease run rampant will not result in everybody above 70 somehow dying immediately, it will result in millions of people of all ages dying. It's a simplification, obviously. People who have a severe infection and who are not treated will die pretty much immediately, however. In Italy, where the system already collapsed and no effective treatment is possible, the vast majority is over 70, younger cases else are outliers. Of course some younger people will also die. The "people of all ages will die" narrative is important to keep people's attention up - but it's not going to work in the long run. The younger you are, the less likely you are to die, that's a fact. The younger you are, the less risk averse you, that's another fact. > Compared to this, the risk to the economy, especially going by current measures (not Wuhan-style locked-in-your-home quarantine) is minimal. That entirely depends on how long these measures are in place.

joe_the_user 7y ago

This information is crucial, we need to know who to isolate in the long term. We need to discard the destructive idea that isolating some subpopulation is a viable strategy in this epidemic. There's no place to isolate people but their homes, essentially. You either isolate everyone or you're going effectively no one. In contrast to that, if everybody above 70 somehow died immediately, it would be a major relief, economically speaking. Yeah, these are the deluded and despicable ideas going around. No, the economic cost of dealing with the massive death of any group would be huge.

gridlockd 7y ago
> We need to discard the destructive idea that isolating some subpopulation is a viable strategy in this epidemic. Why? Tell me how long are you going to isolate everyone? Years? COVID-19 isn't disappearing after a month or two. It can flare up again. > There's no place to isolate people but their homes, essentially. You either isolate everyone or you're going effectively no one. This is a false dichotomy. You need to build herd immunity in the long run, otherwise you will have to isolate everyone indefinitely to prevent it from spreading again. Of course herd immunity can be achieved by a vaccine, but a "generally considered safe" vaccine will likely take at least a year to materialize and then it is unclear how many people actually want to get it. The idea that "it's just a flu" is still attractive in people's heads. People aren't good at estimating personal risk. > Yeah, these are the deluded and despicable ideas going around. No, the economic cost of dealing with the massive death of any group would be huge. Facts aren't "deluded or despicable". I'm just pointing it out. People over 70 generally are not economically productive, but they do cost a lot in terms of health care and social security, a lot of which is unfunded liabilities. Of course that's an uncomfortable fact, but that doesn't make it any less true. Today this might be something that people are not comfortable pointing out, of course the ruling elite are essentially senior citizens. At some point though, the pitchforks are going to come out. That's what I'm warning you about. I'll point out another fact: During the plague, Jews were big creditors. You can read up on what happened to them. If a crisis meets opportunity, morals go out the window. Count on it.
- joe_the_user 7y ago