4 ms·
agree, we will know in a month, but even if govt is lying about cases, we should be seeing a deluge of patients in the ICUs and rise in deaths and we aren't see
by vasilipupkin 7y ago
agree, we will know in a month, but even if govt is lying about cases, we should be seeing a deluge of patients in the ICUs and rise in deaths and we aren't seeing that
- graeme 7y agoHow would you know they haven’t? If you don’t test a death for the virus, the death doesn’t show up in virus death counts. And if you aren’t in a hospitals, the deaths wouldn’t show yet. At some point it would become too big to ignore. But is Japan there yet? This is definitely a space to watch over the next 2-3 weeks.
- qes 7y agoYou look at death counts overall and for other reasons. The spikes will show up somewhere, if they exist.
- kevin_thibedeau 7y agoThe CDC lumps deaths by pneumonia into its influenza estimates. Presumably epidemiologists would do the same here and just miss the distinction from actual influenza deaths.
- Aeolun 7y agoGiven where they could have been if they’d followed the same trajectory as Italy, I’d say the strain should be visible if it was there.