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There is a lot of conflicting data. China went full hazmat with the influx of new healthcare workers they sent into Hubei, but Singapore and Honk Kong took sign
by zaroth 7y ago
There is a lot of conflicting data. China went full hazmat with the influx of new healthcare workers they sent into Hubei, but Singapore and Honk Kong took significantly more measured approaches which ultimately have also been successful in limiting exposure.
The US policy of 14 day quarantine for healthcare workers who had even limited exposure to a COVID patient was never sustainable and threatened to shut entire ERs before the restrictions were loosened.
A broad array of moderate measures (stringent hand washing, surgical masks all the time, 6 foot rule except during exams, etc.) combined with isolation of only identified “close” contacts has worked in a few different places now.
The question of asymptomatic spread is still confounding experts. It seems they can’t fully explain the spread in some places without it, but they can’t explain lack of spread in some places with it.
When left in a situation where data is conflicting and unreliable, I think the path forward has to always balance the conflicting interests. Just like you can’t send the entire ER department home in the middle of an epidemic, you also can’t exhaust your entire years supply of hazmat gear in a week, and you similarly can’t crater your entire economy to put on a show of strong action.
Measured responses ultimately are what will save the most lives, because they can be sustained for the reasonable expected duration of the outbreak rather than shock and cripple the whole system in a matter of weeks.
- marcosdumay 7y ago> It seems they can’t fully explain the spread in some places without it, but they can’t explain lack of spread in some places with it. They surely can. They just have to assume there are way more asymptomatic cases than they have been assuming, and a relatively small susceptible population.
- taeric 7y agoWrong in what way? Small susceptible to getting severe? Or getting it at all?
- marcosdumay 7y agoWell, you need both. If none would get it at all, it wouldn't spread, but if all got the virus it would show on exams. Every model around assumes that everybody contracts the virus. If you have part of a population that is immune to it, the population behavior changes.
- taeric 7y agoBut do you need both? What if severe cases to total cases is not a fixed rate, as assumed by most models I have seen?
- marcosdumay 7y agoYes, if most of those people do not transmit the virus (or transmit very little), that could lead to a similar scenario if there is insufficient testing. South Korea would need to be a very exceptional point. Anyway, whatever are the ratios, Japan and South Korea should be different because of mask usage too.
- taeric 7y agoMy point was you could have exponential growth with asymptomatic being the dominant number. All of the dire numbers assume that there is a fixed rate of low severity to high severity cases. What if asymptomatic is the norm? Could there be something about the places seeing high severe cases that makes them unique? And it is not just Japan anymore. Germany and Norway both have low severity numbers. Most of the US is finding that the more they test, the more active cases they find today. We could really use testing that let us know the cases they missed a month ago.
- marcosdumay 7y agoI think the idea that asymptomatic cases are the norm is well accepted and widespread already. It still begs the question of why the severity varies so much.
- bamboozled 7y agoYou do realise it’s not eradicated in HK or Singapore ? I’m not sure why people keep talking like this is all in the past for these countries ?
- kingaillas 7y ago> but Singapore and Honk Kong took significantly more measured approaches which ultimately have also been successful in limiting exposure. I think Singapore and Hong Kong (and South Korea) were able to aggressively test (e.g. temperature readings at airports), contact trace (e.g. grab location data off phones), force mobile apps for tracking and checking in, etc. All of that gave them the option of a measured approach. China had to go full in because they realized they had a uncontrolled pandemic brewing for a month before they took any significant action.