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Assume that everyone who has it spreads it to 2 people on average before dying or recovering. If one of the 2 people you would have spread it to is immune, you
by umanwizard 7y ago
Assume that everyone who has it spreads it to 2 people on average before dying or recovering. If one of the 2 people you would have spread it to is immune, you will only spread it to 1 person instead, and the total number of infected will not rise.
- baobabKoodaa 7y agoHuh? If you spread it to 1 person, then the total number of people who have been infected will rise by 1.
- umanwizard 7y agoI mean the total number of people sick at any given time, not the total number of people who have ever been infected.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- baobabKoodaa 7y agoThe parent poster asked "Why would we only expect half the world to get it?". It sounds like your answer to that is "no no, almost everybody will get it, they'll just get it at different times".
- umanwizard 7y agoIf the effective transmission rate is 1, yes, more people will get it, and then the effective rate will go below 1, and you enter exponential decay.