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Why would we only expect half the world to get it? My understanding is that everyone needs to be eventually exposed in one way or another, either contracting th
by henryfjordan 7y ago
Why would we only expect half the world to get it? My understanding is that everyone needs to be eventually exposed in one way or another, either contracting the virus or getting a vaccine (when they are ready).
- pwaivers 7y agoHerd Immunity (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity) means that everyone doesn't need to get it. The threshold for COVID-19 is estimated to be between 29-75%.
- zaphirplane 7y agoOn a different note in scientific paper what is considered too large an error margin to consider it a value to talk about. If the above is true that makes it what 52%+- 23
- umanwizard 7y agoAssume that everyone who has it spreads it to 2 people on average before dying or recovering. If one of the 2 people you would have spread it to is immune, you will only spread it to 1 person instead, and the total number of infected will not rise.
- baobabKoodaa 7y agoHuh? If you spread it to 1 person, then the total number of people who have been infected will rise by 1.
- umanwizard 7y agoI mean the total number of people sick at any given time, not the total number of people who have ever been infected.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- baobabKoodaa 7y agoThe parent poster asked "Why would we only expect half the world to get it?". It sounds like your answer to that is "no no, almost everybody will get it, they'll just get it at different times".
- umanwizard 7y agoIf the effective transmission rate is 1, yes, more people will get it, and then the effective rate will go below 1, and you enter exponential decay.