4 ms·

A month? Wouldn't it be more like 1-2 weeks?

fiftyfifty 7y ago
The problem we are going to have in the US is some states are responding better than others. NY looks bad right now because they are testing a lot. States like Florida, Louisiana and Georgia are already in double digit deaths each and don't have the positive cases to account for them. Going forward the rate of deaths will be far more indicative of what's happening than just the positive cases and that is going to continue to climb for at least 4 more weeks. Will we see a ban on interstate travel? What happens when one state gets the outbreak under control while another state's cases are still increasing? I'm extremely doubtful that any one state in the US will see a significant slowdown in cases in the next 4 weeks. No European country has yet...
- fiftyfifty 7y ago
  Italy and Spain each had a record number of deaths today at 627 and 212 respectively. The next two weeks are going to be terrible in the US.
  - dyingkneepad 7y ago
    We get shocked when an airplane with 150-300 people falls: we spend months talking about it. Now we see multiple instances of these numbers daily: two airplanes in Italy, one in Spain, a small one in the US, but it still doesn't feel as terrifying as a real airplane crash to me. I'm not saying I'm denying COVID or that the deaths are not horrible, just that for some unknown reason airplane crashes still seem so much more horrible: I'm talking about feelings, not facts. I don't know. OTOH, thinking about the economic implications of this crisis prevents me from sleeping.
    - fiftyfifty 7y ago
      The one that bothers me is 9-11, how many trillions of dollars did the US spend after that on the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and the war against terror? We are likely to see several 9-11s worth of deaths in the US due to Covid-19, will we spend even a fraction of what we spent after 9-11 to be more prepared for the next pandemic?
      - codyb 7y ago
        Considering it’s been less than a month and there are already half trillion dollar plans to help Americans out being proposed, it seems like the answer is probably yes.
- redisman 7y ago
  As you can see with WA, deaths is not a perfect metric either. Florida also has a lot of retirement homes and one getting hit will skew that metric a lot.
  - ImaCake 7y ago
    Yeah, I am very skeptical of extrapolation from deaths to get total cases. Just looking at China's numbers province by province reveals that the death rate varies quite a bit. Hubei has a very high mortality rate compared to the provinces surrounding it. Most provinces around Hubei had roughly 1 death per 1000 cases. But Henan, to the north had 22 deaths per thousand. There doesn't seem to be such a thing as a titular mortality rate for these viruses.
cameldrv 7y ago
The virus progresses from infection to death in more like 3 weeks, depending on medical care. Any change in infections wouldn't be seen for about that time.
- bprater 7y ago
  This is accurate. Also, most folks that do go to the Hospital with Covid-19 are staying much longer than people who have pneumonia. That means hospital beds that can't be recycled as quickly to get to the next wave of individuals.
  - disgruntledphd2 7y ago
    This was apparent from the Chinese data, and sadly discounted by most Western countries.
- zepearl 7y ago
  Right - but it isn't completely clear yet. From https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175438.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175438.h... : A new study calculates that the median incubation period for COVID-19 is just over 5 days and that 97.5% of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection. From https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19#Inkubationszeit https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19#Inkubationszeit : ...the incubation period can be up to 14 days. In addition, there are reports from Chinese researchers that extend the possible incubation period up to 24 days. An analysis of the first 425 cases reported in Wuhan shows an incubation period of 5.2 days on average and an average age of 59 years. ... A statistical analysis of several reports of infections in a household or in another narrow spatial limitation (so-called clusters) shows an incubation period of 5–6 days on average. Anyway, as long as people don't keep distance between each other, the situation won't improve. Here in Switzerland the limit was shurunk within ~2 weeks from groups of people of max 1000 to 500 to 100 to 10 to 5 (today's new guidelines) => so far nothing improved. The company I'm working for reacted early => many employees started staying at home (and working remotely) already 3 weeks ago, like myself => at the beginning it was ok for me, but now it's getting psychologically a bit "heavy". Luckily the government so far did not implement a total curfew, so from time to time we can still walk a bit in the parks/forests (but alone).
bdcravens 7y ago
We'll see an acceleration of cases, due to accelerated testing. Additionally, there's a 2-3 week period between infection and death for the worst cases, so barring spectacular new treatments, even a reduction in cases will take a few weeks to impact the death rate.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- im3w1l 7y ago
  There is also family to take into account. If you shut everything down today, you will see cases like this 1. X incubates for a week 2. X gets symptoms and infects spouse 3. X's spouse incubates for a week 4. X's spouse worsens for a few weeks 5. X's spouse dies
Florin_Andrei 7y ago
The numbers you see on dashboards have A LOT of lag from the moment of infection. There's incubation. There's "nah, this is just a regular cold". There's calling the doctor. There's looking for a test kit. There's processing the test. There's reporting. Then the numbers show up on the dash. Plus, there will be a lag between the moment the order is issued and the moment you see material changes in patterns of social interaction. It's definitely not 1 week, and even 2 seems a little sunny side up.
kube-system 7y ago
China took about 18 days to get from from the number of cases the US currently has, to the peak of infected cases. But they had a pretty different approach to controlling it than the US did.

The problem we are going to have in the US is some states are responding better than others. NY looks bad right now because they are testing a lot. States like Florida, Louisiana and Georgia are already in double digit deaths each and don't have the positive cases to account for them. Going forward the rate of deaths will be far more indicative of what's happening than just the positive cases and that is going to continue to climb for at least 4 more weeks. Will we see a ban on interstate travel? What happens when one state gets the outbreak under control while another state's cases are still increasing? I'm extremely doubtful that any one state in the US will see a significant slowdown in cases in the next 4 weeks. No European country has yet...

fiftyfifty 7y ago
Italy and Spain each had a record number of deaths today at 627 and 212 respectively. The next two weeks are going to be terrible in the US.
- dyingkneepad 7y ago
  We get shocked when an airplane with 150-300 people falls: we spend months talking about it. Now we see multiple instances of these numbers daily: two airplanes in Italy, one in Spain, a small one in the US, but it still doesn't feel as terrifying as a real airplane crash to me. I'm not saying I'm denying COVID or that the deaths are not horrible, just that for some unknown reason airplane crashes still seem so much more horrible: I'm talking about feelings, not facts. I don't know. OTOH, thinking about the economic implications of this crisis prevents me from sleeping.
  - fiftyfifty 7y ago
    The one that bothers me is 9-11, how many trillions of dollars did the US spend after that on the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and the war against terror? We are likely to see several 9-11s worth of deaths in the US due to Covid-19, will we spend even a fraction of what we spent after 9-11 to be more prepared for the next pandemic?
    - codyb 7y ago
      Considering it’s been less than a month and there are already half trillion dollar plans to help Americans out being proposed, it seems like the answer is probably yes.
redisman 7y ago
As you can see with WA, deaths is not a perfect metric either. Florida also has a lot of retirement homes and one getting hit will skew that metric a lot.
- ImaCake 7y ago
  Yeah, I am very skeptical of extrapolation from deaths to get total cases. Just looking at China's numbers province by province reveals that the death rate varies quite a bit. Hubei has a very high mortality rate compared to the provinces surrounding it. Most provinces around Hubei had roughly 1 death per 1000 cases. But Henan, to the north had 22 deaths per thousand. There doesn't seem to be such a thing as a titular mortality rate for these viruses.

cameldrv 7y ago

The virus progresses from infection to death in more like 3 weeks, depending on medical care. Any change in infections wouldn't be seen for about that time.

bprater 7y ago
This is accurate. Also, most folks that do go to the Hospital with Covid-19 are staying much longer than people who have pneumonia. That means hospital beds that can't be recycled as quickly to get to the next wave of individuals.
- disgruntledphd2 7y ago
  This was apparent from the Chinese data, and sadly discounted by most Western countries.
zepearl 7y ago
Right - but it isn't completely clear yet. From https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175438.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175438.h... : A new study calculates that the median incubation period for COVID-19 is just over 5 days and that 97.5% of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection. From https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19#Inkubationszeit https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19#Inkubationszeit : ...the incubation period can be up to 14 days. In addition, there are reports from Chinese researchers that extend the possible incubation period up to 24 days. An analysis of the first 425 cases reported in Wuhan shows an incubation period of 5.2 days on average and an average age of 59 years. ... A statistical analysis of several reports of infections in a household or in another narrow spatial limitation (so-called clusters) shows an incubation period of 5–6 days on average. Anyway, as long as people don't keep distance between each other, the situation won't improve. Here in Switzerland the limit was shurunk within ~2 weeks from groups of people of max 1000 to 500 to 100 to 10 to 5 (today's new guidelines) => so far nothing improved. The company I'm working for reacted early => many employees started staying at home (and working remotely) already 3 weeks ago, like myself => at the beginning it was ok for me, but now it's getting psychologically a bit "heavy". Luckily the government so far did not implement a total curfew, so from time to time we can still walk a bit in the parks/forests (but alone).

bdcravens 7y ago

We'll see an acceleration of cases, due to accelerated testing. Additionally, there's a 2-3 week period between infection and death for the worst cases, so barring spectacular new treatments, even a reduction in cases will take a few weeks to impact the death rate.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
im3w1l 7y ago
There is also family to take into account. If you shut everything down today, you will see cases like this 1. X incubates for a week 2. X gets symptoms and infects spouse 3. X's spouse incubates for a week 4. X's spouse worsens for a few weeks 5. X's spouse dies

Florin_Andrei 7y ago

The numbers you see on dashboards have A LOT of lag from the moment of infection. There's incubation. There's "nah, this is just a regular cold". There's calling the doctor. There's looking for a test kit. There's processing the test. There's reporting. Then the numbers show up on the dash. Plus, there will be a lag between the moment the order is issued and the moment you see material changes in patterns of social interaction. It's definitely not 1 week, and even 2 seems a little sunny side up.

kube-system 7y ago

China took about 18 days to get from from the number of cases the US currently has, to the peak of infected cases. But they had a pretty different approach to controlling it than the US did.