3 ms·

I keep seeing people asking "Why can't we just quickly spin up technology X?" where this is here ventilators, otherwise vaccines, etc... without much awareness

I keep seeing people asking "Why can't we just quickly spin up technology X?" where this is here ventilators, otherwise vaccines, etc... without much awareness of how much specialization goes into almost every aspect of every job. Hell, even fast-food workers-- a skilled grill operator at McDonalds -- take time to train up. No, we cannot quickly undo the 20 years of systematic dismantling of our core infrastructure. We are in for a very rude wake-up call. And then, once we are awake, and are dealing with our new realization on the complexity of our economy, where every part depends on every other part functioning, and trying to get this restarted with a significant number of the parts NOT working... Then we realize that the economy is embedded in an even bigger system called "life on earth" which we have degraded and destroyed on a much larger scale than our economy. If you think the weakness in our society which the virus uncovers are a big deal, you simply lack the full picture.

mistermann 7y ago
> I keep seeing people asking "Why can't we just quickly spin up technology X?" where this is here ventilators, otherwise vaccines, etc...without much awareness of how much specialization goes into almost every aspect of every job. Hell, even fast-food workers-- a skilled grill operator at McDonalds -- take time to train up. > No, we cannot quickly undo the 20 years of systematic dismantling of our core infrastructure. We are in for a very rude wake-up call. Wait a minute. I was with you up until the end of "...take time to train up.", but I've lost the plot between there and "No, we cannot quickly undo the 20 years of systematic dismantling of our core infrastructure." To me, these seem like two extremely different issues, but it appears that you see them as being ~equivalent, or am I misunderstanding? > And then, once we are awake, and are dealing with our new realization on the complexity of our economy, where every part depends on every other part functioning... Agree, but I just wanted to add my $.02: Be careful when using "awake" - this is a very, very tricky word. To say it can be be deceptive is a major understatement. > Then we realize that the economy is embedded in an even bigger system called "life on earth" which we have degraded and destroyed on a much larger scale than our economy. I see your point, but again: for specific definitions of "degraded" and "destroyed", maybe. And even if so, does this have bearing on this particular issue? If not, it should not be part of the analysis. It confuses people, and this situation is confusing enough. > If you think the weakness in our society which the virus uncovers are a big deal, you simply lack the full picture. I assume you meant "...are not a big deal..."?
- mellavora 7y ago
  Hey, thanks for the clarifications, and apologies to the community that I started ranting. The equivalence between "takes time to train up" and "20 years of systematic dismantling" is that we have lost many of the experts we might otherwise depend on in a national emergency. For example, Trump dismantled the Pandemic Response Team. You can't easily replace that overnight. Longstanding cuts to CDC budgets, etc. You are also correct that I was making a rather unexpected analogy between our current crisis and the environmental crisis. Yes, this would catch a reader off guard and cause the confusion you suggest. Here it is again: The economy is a complex system. Each part basically assumes that the rest of the parts are there. Imagine Amazon without a postal deliver service, for example. Or your grocery store without a trucking industry. Much of the global economy is now shut down. We will have to re-start it, which we will do, but it will be painful because of complex interdependencies between parts. Here is the analogy: Life on earth is also a complex system. We have done our best to extract and destroy as much of it as possible. For example, insect populations are down by 80% in Western countries. We take for granted that the natural environment is there, providing what it has always provided, without realizing how badly we have disrupted it. Just as the US has taken good health for granted and dismantled things like the CDC, taken good roads for granted and not repaired them, taken good education for granted and demonized public school teachers (hello, Wisconsin!)....
  - mistermann 7y ago
    > The equivalence between "takes time to train up" and "20 years of systematic dismantling" is that we have lost many of the experts we might otherwise depend on in a national emergency. For example, Trump dismantled the Pandemic Response Team. You can't easily replace that overnight. Longstanding cuts to CDC budgets, etc. Do you have trustworthy (confirmable), conclusive data that suggests the ideas (assumptions) in this statement are actually objectively true, and materially relevant to the actual problems we are experiencing? I've read a billion claims of this, but literally every single time I interface with the person that wrote it, the response is angry and evasive. Literally 100% of the time. Note that I'm not strongly implying any conclusions here, I am simply pointing out what I think is an extremely interesting and important phenomenon that is currently occurring on our planet, and I think there is a causative relationship between the two. I follow your new analogy, it makes perfect sense to me, but how you connect this back to your conclusions is where you continue to lose me.
pbhjpbhj 7y ago
I see creation of a vaccine very differently to production of one of a range of existing ventilators. There are many companies using things like 6D CNC machines with high accuracy that can essentially spit out a part for which there's a definition (and we can 3D scan parts to micrometer accuracy with laser scanners); many electronics companies can make "any" circuit to some extent (I'm guessing ventilators use generic components, some circuits might be generic - like valve controllers, whatever, certainly display controllers I'd expect to be generic). Parts like keys, cases, outside the gas flow/control path are probably injection moulds that factories could pop out a million of within a week (once the dies are duplicated). A skilled grill worker takes a while to train, but any grill worker given McDo's recipe could make you a functioning BigMac in an hour. I'm not asking for a new product to be designed (one effort - opensourceventilator.ie - are doing exactly that, making a modified BVM system). Still looks like production could produce output in weeks rather than months.
- salawat 7y ago
  The problem isn't production. It's mass automated production. Once you take the human out of the picture to get a machine to do the work you've now involved a programmer, CNC operator, roboticist. and an industrial engineer at a minimum just to get the rough task doable. We could probably have a fully human operated production line up and going relatively quickly, but getting the machines all cut over and integrated so as to do it themselves is hard. Look, thought experiment. You ever watch that show, "How It's Made"? They literally make entertainment out of watching the end result of the final outcome of integrating all of these stages of the fabrication process. But if you have ever watched it, did it not strike you as interesting that they never seem to do an episode with regards to the production of the very industrial equipment automating the fabrication process? They can't/won't because it is bloody hard, error prone, and freaking expensive. Once you've got it, you're gold, but it is by no means a short route getting there.

mistermann 7y ago

> I keep seeing people asking "Why can't we just quickly spin up technology X?" where this is here ventilators, otherwise vaccines, etc...without much awareness of how much specialization goes into almost every aspect of every job. Hell, even fast-food workers-- a skilled grill operator at McDonalds -- take time to train up. > No, we cannot quickly undo the 20 years of systematic dismantling of our core infrastructure. We are in for a very rude wake-up call. Wait a minute. I was with you up until the end of "...take time to train up.", but I've lost the plot between there and "No, we cannot quickly undo the 20 years of systematic dismantling of our core infrastructure." To me, these seem like two extremely different issues, but it appears that you see them as being ~equivalent, or am I misunderstanding? > And then, once we are awake, and are dealing with our new realization on the complexity of our economy, where every part depends on every other part functioning... Agree, but I just wanted to add my $.02: Be careful when using "awake" - this is a very, very tricky word. To say it can be be deceptive is a major understatement. > Then we realize that the economy is embedded in an even bigger system called "life on earth" which we have degraded and destroyed on a much larger scale than our economy. I see your point, but again: for specific definitions of "degraded" and "destroyed", maybe. And even if so, does this have bearing on this particular issue? If not, it should not be part of the analysis. It confuses people, and this situation is confusing enough. > If you think the weakness in our society which the virus uncovers are a big deal, you simply lack the full picture. I assume you meant "...are not a big deal..."?

mellavora 7y ago
Hey, thanks for the clarifications, and apologies to the community that I started ranting. The equivalence between "takes time to train up" and "20 years of systematic dismantling" is that we have lost many of the experts we might otherwise depend on in a national emergency. For example, Trump dismantled the Pandemic Response Team. You can't easily replace that overnight. Longstanding cuts to CDC budgets, etc. You are also correct that I was making a rather unexpected analogy between our current crisis and the environmental crisis. Yes, this would catch a reader off guard and cause the confusion you suggest. Here it is again: The economy is a complex system. Each part basically assumes that the rest of the parts are there. Imagine Amazon without a postal deliver service, for example. Or your grocery store without a trucking industry. Much of the global economy is now shut down. We will have to re-start it, which we will do, but it will be painful because of complex interdependencies between parts. Here is the analogy: Life on earth is also a complex system. We have done our best to extract and destroy as much of it as possible. For example, insect populations are down by 80% in Western countries. We take for granted that the natural environment is there, providing what it has always provided, without realizing how badly we have disrupted it. Just as the US has taken good health for granted and dismantled things like the CDC, taken good roads for granted and not repaired them, taken good education for granted and demonized public school teachers (hello, Wisconsin!)....
- mistermann 7y ago
  > The equivalence between "takes time to train up" and "20 years of systematic dismantling" is that we have lost many of the experts we might otherwise depend on in a national emergency. For example, Trump dismantled the Pandemic Response Team. You can't easily replace that overnight. Longstanding cuts to CDC budgets, etc. Do you have trustworthy (confirmable), conclusive data that suggests the ideas (assumptions) in this statement are actually objectively true, and materially relevant to the actual problems we are experiencing? I've read a billion claims of this, but literally every single time I interface with the person that wrote it, the response is angry and evasive. Literally 100% of the time. Note that I'm not strongly implying any conclusions here, I am simply pointing out what I think is an extremely interesting and important phenomenon that is currently occurring on our planet, and I think there is a causative relationship between the two. I follow your new analogy, it makes perfect sense to me, but how you connect this back to your conclusions is where you continue to lose me.

pbhjpbhj 7y ago

I see creation of a vaccine very differently to production of one of a range of existing ventilators. There are many companies using things like 6D CNC machines with high accuracy that can essentially spit out a part for which there's a definition (and we can 3D scan parts to micrometer accuracy with laser scanners); many electronics companies can make "any" circuit to some extent (I'm guessing ventilators use generic components, some circuits might be generic - like valve controllers, whatever, certainly display controllers I'd expect to be generic). Parts like keys, cases, outside the gas flow/control path are probably injection moulds that factories could pop out a million of within a week (once the dies are duplicated). A skilled grill worker takes a while to train, but any grill worker given McDo's recipe could make you a functioning BigMac in an hour. I'm not asking for a new product to be designed (one effort - opensourceventilator.ie - are doing exactly that, making a modified BVM system). Still looks like production could produce output in weeks rather than months.

salawat 7y ago
The problem isn't production. It's mass automated production. Once you take the human out of the picture to get a machine to do the work you've now involved a programmer, CNC operator, roboticist. and an industrial engineer at a minimum just to get the rough task doable. We could probably have a fully human operated production line up and going relatively quickly, but getting the machines all cut over and integrated so as to do it themselves is hard. Look, thought experiment. You ever watch that show, "How It's Made"? They literally make entertainment out of watching the end result of the final outcome of integrating all of these stages of the fabrication process. But if you have ever watched it, did it not strike you as interesting that they never seem to do an episode with regards to the production of the very industrial equipment automating the fabrication process? They can't/won't because it is bloody hard, error prone, and freaking expensive. Once you've got it, you're gold, but it is by no means a short route getting there.