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1. I think nearly everyone besides WHO has the consensus that China’s released numbers is too low, especially when you compare it to the numbers from Italy and

1. I think nearly everyone besides WHO has the consensus that China’s released numbers is too low, especially when you compare it to the numbers from Italy and South Korea. Whether that’s due to corruption or the swamped hospitals and a lack of test kits in the beginning is debatable. 2. This white paper may explain Newsom’s numbers. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... The growth is exponential and not linear which throws off most people. Surprisingly, even though the paper’s R0 is on the conservative side (2.2-2.4) and so is their case fatality rate. However, their simulations still predict 2.2 million deaths in the US if there’s no gov intervention for social distancing

knzhou 7y ago
China's case fatality rate is half Italy's -- if anything, that tells us the Italian numbers are too low.
- michaelchisari 7y ago
  In China, 9% of people are 65 or older. In Italy, 22% are. Since this is a disease with the highest mortality for the older age groups, Italy was always going to have a higher mortality rate.
  - gpderetta 7y ago
    Apparently in Italy even flu is deadlier than the rest of Europe [1]. [1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197121...
    - orwin 7y ago
      northern italy is extremely humid, this is a factor for the flue too.
btilly 7y ago
That paper is very good. And got the UK to reverse their disastrous "herd immunity" strategy. Sadly https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/top-uk-covid-19-expert-neil-ferguson-self-isolates-after-developing-symptoms https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/top-uk-covid-1... says that the lead author of the study has COVID and likely was infectious while he attended a press conference on COVID.
surewhynat 7y ago
These are nonsense conspiracy theories. South Korea's Numbers are also too low? No. Our response in the west is just terrible because of all the political nonsense, the fact that scientists don't influence our countries, and most people are just too stupid or too spoiled to listen. Look at our countries, have you seen the kids partying in Miami? The people still protesting in France? How about everyone still going out for dinner? Don't go blaming other countries' good performance for our crappy one. Edit: on that note, other countries have been testing people on entry for months on entry. Russia has been testing people on entry. The Philippines tests everyone on the public transportation.
- chaostheory 7y ago
  It’s not a conspiracy theory and I specifically said SK’s numbers are more trustworthy. Historically, mainly due to authoritarianism, Chinese provincial governors have a strong tendency to lie with better numbers to avoid being sacked by Beijing. This has happened numerous times already... and before your allusions to racism get more pronounced, I am Chinese. Their numbers also don’t conform to infection simulations pre-lockdown There are also many Chinese accounts of thousands of bodies just being cremated without being tested. to be fair, Italy is now supposedly experiencing the same thing now due to hospitals being overwhelmed.

knzhou 7y ago

China's case fatality rate is half Italy's -- if anything, that tells us the Italian numbers are too low.

michaelchisari 7y ago
In China, 9% of people are 65 or older. In Italy, 22% are. Since this is a disease with the highest mortality for the older age groups, Italy was always going to have a higher mortality rate.
- gpderetta 7y ago
  Apparently in Italy even flu is deadlier than the rest of Europe [1]. [1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197121...
  - orwin 7y ago
    northern italy is extremely humid, this is a factor for the flue too.

btilly 7y ago

That paper is very good. And got the UK to reverse their disastrous "herd immunity" strategy. Sadly https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/top-uk-covid-19-expert-neil-ferguson-self-isolates-after-developing-symptoms https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/top-uk-covid-1... says that the lead author of the study has COVID and likely was infectious while he attended a press conference on COVID.

surewhynat 7y ago

These are nonsense conspiracy theories. South Korea's Numbers are also too low? No. Our response in the west is just terrible because of all the political nonsense, the fact that scientists don't influence our countries, and most people are just too stupid or too spoiled to listen. Look at our countries, have you seen the kids partying in Miami? The people still protesting in France? How about everyone still going out for dinner? Don't go blaming other countries' good performance for our crappy one. Edit: on that note, other countries have been testing people on entry for months on entry. Russia has been testing people on entry. The Philippines tests everyone on the public transportation.

chaostheory 7y ago
It’s not a conspiracy theory and I specifically said SK’s numbers are more trustworthy. Historically, mainly due to authoritarianism, Chinese provincial governors have a strong tendency to lie with better numbers to avoid being sacked by Beijing. This has happened numerous times already... and before your allusions to racism get more pronounced, I am Chinese. Their numbers also don’t conform to infection simulations pre-lockdown There are also many Chinese accounts of thousands of bodies just being cremated without being tested. to be fair, Italy is now supposedly experiencing the same thing now due to hospitals being overwhelmed.