3 ms·
California estimates 25.5M residents will get virus in next 8 weeks
- throw03172019 7y agoThat is quite the estimate. I’d love to see the data behind that number.
- joe_the_user 7y agoBack of the envelope: California had 18 death last I checked. A good estimate for real infections is 800current-deaths = 14400 infected [1]. If doubling time is 4 days, that's 14 doubling periods. so 14400 (2^14) = 23,5929,600. I'd guess this is worst case, not likely-case but still terrifying.
- mullingitover 7y agoThere's a great epidemic calculator here -> http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html Curious what the true parameters are for this outbreak, R0 must be pretty high.
- boznz 7y agoSo basically in 10 weeks the economy will be fucked and everybody will have it regardless of what measures they take. Anyone else seeing the problem?
- Fjolsvith 7y agoMost will be asymptomatic or mildly affected. The seriously ill will be treated with the newly approved Chloroquine drug and recover fully in 6 days. What's the problem again?