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Gavin Newsom: 56% of California will be infected with coronavirus in 8 weeks
- olivermarks 7y agosubscription panes free link https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/california-coronavirus-numbers-newsom-trump-15144169.php https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/california-coronaviru...
- chickenpotpie 7y agoAssuming this is true and mortality rate of 2%, that means 510,000 Californians will die.
- Alex3917 7y agoOnce ICUs are full, mortality will be much higher than 2%.
- timr 7y agoWhy would you post something like this? We know that the fatality rates are incredibly uncertain, at best, ranging from below a percent in some countries, to over five percent in others. So you're engaging in pure speculation. Why do it, other than to create panic?
- chickenpotpie 7y agoWhy try to predict anything? In a pandemic you need to prepare for the worst case scenario as soon as possible. If we do nothing many people will die and Americans need to know that is a possibility.
- timr 7y agoNobody is preparing anything based on the predictions of HN comments.
- forkexec 7y agoTo calibrate a rational response by governments, organizations and individuals. Without widely-disseminated good data, people could either be acting like it's Spring Break on Florida's beaches or hiding in their underground Cloverfield bunker. A rational response lies somewhere in the middle, depending on what the actual conditions are. Hiding data, reality and/or lying to people leaves us all less prepared to take proactive steps to protect ourselves without over-spending or being caught under-prepared. If some people panic because they can't handle reality, that's their own fault.
- natalyarostova 7y agoYes, this is hot-nonsense. They will shut the state down entirely the day 20,000 people die on the streets surrounding a hospital.
- chickenpotpie 7y agoIt will be too late by then. After 20,000 people have died on the streets more than 56% of California will be infected with COVID-19.
- scotty79 7y agoAverage mortality according to recent analysis is 0.125% https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/ https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/ Which is in consistent with the data from a cruise ship where all people could be tested. Which means 30k deaths not 500k. Still a lot I think. Also pretty close to flu, which makes me distrustful of this mortality rate, seeing how different it looks in Italy now compared to seasonal flu.
- reustle 7y agoItaly is older, yes, but still hovering around an 8.2% death rate, far above China's 4%
- thu2111 7y agoItaly has been seeing overflowing hospitals in recent previous years as well during peak influenza season. So that doesn't by itself imply something truly unusual. I wish I could find the source for this (it was a medical paper) but I've read a lot of web pages lately and not bookmarked them all systematically. Yesterday I pointed out that dramatic news of war-like conditions in hospitals, running out of beds, erecting tents to hold extra patients and warnings of imminent collapse have happened in the recent past in ... California: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22632440 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22632440 If you look you can instantly find news stories that sound exactly like those coming out of Italy at the moment, but from recent years in flu season, for almost any country. It's fair to say that hospitals running out of beds or putting people in corridors, tents, hastily converted rooms isn't unusual. Perhaps we should ask why there isn't enough peak capacity in western health systems to handle just a bad flu season, let alone something like this.
- natalyarostova 7y agoThis is completely unacceptable. If this happens tens of thousands will be dying on the streets and in hospital parking lots. Meanwhile other areas are able to suppress the virus, collectively buying ourselves time to develop therapeutics and vaccines. Major Asian countries are succeeding.
- geuis 7y agoCan someone submit an article on this topic from a news source that doesn’t completely cover up the story with ads, popovers when you have ad blocking turned on, etc? This website plus Mercury news do the same bullshit.
- wglb 7y agoPerhaps here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22632739 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22632739
- mirimir 7y agoIsn't it predictable that incidence of infection will be proportional to population density? If so, isn 't the Northeast megalopolis most at risk?
- black6 7y agoWe (the public) are being misled about either the virulency, the morbidity rate, or both, with regards to SARS-CoV-2. The real numbers simply do not match the models.
- vearwhershuh 7y agoAd free-ish at the Sac Bee: https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241349341.html https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241349341.htm... If 56% of CA is infected in 2 months then we aren't being told something about this virus.
- xenocyon 7y agoNewsom's CA estimate is roughly the same percentage as the nationwide estimates by the CDC: "Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic" (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-est...)
- vearwhershuh 7y agoI don't know where you live, but where I live they have issued a shelter in place order and my understanding is that this is widespread. If 56% of the state gets the virus under a shelter in place order, either we all already have it or the virus is so virulent that even limited runs for essentials is extremely risky.
- WalterSear 7y agoNewsom's statement qualified that the calculations did not take shelter-in-place into account.
- threatofrain 7y agoSo are several hundred thousand people going to die in a short period if time? Doesn't that mean martial law?
- WalterSear 7y agoIt's already being discussed.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- singularity2001 7y agoWOULD be infected if people kept partying. With containment measures and medicine in the pipeline this scenario can be prevented as other countries show.