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Also noted, SK's infected populations are overwhelmingly skew towards young population during their 20s from the cult cluster. This won't be the case for other

Also noted, SK's infected populations are overwhelmingly skew towards young population during their 20s from the cult cluster. This won't be the case for other countries. 1% is way too optimistic at this point.

nostromo 7y ago
The Princess Cruise has nearly perfect data as everyone in a controlled population was tested. (This is not true for South Korea, which has tested less than half a percent of their population.) The fatality rate was 0.8%. The majority of their passengers were over 60 years old, so even this number is too high compared to the global population.
- joe_the_user 7y ago
  Yes, the Princess Cruise tells 0.8% might be the best case fatality rate with a functioning medical system. Even that would be catastrophic for if the virus infects a large percentage of the population, as it is rapidly moving to do. Thus we cannot be even in the least bit sanguine on this and need to move with speed against it. This is in no way comparable to 2009 or other recent events (contrary to your ggp).
  - nostromo 7y ago
    As I mentioned, the cruise ship was full of old people, so no, it's not the best case scenario. It's likely the worst case scenario.
    - joe_the_user 7y ago
      No, the worst case scenario is not medical system to help the people who become seriously ill, which 20%, according to WHO and multiple other authorities and statistics.
joe_the_user 7y ago
It doesn't matter if 1% is "optimistic" or not. 20% infection + 1% best-case fatality rate is enough to knock the health care system and begin knocking out the whole of society. Basically, there's enough information currently to tell people who pay attention and consider rationally that we need to spend every possible effort confining infections and quarantining, basically the entire earth. There is no alternative.
QuantumGood 7y ago
Lots of smokers though

nostromo 7y ago

The Princess Cruise has nearly perfect data as everyone in a controlled population was tested. (This is not true for South Korea, which has tested less than half a percent of their population.) The fatality rate was 0.8%. The majority of their passengers were over 60 years old, so even this number is too high compared to the global population.

joe_the_user 7y ago
Yes, the Princess Cruise tells 0.8% might be the best case fatality rate with a functioning medical system. Even that would be catastrophic for if the virus infects a large percentage of the population, as it is rapidly moving to do. Thus we cannot be even in the least bit sanguine on this and need to move with speed against it. This is in no way comparable to 2009 or other recent events (contrary to your ggp).
- nostromo 7y ago
  As I mentioned, the cruise ship was full of old people, so no, it's not the best case scenario. It's likely the worst case scenario.
  - joe_the_user 7y ago
    No, the worst case scenario is not medical system to help the people who become seriously ill, which 20%, according to WHO and multiple other authorities and statistics.

joe_the_user 7y ago

It doesn't matter if 1% is "optimistic" or not. 20% infection + 1% best-case fatality rate is enough to knock the health care system and begin knocking out the whole of society. Basically, there's enough information currently to tell people who pay attention and consider rationally that we need to spend every possible effort confining infections and quarantining, basically the entire earth. There is no alternative.

QuantumGood 7y ago

Lots of smokers though