4 ms·

I am not sure if you can infer from two past epidemics that this one will be the same. Every epidemic is different. This one spreads way faster than H1N1 and is

I am not sure if you can infer from two past epidemics that this one will be the same. Every epidemic is different. This one spreads way faster than H1N1 and is harder to control because of asymptomatic carriers. Sure, information (and misinformation) travels much faster now, but I am not sure if that is necessarily a bad thing. It might have done more help than harm in this case for all we know. I think that is the case because this one is not as deadly, so sensationalization and fear-mongering is not easy. If the fatality rate was like 50% (as it was for Avian flu, I found recently to my surprise), it could have been way worse with the media.

moises_silva 7y ago
Do you have a source for asymptomatic carriers? From https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/transmission.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/transmissi... >>> Can someone spread the virus without being sick? People are thought to be most contagious when they are most symptomatic (the sickest). Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms; there have been reports of this occurring with this new coronavirus, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads. Doesn't seem to indicate asymptomatic carriers are a big concern?
- wool_gather 7y ago
  There are people getting sick without having been in contact with other people who are sick. How else would that happen? "Most contagious when symptomatic" is not even remotely the same thing as "not contagious unless symptomatic". We also don't have a good picture of what symptoms look like aside from the most serious cases.
  - moises_silva 7y ago
    How would you possibly know reliably they were not in contact with anyone sick?, particularly when being in contact means touching any surfaces where the virus landed hours or it seems even days ago
- icedchai 7y ago
  There is a lot of uncertainty, doubt, and imprecision in those statements. "Some spread might...", "might be possible...", "this is not thought...", etc. These really mean: yes, it's possible. I would say asymptomatic carriers are the biggest concern.
  - moises_silva 7y ago
    There's a big difference between 'yes, is technically possible' to having proof (and therefore certainty) that this is a big factor and a differentiator from other from other viruses.
    - icedchai 7y ago
      I think the proof is out there: https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/covid-19/asymptomatic-carriers-covid-19-make-it-tough-target https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/covid-19/asymptomatic-...
      - moises_silva 7y ago
        Thank you for the links. I found it before as well with some quick googling but I felt the title deceptive after reading the actual studies linked [0] [1]. >>> The sequence of events suggests that the coronavirus may have been transmitted by the asymptomatic carrier. >>> If the findings in this report of presumed transmission by an asymptomatic carrier are replicated, the prevention of COVID-19 infection would prove challenging. The mechanism by which asymptomatic carriers could acquire and transmit the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 requires further study. >>> Considering the reported similarity in viral loads between asymptomatic and symptomatic patients [14] and that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic cases may be possible, even though there is no clear evidence as yet of asymptomatic transmission, the relatively high proportion of asymptomatic infections could have public health implications No clear evidence of asymptomatic transmission. A lot of 'probably', 'suggests' as before. It's certainly a growing possibility, but not I'd not call it proven yet as a big factor. [0] https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180 https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.E... [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2762028 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/27620...
joe_the_user 7y ago
Honestly, I think GP's post is an example of the danger of amateur punditry. On the other, I think Tomas Pueyo's medium blog is really important and correct imo as another amateur pundit. The thing about it is, even with people saying useful, what you really need is the CDC and other authorities being with it enough that they command the most credibility and with them failing to achieve that, even good punditry can only do so much.

moises_silva 7y ago

Do you have a source for asymptomatic carriers? From https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/transmission.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/transmissi... >>> Can someone spread the virus without being sick? People are thought to be most contagious when they are most symptomatic (the sickest). Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms; there have been reports of this occurring with this new coronavirus, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads. Doesn't seem to indicate asymptomatic carriers are a big concern?

wool_gather 7y ago
There are people getting sick without having been in contact with other people who are sick. How else would that happen? "Most contagious when symptomatic" is not even remotely the same thing as "not contagious unless symptomatic". We also don't have a good picture of what symptoms look like aside from the most serious cases.
- moises_silva 7y ago
  How would you possibly know reliably they were not in contact with anyone sick?, particularly when being in contact means touching any surfaces where the virus landed hours or it seems even days ago
icedchai 7y ago
There is a lot of uncertainty, doubt, and imprecision in those statements. "Some spread might...", "might be possible...", "this is not thought...", etc. These really mean: yes, it's possible. I would say asymptomatic carriers are the biggest concern.
- moises_silva 7y ago
  There's a big difference between 'yes, is technically possible' to having proof (and therefore certainty) that this is a big factor and a differentiator from other from other viruses.
  - icedchai 7y ago
    I think the proof is out there: https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/covid-19/asymptomatic-carriers-covid-19-make-it-tough-target https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/covid-19/asymptomatic-...
    - moises_silva 7y ago
      Thank you for the links. I found it before as well with some quick googling but I felt the title deceptive after reading the actual studies linked [0] [1]. >>> The sequence of events suggests that the coronavirus may have been transmitted by the asymptomatic carrier. >>> If the findings in this report of presumed transmission by an asymptomatic carrier are replicated, the prevention of COVID-19 infection would prove challenging. The mechanism by which asymptomatic carriers could acquire and transmit the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 requires further study. >>> Considering the reported similarity in viral loads between asymptomatic and symptomatic patients [14] and that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic cases may be possible, even though there is no clear evidence as yet of asymptomatic transmission, the relatively high proportion of asymptomatic infections could have public health implications No clear evidence of asymptomatic transmission. A lot of 'probably', 'suggests' as before. It's certainly a growing possibility, but not I'd not call it proven yet as a big factor. [0] https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180 https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.E... [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2762028 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/27620...

joe_the_user 7y ago

Honestly, I think GP's post is an example of the danger of amateur punditry. On the other, I think Tomas Pueyo's medium blog is really important and correct imo as another amateur pundit. The thing about it is, even with people saying useful, what you really need is the CDC and other authorities being with it enough that they command the most credibility and with them failing to achieve that, even good punditry can only do so much.