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A stimulus plan can't work. We're intentionally stopping the economy from producing goods and services. Stimulus is intended to get the economy to _start_ mak

A stimulus plan can't work. We're intentionally stopping the economy from producing goods and services. Stimulus is intended to get the economy to _start_ making goods and services. If you throw more money at less goods and services, all you will get is inflation.

adventured 7y ago
We're actually running a ventilator plan, rather than a stimulus plan. We're going to spend $2 trillion, most likely, trying to keep businesses and people alive over a few months, until the realization hits like a truck that this can't go on for very long (60-90 days max), at which point mental capitulation will happen. The next step then is everybody is going back to work, regardless of the virus, regardles of the risk. We'll quarantine the old and most vulnerable, while we pursue a vaccine and ramp up medical supplies and try to handle the ICU load. Mass shutdown and quarantine will be viewed as a horrible mistake of available choices, but only in convenient hindsight. It will turn out we unnecessarily destroyed trillions and trillions of dollars in wealth and capital, because our understanding of the situation was very poor (how wide spread the virus actually is).
- mschuster91 7y ago
  > because our understanding of the situation was very poor (how wide spread the virus actually is). It's estimated that there is at least a scale of 10x unknown infected vs known infected. South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have only been able to stay nearly CV-free because they have extremely strict testing regimens - while the US has almost no testing capacity at all (and many have to ignore a positive test as they need to work to survive/keep health insurance), and Europe doesn't fare that much better to be honest.
  - adventured 7y ago
    No nation has done mass randomized testing to see how much of their population has had the virus. If China did it, they haven't released the results of that test. South Korea will not be able to remain quasi Covid free, unless they plan to never open their borders up ever again. The rest of the world is going to be flooded with the virus and the disease. The bulk of the populations in the EU and the US will likely get the virus, and as you note, fortunately, the death rate hopefully maybe plausibly is 1/10th or 1/20th what we think it is due to the volume of unknown cases roaming about. The only way SK remains mostly free of Covid, is if the virus goes away and doesn't come back next year (and or we get a vaccine they can use next year). SK can hold in place, while the US and EU and other regions (China already) likely go back to work; then as it fades elsewhere with increasing herd immunity, SK can come out of their protective shell. Otherwise they'll have to remain in perma lockdown, perma quarantine, perma heightened mode.
    - neilparikh 7y ago
      Couldn’t SK open their borders again, but then test everyone entering the country?
- smileysteve 7y ago
  > this can't go on for very long (60-90 days max) If we can do it for even just 30 days, it drastically reduces the surge load on the medical system.

adventured 7y ago

We're actually running a ventilator plan, rather than a stimulus plan. We're going to spend $2 trillion, most likely, trying to keep businesses and people alive over a few months, until the realization hits like a truck that this can't go on for very long (60-90 days max), at which point mental capitulation will happen. The next step then is everybody is going back to work, regardless of the virus, regardles of the risk. We'll quarantine the old and most vulnerable, while we pursue a vaccine and ramp up medical supplies and try to handle the ICU load. Mass shutdown and quarantine will be viewed as a horrible mistake of available choices, but only in convenient hindsight. It will turn out we unnecessarily destroyed trillions and trillions of dollars in wealth and capital, because our understanding of the situation was very poor (how wide spread the virus actually is).

mschuster91 7y ago
> because our understanding of the situation was very poor (how wide spread the virus actually is). It's estimated that there is at least a scale of 10x unknown infected vs known infected. South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have only been able to stay nearly CV-free because they have extremely strict testing regimens - while the US has almost no testing capacity at all (and many have to ignore a positive test as they need to work to survive/keep health insurance), and Europe doesn't fare that much better to be honest.
- adventured 7y ago
  No nation has done mass randomized testing to see how much of their population has had the virus. If China did it, they haven't released the results of that test. South Korea will not be able to remain quasi Covid free, unless they plan to never open their borders up ever again. The rest of the world is going to be flooded with the virus and the disease. The bulk of the populations in the EU and the US will likely get the virus, and as you note, fortunately, the death rate hopefully maybe plausibly is 1/10th or 1/20th what we think it is due to the volume of unknown cases roaming about. The only way SK remains mostly free of Covid, is if the virus goes away and doesn't come back next year (and or we get a vaccine they can use next year). SK can hold in place, while the US and EU and other regions (China already) likely go back to work; then as it fades elsewhere with increasing herd immunity, SK can come out of their protective shell. Otherwise they'll have to remain in perma lockdown, perma quarantine, perma heightened mode.
  - neilparikh 7y ago
    Couldn’t SK open their borders again, but then test everyone entering the country?
smileysteve 7y ago
> this can't go on for very long (60-90 days max) If we can do it for even just 30 days, it drastically reduces the surge load on the medical system.