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A 1% CFR will be catastrophic if we let it ride. Over 7 billion people worldwide. Assuming a simple 1% infection rate (extremely unlikely consider the R0 of SAR
by greedo 7y ago
A 1% CFR will be catastrophic if we let it ride. Over 7 billion people worldwide. Assuming a simple 1% infection rate (extremely unlikely consider the R0 of SARS-CoV-2), that would result in over 700K dying worldwide. And that ignores the hospitalization required for non-fatal cases. Currently it looks like 18% of all infections require multi-week hospitalization. So again, with 1% infection rate, that means over 12 million hospitalizations. And that's just a 1%/1%/18% assumption.
- Gys 7y agoA completely collapsed economy could trigger a society breakdown and will have deadly consequences as well, like violence (fighting over food, possesions) and bad healthcare
- greedo 7y agoTrue. But imagine a more realistic scenario based on the CFR we've seen worldwide. Start with 7B people. Assume 50% get infected because we don't want to do a lockdown. 3.5B infections means 630M multi-week hospitalizations and 70M fatalities worldwide. And the follow-on effects will kill even more since these hospitalization rates will consume all our medical resources, so other illnesses will have higher CFRs as well. I don't know about you, but avoiding 70m fatalities and over 600M hospitalizations is the optimal choice. Pursuing this choice would be the greatest human calamity, surpassing the destruction of WW2 in terms of lives.
- tunesmith 7y agoIs there a way to derive infection rate from the R0 value? Because we don't even get close to 50% infection with the flu, and covid's R0 isn't like measles or anything.
- SpicyLemonZest 7y agoThere's no way to derive infection rate at all, unfortunately. Even for pandemics in the past, where we can go back and look at all the epidemological data, estimates of infection rates tend to vary by at least 10 percentage points.
- greedo 7y agoWe don't really have an accurate infection rate from the flu since we don't test for it. Most of the flu data is collected via surveys...
- DanBC 7y agoDon't forget we have massive campaigns to immunise against flu.
- seunosewa 7y ago1% of 7 billion is 70 million, so its 100 times worse than you thought.
- greedo 7y agoThat was the percentage of infections I was spitballing. 1% of that (a really low CFR) would be 700K fatalities.