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>We need a way to include "black swan readiness" Black Swans cannot be prepared for, that's what makes them Black Swans. One of the principles is: The non-co

>We need a way to include "black swan readiness" Black Swans cannot be prepared for, that's what makes them Black Swans. One of the principles is: The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities). How do you establish an emergency fund for something with a non-computible probability? How much money should you put aside for it?

Invictus0 7y ago
6 months of operating expenses would be a good start. Apparently they only put aside a few weeks worth.
- missedthecue 7y ago
  That would be over $20 billion for a company like Delta. That's a decade of free cashflow just saved. No reinvestment in the business, no return to shareholders, none of that. Just saving every dollar for a decade. I think a lot of people just don't understand the math here.
  - akiselev 7y ago
    There are dozens of financial instruments they could have used to hedge their position without having to save decades of cashflow. That's what those instruments are ostensibly for. At the scale of companies like airlines that have a history of bailouts, the OTC markets offer plenty of options (no pun intended) with premiums a tiny fraction of $20 billion.
    - missedthecue 7y ago
      They can hedge fuel and they can hedge labor costs through contract, but no industry could realistically survive an 80-90% reduction in revenue.
      - Dylan16807 7y ago
        Lots of businesses could survive an 80-90% reduction in revenue for an extended period if they shut down 80-99% of their operations. It's not like travel demand won't come back.
        missedthecue 7y ago
        But they still have to pay to park those planes, continue to pay lease payments, continue to pay maintenance on those planes, continue to pay for landing and gate spots at all the airports they serve globablly... essentially the only costs that go away are labor that they've put on unpaid furlough, and fuel costs, which if they've hedged, they're essentially paying for anyway. Airlines aren't an SaaS business where you just scale down AWS and youre good.
  - kevin_thibedeau 7y ago
    They can collect interest on their rainy day endowments. Nonprofits do it all the time.
    - missedthecue 7y ago
      10 years yield is not much right now. They won't be beating inflation. And if they were in stocks they'd be eating a 25-50% haircut when they needed the money
- rv-de 7y ago
  they need to pay the bonuses from something!

Invictus0 7y ago

6 months of operating expenses would be a good start. Apparently they only put aside a few weeks worth.

missedthecue 7y ago
That would be over $20 billion for a company like Delta. That's a decade of free cashflow just saved. No reinvestment in the business, no return to shareholders, none of that. Just saving every dollar for a decade. I think a lot of people just don't understand the math here.
- akiselev 7y ago
  There are dozens of financial instruments they could have used to hedge their position without having to save decades of cashflow. That's what those instruments are ostensibly for. At the scale of companies like airlines that have a history of bailouts, the OTC markets offer plenty of options (no pun intended) with premiums a tiny fraction of $20 billion.
  - missedthecue 7y ago
    They can hedge fuel and they can hedge labor costs through contract, but no industry could realistically survive an 80-90% reduction in revenue.
    - Dylan16807 7y ago
      Lots of businesses could survive an 80-90% reduction in revenue for an extended period if they shut down 80-99% of their operations. It's not like travel demand won't come back.
      - missedthecue 7y ago
        But they still have to pay to park those planes, continue to pay lease payments, continue to pay maintenance on those planes, continue to pay for landing and gate spots at all the airports they serve globablly... essentially the only costs that go away are labor that they've put on unpaid furlough, and fuel costs, which if they've hedged, they're essentially paying for anyway. Airlines aren't an SaaS business where you just scale down AWS and youre good.
- kevin_thibedeau 7y ago
  They can collect interest on their rainy day endowments. Nonprofits do it all the time.
  - missedthecue 7y ago
    10 years yield is not much right now. They won't be beating inflation. And if they were in stocks they'd be eating a 25-50% haircut when they needed the money
rv-de 7y ago
they need to pay the bonuses from something!