8 ms·

>We have the workforce. That's the problem - you don't. By definition, the kind of efficient, highly-automated manufacturing you're thinking of doesn't need ma

>We have the workforce. That's the problem - you don't. By definition, the kind of efficient, highly-automated manufacturing you're thinking of doesn't need many unskilled or semi-skilled workers, but it does need skilled and experienced engineers and machinists. It needs a massive and complex ecosystem of suppliers and support. The depletion of America's industrial base has created a massive skills gap that would take decades to remedy. You can't create a new Silicon Valley with a bunch of bootcamp graduates and some wishful thinking; likewise, you can't create a manufacturing economy through sheer force of will.

hguant 7y ago
This reminds me of a conversation I had at a New Year's party not too long ago - a gentleman I'd never met before and I got to talking, and in the process of getting to know one another (however much you can know someone after 4-5 drinks at a black tie party you go to once a year), he bemoaned the issues he was having trying to open a US branch of his company. Apparently medium scale sheet metal forming operations in the States have all but disappeared - everything is either outsourced to China, or is small scale, high precision work that can't meet demand of more than N hundred pieces a week. It's a boring issue - "oh no, there's no one to subcontract this work to, you have to buy from China for X percent of what it would cost to do here" - but speak volumes as to the loss of a critical component of that manufacturing ecosystem.
- Cthulhu_ 7y ago
  It's because people have been pushed to both sides of that; manufacturing used to be a comfortable middle class job, but it's shifted to the sides, being a high value, specialist job on the one hand, and a low education required job of handling incoming finished or half-finished products coming over from abroad.
- brigandish 7y ago
  I got chatting to the bloke next to me on a long haul flight from the UK to Japan. He was going there to buy a printing machine (he was a printer) and when I asked why go all the way to Japan he told me that, basically, only Germany and Japan make printing machines any more. He even pointed out that the pulp he bought was from abroad. I wonder if freight companies receive subsidies though - lots of airlines certainly get subsidies - that might change things in favour of more local producers. Maybe.
  - pastage 7y ago
    Transport is one of the least taxed emission sources there are, in o e way thats subsidies.
- owenversteeg 7y ago
  >Apparently medium scale sheet metal forming operations in the States have all but disappeared - everything is either outsourced to China, or is small scale, high precision work that can't meet demand of more than N hundred pieces a week. I can personally confirm this. Very unfortunate, and I'm positive it's helping stifle innovation. Having to go to China for your custom sheet metal needs (with the communication difficulties and shipping times involved) can be -really- debilitating.
  - rwmurrayVT 7y ago
    You can get custom sheet metal work, if you're willing the pay the price and possibly are in the right industry. Sheet metal, welding, carpentry, pipefitters, and pretty much every trade are in massive demand in shipbuilding/repair. NNSY fails a significant portion of welder applicants just because they can't lay a proper weld. They pay... a lot of money.
    - ethbro 7y ago
      You definitely see it in defense-related locales. Driving around Newport News, Groton, or even Birmingham is like being on another planet economically speaking. But I definitely see the point, as most of the suppliers are sized for defense, not commercial industrial volume. And from their perspective, I get the choice. Why risk expansion, when the trend has been towards free trade and offshoring? A 100x customer who decides to switch suppliers in a year isn't a win. At least DoD is a semi-reliable customer.
      - rwmurrayVT 7y ago
        Driving around Newport News is like driving around a desolate shithole. There are very few nice neighborhoods in the area. Newport News and Hampton are the worst cities in the Hampton Roads area.
        ethbro 7y ago
        That's what a shrinking population and economy does to an area.
Paperweight 7y ago
Highly-automated, "clean" manufacturing is all well and good for billion-dollar highly-capitalized, politically-sheltered megafactories, but what about the other 90% of manufacturers? Manufacturing is a dirty, dangerous, manual business. I think the small guys will tell you that environmental regulations killed manufacturing in the west, not labour costs. We've been living in lala land with it all offshore, out of sight. If US/EU-level environmental regulations got applied and enforced globally, we'd be sent back to the stone age. Not to mention the litigation risks, intellectual property risks, trade union cartels, needing to hire an electrician to change a lightbulb, etc. (All added up, it's hopelessly calcified, but whatever...) Don't get me wrong - I really care about the environment - but most regs here are just to look good, not actually about stuff that matters. And pushing it into the third world, where they don't protect the environment at all, is counterproductive.
- piva00 7y ago
  Tell that to Germany, stricter environmental regulations and a very healthy, highly developed manufacturing sector. They might not have all of their supply chain made locally but Germany makes the machines that makes machines so if needed they could ramp up their internal manufacturing quite quickly, doesn't seem to be the case for the US.
  - Seanambers 7y ago
    Well Germany has been so fortunate as to be a member of a currency union, where they are the leading industrial base, thus giving them a artificial low currency as an advantage as well. This helps manufacturing quit a bit.
    - imtringued 7y ago
      That's completely insignificant compared to having the dollar as the global currency in the oil trade. Countries that sell oil for dollar can only spend those dollars on American products. It's as if the USA produced all the oil in the world and sold it for profit. Meanwhile Germany's unfair advantage is that it's prices on products are slightly lower than they should be.
gauravjain13 7y ago
This, exactly. America has manufacturing talent, but not at the scale required for a manufacturing economy. (Source: ~2 decades in global manufacturing.)
- kilroy123 7y ago
  So what can we do as a nation to change that? Should we even try at this point?
  - thu2111 7y ago
    Tariffs. The US has already started!
    - jpindar 7y ago
      They've put tariffs on raw materials and sub-assemblies, which is making it less economical to manufacture things in the US.
      - thu2111 7y ago
        Interesting. I wonder what the logic is; usually tariffs are chosen based on trade volumes with the targeted country. Maybe there's a sense that mining or other raw materials businesses need more help than firms higher up the value chain.
leereeves 7y ago
> The depletion of America's industrial base has created a massive skills gap that would take decades to remedy All the more reason to get started immediately.
JabavuAdams 7y ago
While this might be true, in the same decades you could have a handful of skilled machinists teach the robots / AIs. The thing about AI anything is that each individual unit gets better with fleet upgrades.

hguant 7y ago

This reminds me of a conversation I had at a New Year's party not too long ago - a gentleman I'd never met before and I got to talking, and in the process of getting to know one another (however much you can know someone after 4-5 drinks at a black tie party you go to once a year), he bemoaned the issues he was having trying to open a US branch of his company. Apparently medium scale sheet metal forming operations in the States have all but disappeared - everything is either outsourced to China, or is small scale, high precision work that can't meet demand of more than N hundred pieces a week. It's a boring issue - "oh no, there's no one to subcontract this work to, you have to buy from China for X percent of what it would cost to do here" - but speak volumes as to the loss of a critical component of that manufacturing ecosystem.

Cthulhu_ 7y ago
It's because people have been pushed to both sides of that; manufacturing used to be a comfortable middle class job, but it's shifted to the sides, being a high value, specialist job on the one hand, and a low education required job of handling incoming finished or half-finished products coming over from abroad.
brigandish 7y ago
I got chatting to the bloke next to me on a long haul flight from the UK to Japan. He was going there to buy a printing machine (he was a printer) and when I asked why go all the way to Japan he told me that, basically, only Germany and Japan make printing machines any more. He even pointed out that the pulp he bought was from abroad. I wonder if freight companies receive subsidies though - lots of airlines certainly get subsidies - that might change things in favour of more local producers. Maybe.
- pastage 7y ago
  Transport is one of the least taxed emission sources there are, in o e way thats subsidies.
owenversteeg 7y ago
>Apparently medium scale sheet metal forming operations in the States have all but disappeared - everything is either outsourced to China, or is small scale, high precision work that can't meet demand of more than N hundred pieces a week. I can personally confirm this. Very unfortunate, and I'm positive it's helping stifle innovation. Having to go to China for your custom sheet metal needs (with the communication difficulties and shipping times involved) can be -really- debilitating.
- rwmurrayVT 7y ago
  You can get custom sheet metal work, if you're willing the pay the price and possibly are in the right industry. Sheet metal, welding, carpentry, pipefitters, and pretty much every trade are in massive demand in shipbuilding/repair. NNSY fails a significant portion of welder applicants just because they can't lay a proper weld. They pay... a lot of money.
  - ethbro 7y ago
    You definitely see it in defense-related locales. Driving around Newport News, Groton, or even Birmingham is like being on another planet economically speaking. But I definitely see the point, as most of the suppliers are sized for defense, not commercial industrial volume. And from their perspective, I get the choice. Why risk expansion, when the trend has been towards free trade and offshoring? A 100x customer who decides to switch suppliers in a year isn't a win. At least DoD is a semi-reliable customer.
    - rwmurrayVT 7y ago
      Driving around Newport News is like driving around a desolate shithole. There are very few nice neighborhoods in the area. Newport News and Hampton are the worst cities in the Hampton Roads area.
      - ethbro 7y ago
        That's what a shrinking population and economy does to an area.

Paperweight 7y ago

Highly-automated, "clean" manufacturing is all well and good for billion-dollar highly-capitalized, politically-sheltered megafactories, but what about the other 90% of manufacturers? Manufacturing is a dirty, dangerous, manual business. I think the small guys will tell you that environmental regulations killed manufacturing in the west, not labour costs. We've been living in lala land with it all offshore, out of sight. If US/EU-level environmental regulations got applied and enforced globally, we'd be sent back to the stone age. Not to mention the litigation risks, intellectual property risks, trade union cartels, needing to hire an electrician to change a lightbulb, etc. (All added up, it's hopelessly calcified, but whatever...) Don't get me wrong - I really care about the environment - but most regs here are just to look good, not actually about stuff that matters. And pushing it into the third world, where they don't protect the environment at all, is counterproductive.

piva00 7y ago
Tell that to Germany, stricter environmental regulations and a very healthy, highly developed manufacturing sector. They might not have all of their supply chain made locally but Germany makes the machines that makes machines so if needed they could ramp up their internal manufacturing quite quickly, doesn't seem to be the case for the US.
- Seanambers 7y ago
  Well Germany has been so fortunate as to be a member of a currency union, where they are the leading industrial base, thus giving them a artificial low currency as an advantage as well. This helps manufacturing quit a bit.
  - imtringued 7y ago
    That's completely insignificant compared to having the dollar as the global currency in the oil trade. Countries that sell oil for dollar can only spend those dollars on American products. It's as if the USA produced all the oil in the world and sold it for profit. Meanwhile Germany's unfair advantage is that it's prices on products are slightly lower than they should be.

gauravjain13 7y ago

This, exactly. America has manufacturing talent, but not at the scale required for a manufacturing economy. (Source: ~2 decades in global manufacturing.)

kilroy123 7y ago
So what can we do as a nation to change that? Should we even try at this point?
- thu2111 7y ago
  Tariffs. The US has already started!
  - jpindar 7y ago
    They've put tariffs on raw materials and sub-assemblies, which is making it less economical to manufacture things in the US.
    - thu2111 7y ago
      Interesting. I wonder what the logic is; usually tariffs are chosen based on trade volumes with the targeted country. Maybe there's a sense that mining or other raw materials businesses need more help than firms higher up the value chain.

leereeves 7y ago

> The depletion of America's industrial base has created a massive skills gap that would take decades to remedy All the more reason to get started immediately.

JabavuAdams 7y ago

While this might be true, in the same decades you could have a handful of skilled machinists teach the robots / AIs. The thing about AI anything is that each individual unit gets better with fleet upgrades.