6 ms·

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e... >CDC estimates* that,

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e... >CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 7, 2020, there have been: 22,000-55,000 That's 4,400 deaths per month in the United States on the low estimate. 11,000 on the high. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200317-sitrep-57-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=a26922f2_2 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati... Total worldwide deaths according to the CDC so far for covid-19 is equal to 7426 since the beginning in let's say December to give it the worst rates. That equals 1865 deaths per month. https://www.globalresearch.ca/flu-bigger-concern-wuhan-virus-grabs-headlines/5701932 https://www.globalresearch.ca/flu-bigger-concern-wuhan-virus... >5 Million Cases Worldwide, 650,000 Deaths Annually (influenza) That's 54,000 deaths per month for the whole world. Covid-19 is currently at 3.5% of the worldwide deaths of influenza with 1/4th of the year over. Hopefully this is not considered misinformation that will cause massive numbers of deaths.

Mountain_Skies 7y ago
Until covid-19 has petered out, the comparisons aren't valid. We're not even sure yet where on the upslope of infections we are. It's way too early to compare it the annual rate of anything else.
- ghastmaster 7y ago
  It's literally just information. I'm comparing current data, which is clearly indicated and sourced.
  - tomrod 7y ago
    It would be like comparing Compact Disc sales from 2016 and 1996. Sure, both are compact discs, but the comparison isn't relevant anymore in the broad context of music consumption. The point is that while the comparison is superficially similar it isn't really supporting any major points beyond "these things are different."
  - 10-1-100 7y ago
    I think the problem is that the information (and specifically your third source) is misleading. Note in your first source that the CDC estimates _36 to 51 million_ flu illnesses this season _in the US_. I'm not sure why your third source says "5 million cases". The flu doesn't originate from a single point geographically every year, as it is already embedded in communities globally. So, even if the current numbers we have for coronavirus infections are off by an order of magnitude, it is easy to reason that once this coronavirus reaches spread at the levels of the flu (i.e., 30-50 million infections _in the US alone_), the death numbers are likely to be much much higher than the seasonal flu.
    - ghastmaster 7y ago
      According to previous CDC link, worldwide known cases and known death numbers give a known mortality rate of 0.041586323. Obviously there are far more cases that are unknown at this point. This would lower the mortality rate. https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200303/Analysis-One-sure-thing-about-COVID-19-No-telling-how-many-people-have-it.aspx https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200303/Analysis-One-sure... >Lipkin noted that because cases observed early in an epidemic are the most severe, early mortality estimates tend to be high. As more information comes out, the death rates are likely to fall. "We're probably six months out from having a good picture, and when we do I'd guess the mortality will drop dramatically," he said.
  - kragen 7y ago
    There is no possible way that you could believe that your interpretation of this data is correct; you're clearly just trolling, but in a way that is likely to get people killed. You're doing the equivalent of SWATting somebody — also "just trolling" until the guns start going off.
Cogito 7y ago
The flu is community spread, and not possible to contain. There are many strains, and immunity to the previous season's flu does not provide immunity to this one. The new virus can be contained, at least could have been though perhaps it's too late for that. The only thing keeping the deaths so low to this point has been the containment efforts. The flu does not overrun an entire country's hospital system like COVID-19 has done to Italy. It is misinformation to blindly compare total deaths between two diseases like you are.
- Barrin92 7y ago
  >The flu does not overrun an entire country's hospital system like COVID-19 has done to Italy. to be fair it certainly can and does. The 2017/2018 influenza pandemic was probably the worst one in a decade, with 35 million infections, 700 000 hospitalizations and 60k deaths, and people for a while were treated in tents and a state of emergency was declared in Alabama, and Southern California and Texas had to turn away patients. https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/ https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie...
  - peterisza 7y ago
    And that's a 0.2% mortality rate, still nowhere near as bad as even the lowest estimates for COVID-19.
    - Barrin92 7y ago
      That's a different discussion than the question if regular flu seasons can overload the healthcare systems. Yes they can, and we regularly underestimate them. And I'd actually also disagree that this is 'nowhere near as bad' as COVID-19. In countries like Germany or South Korea the death toll with high rates of testing appears to be somewhere in the 0.2 - 1% range. That's something I would argue is a difference in quantity rather than quality, with the dangers lying in the aggregate disease burden and vulnerable populations in particular.
      - 7y ago
terraqueous 7y ago
The CDC also estimates that if measures are not taken against the spread of COVID-19, direct deaths in the United States could range from 200,000 to 1.7 million. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-est... Few deaths in past months does not mean few deaths in the coming months, because infections spread exponentially.
tomrod 7y ago
We have a flu shot that was partially effective this year. Some years are better than others. We have no defense against COVID-19, so until herd immunity becomes a thing by social distancing please flatten the curve to keep our health system from being overwhelmed. Influenza death rate on known cases is about 0.1% or less. Best estimates for Covid-19 are from SK and, to my knowledge, are around 0.6%. But the ICU fills up quick and then death rate spikes.
heavyset_go 7y ago
For someone with access to citable stats, you sure seem to have left out the cumulative number of people who get influenza, and the amount of people who are slated to catch the more infectious coronavirus. Without those statistics, you're comparing apples to oranges when you point to the total number of deaths per year for both diseases.
afiori 7y ago
Even without entering in comparison of the numbers a decisive factor is that we have no proof that there are no long term negative effects, or even that (partial) immunity carries over to the following year as with the flu, or that it will mutate in more unpredictable ways.

Mountain_Skies 7y ago

Until covid-19 has petered out, the comparisons aren't valid. We're not even sure yet where on the upslope of infections we are. It's way too early to compare it the annual rate of anything else.

ghastmaster 7y ago
It's literally just information. I'm comparing current data, which is clearly indicated and sourced.
- tomrod 7y ago
  It would be like comparing Compact Disc sales from 2016 and 1996. Sure, both are compact discs, but the comparison isn't relevant anymore in the broad context of music consumption. The point is that while the comparison is superficially similar it isn't really supporting any major points beyond "these things are different."
- 10-1-100 7y ago
  I think the problem is that the information (and specifically your third source) is misleading. Note in your first source that the CDC estimates _36 to 51 million_ flu illnesses this season _in the US_. I'm not sure why your third source says "5 million cases". The flu doesn't originate from a single point geographically every year, as it is already embedded in communities globally. So, even if the current numbers we have for coronavirus infections are off by an order of magnitude, it is easy to reason that once this coronavirus reaches spread at the levels of the flu (i.e., 30-50 million infections _in the US alone_), the death numbers are likely to be much much higher than the seasonal flu.
  - ghastmaster 7y ago
    According to previous CDC link, worldwide known cases and known death numbers give a known mortality rate of 0.041586323. Obviously there are far more cases that are unknown at this point. This would lower the mortality rate. https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200303/Analysis-One-sure-thing-about-COVID-19-No-telling-how-many-people-have-it.aspx https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200303/Analysis-One-sure... >Lipkin noted that because cases observed early in an epidemic are the most severe, early mortality estimates tend to be high. As more information comes out, the death rates are likely to fall. "We're probably six months out from having a good picture, and when we do I'd guess the mortality will drop dramatically," he said.
- kragen 7y ago
  There is no possible way that you could believe that your interpretation of this data is correct; you're clearly just trolling, but in a way that is likely to get people killed. You're doing the equivalent of SWATting somebody — also "just trolling" until the guns start going off.

Cogito 7y ago

The flu is community spread, and not possible to contain. There are many strains, and immunity to the previous season's flu does not provide immunity to this one. The new virus can be contained, at least could have been though perhaps it's too late for that. The only thing keeping the deaths so low to this point has been the containment efforts. The flu does not overrun an entire country's hospital system like COVID-19 has done to Italy. It is misinformation to blindly compare total deaths between two diseases like you are.

Barrin92 7y ago
>The flu does not overrun an entire country's hospital system like COVID-19 has done to Italy. to be fair it certainly can and does. The 2017/2018 influenza pandemic was probably the worst one in a decade, with 35 million infections, 700 000 hospitalizations and 60k deaths, and people for a while were treated in tents and a state of emergency was declared in Alabama, and Southern California and Texas had to turn away patients. https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/ https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie...
- peterisza 7y ago
  And that's a 0.2% mortality rate, still nowhere near as bad as even the lowest estimates for COVID-19.
  - Barrin92 7y ago
    That's a different discussion than the question if regular flu seasons can overload the healthcare systems. Yes they can, and we regularly underestimate them. And I'd actually also disagree that this is 'nowhere near as bad' as COVID-19. In countries like Germany or South Korea the death toll with high rates of testing appears to be somewhere in the 0.2 - 1% range. That's something I would argue is a difference in quantity rather than quality, with the dangers lying in the aggregate disease burden and vulnerable populations in particular.
    - 7y ago

terraqueous 7y ago

The CDC also estimates that if measures are not taken against the spread of COVID-19, direct deaths in the United States could range from 200,000 to 1.7 million. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-est... Few deaths in past months does not mean few deaths in the coming months, because infections spread exponentially.

tomrod 7y ago

We have a flu shot that was partially effective this year. Some years are better than others. We have no defense against COVID-19, so until herd immunity becomes a thing by social distancing please flatten the curve to keep our health system from being overwhelmed. Influenza death rate on known cases is about 0.1% or less. Best estimates for Covid-19 are from SK and, to my knowledge, are around 0.6%. But the ICU fills up quick and then death rate spikes.

heavyset_go 7y ago

For someone with access to citable stats, you sure seem to have left out the cumulative number of people who get influenza, and the amount of people who are slated to catch the more infectious coronavirus. Without those statistics, you're comparing apples to oranges when you point to the total number of deaths per year for both diseases.

afiori 7y ago

Even without entering in comparison of the numbers a decisive factor is that we have no proof that there are no long term negative effects, or even that (partial) immunity carries over to the following year as with the flu, or that it will mutate in more unpredictable ways.