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Citation needed on it preferring colder climates. My own quick glimpse of the global numbers showed plenty of equatorial cases per capita. Many aren’t rigorousl

by ianai 7y ago

Citation needed on it preferring colder climates. My own quick glimpse of the global numbers showed plenty of equatorial cases per capita. Many aren’t rigorously tested populations, too.

codebolt 7y ago
It's something I first read from the Goldman Sachs client call notes that has been circulating: https://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2020/03/16/the-private-goldman-sachs-coronavirus-meeting-thats-setting-the-internet-on-fire/#18155bc950dd https://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2020/03/16/the-priva... Certainly not the best citation, and I have no idea where GS gets their analyses, but seems plausible enough that I'm at least hoping there could be some truth to it. See e.g. India, the virus doesn't seem to have taken off there despite a few early cases. If it's wrong, I fear things could get really bad, especially in heavily populated cities like Lagos.
matwood 7y ago
I think this presentation is a great source of facts. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DqfSnlaW6N3GBc5YKyBOCGPfdqOsqk1G/view https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DqfSnlaW6N3GBc5YKyBOCGPfdqO... Weather: Maybe 10 oF increases the doubling time 2x (steady-state reduction in exterior virus levels by 50% per Pubmed 22312351, plus reducing time × concentration of people indoors). I don't think a paper about SARS-CoV-2 and temperature has been written yet (that I've seen), but people are hoping it reacts like SARS-CoV. See here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22312351 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22312351 Keep in mind, that doesn't mean zero cases in hot weather, just that it is less contagious.
- ianai 7y ago
  “ It may also explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (such as Malaysia, Indonesia or Thailand) with high temperature and high relative humidity environment did not have major community outbreaks of SARS.” Iirc, Maylasia has a pretty strong breakout on its hands. They recorded their first death today and are at something like 670 cases. I think their double rate was 2-3 days. Edit-it’s 1 day today. See link. Not good news I think for the hypothesis. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

by ianai 7y ago

Citation needed on it preferring colder climates. My own quick glimpse of the global numbers showed plenty of equatorial cases per capita. Many aren’t rigorously tested populations, too.

codebolt 7y ago

It's something I first read from the Goldman Sachs client call notes that has been circulating: https://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2020/03/16/the-private-goldman-sachs-coronavirus-meeting-thats-setting-the-internet-on-fire/#18155bc950dd https://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2020/03/16/the-priva... Certainly not the best citation, and I have no idea where GS gets their analyses, but seems plausible enough that I'm at least hoping there could be some truth to it. See e.g. India, the virus doesn't seem to have taken off there despite a few early cases. If it's wrong, I fear things could get really bad, especially in heavily populated cities like Lagos.

matwood 7y ago

I think this presentation is a great source of facts. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DqfSnlaW6N3GBc5YKyBOCGPfdqOsqk1G/view https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DqfSnlaW6N3GBc5YKyBOCGPfdqO... Weather: Maybe 10 oF increases the doubling time 2x (steady-state reduction in exterior virus levels by 50% per Pubmed 22312351, plus reducing time × concentration of people indoors). I don't think a paper about SARS-CoV-2 and temperature has been written yet (that I've seen), but people are hoping it reacts like SARS-CoV. See here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22312351 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22312351 Keep in mind, that doesn't mean zero cases in hot weather, just that it is less contagious.

ianai 7y ago
“ It may also explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (such as Malaysia, Indonesia or Thailand) with high temperature and high relative humidity environment did not have major community outbreaks of SARS.” Iirc, Maylasia has a pretty strong breakout on its hands. They recorded their first death today and are at something like 670 cases. I think their double rate was 2-3 days. Edit-it’s 1 day today. See link. Not good news I think for the hypothesis. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus