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That means 1-2 million deaths in the US according to the latest modelling from Imperial Collage London, so it’s likely all countries will proceed to full lockdo

That means 1-2 million deaths in the US according to the latest modelling from Imperial Collage London, so it’s likely all countries will proceed to full lockdown for months at some point soon.

lazzlazzlazz 7y ago
Any chance you could link to those models? I searched around and couldn't find them.
- grey-area 7y ago
  https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.
  - lazzlazzlazz 7y ago
    Excellent. Thank you.
kart23 7y ago
This just isnt true. Look at china. Their new cases per day have now dropped to effectively zero. Under 100,000 people got it, and deaths are around 6,000. Keep in mind this is for a population of 1.3 Billion. US population is 300 million. Please explain how 2 million people are gonna die in this country.
- grey-area 7y ago
  The paper explains how, these are not my figures but they do seem credible, this is the modelling team advising the uk gov and the gov has adjusted their strategy to suppression in response (the tactic in China), but the economic impact of that is pretty dire too, and it means tough choices. The measures in China were draconian and long lasting (large cities on lockdown for months), and they managed to contain it because they were first hit and it had not spread far. It has already unfortunately spread widely in the UK and US.
DeonPenny 7y ago
I feel like those models take china into it. A place with high levels of smokers and pollution. When the dust settles I doubt 2 million old people will die.

That means 1-2 million deaths in the US according to the latest modelling from Imperial Collage London, so it’s likely all countries will proceed to full lockdown for months at some point soon.

lazzlazzlazz 7y ago

Any chance you could link to those models? I searched around and couldn't find them.

grey-area 7y ago
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.
- lazzlazzlazz 7y ago
  Excellent. Thank you.

kart23 7y ago

This just isnt true. Look at china. Their new cases per day have now dropped to effectively zero. Under 100,000 people got it, and deaths are around 6,000. Keep in mind this is for a population of 1.3 Billion. US population is 300 million. Please explain how 2 million people are gonna die in this country.

grey-area 7y ago
The paper explains how, these are not my figures but they do seem credible, this is the modelling team advising the uk gov and the gov has adjusted their strategy to suppression in response (the tactic in China), but the economic impact of that is pretty dire too, and it means tough choices. The measures in China were draconian and long lasting (large cities on lockdown for months), and they managed to contain it because they were first hit and it had not spread far. It has already unfortunately spread widely in the UK and US.

DeonPenny 7y ago

I feel like those models take china into it. A place with high levels of smokers and pollution. When the dust settles I doubt 2 million old people will die.