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No way to have the statistics get lost in the noise for a prolonged time and then suddenly switch to strong exponential growth that totally buries a developed m
by usrusr 7y ago
No way to have the statistics get lost in the noise for a prolonged time and then suddenly switch to strong exponential growth that totally buries a developed medical system. If the ratio of sub-noticeable to noticeable cases was so much bigger, by the time you'd reach Lombardy-grade hospital influx the growth rate would already be shrinking from saturation. A virus that shows the infection rate documented by serious cases in hard-hit regions is unable to spread slowly in an unaware and unimmunized population.
- SpicyLemonZest 7y agoExponential growth is very good at getting lost in the noise for a prolonged time until suddenly it's not. Toy numbers: If you have 20K cases today with a 6 day doubling time, the first case was 84 days ago but 99% of the cases are new this month. (And in some sense this must have happened - everyone agrees there are a significant number of undetected cases, the only question is how many.)