5 ms·

> prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions So, no.

by cycrutchfield 7y ago

nmca 7y ago
Could you elaborate?
- nmca 7y ago
  Ah, you imply that the underreporting rate fell over time and the headline number is from before the travel ban.
  - cycrutchfield 7y ago
    Precisely
- cycrutchfield 7y ago
  >Overall, our findings indicate that a large proportion of COVID-19 infections were undocumented prior to the implementation of travel restrictions and other heightened control measures in China on 23 January, and that a large proportion of the total force of infection was mediated through these undocumented infections (Table 1). This high proportion of undocumented infections, many of whom were likely not severely symptomatic, appears to have facilitated the rapid spread of the virus throughout China. Indeed, suppression of the infectiousness of these undocumented cases in model simulations reduces the total number of documented cases and the overall spread of SARS-CoV2 This paper is about undetected carriers spreading SARS-CoV2 across China prior to the Jan 23 lockdown. It does not imply that 86% of all total infections that we see currently are undocumented, it only reflects the relatively narrow testing that was happening prior to Jan 23 (likely only the severe cases). After Jan 23, China expanded its testing much more broadly, and other countries (such as South Korea) have done so as well. You should not take this paper to mean that the actual number of cases for these countries is larger by a factor of 1/(1-0.86).
  - nmca 7y ago
    Thank you, in parallel to this response I looked at the paper in more detail and updated the original comment. A shame, I was briefly optimistic about the news.
    - cycrutchfield 7y ago
      There is a strong desire by many (particularly on HN) to find any sort of evidence to support the contrarian notion that "Hey, it's not that big of a deal, everybody else is just overreacting!" We should be conscious of this desire, and be careful assessing new evidence that comports with this notion.
      - nostrebored 7y ago
        This is a pretty insane take. Asking exploratory questions is not contrarian, it's scientific. Beyond that, HN has been oscillating between doomsdaying about CoV19 and calling it no big deal for weeks now. But this isn't a bad thing -- having strong opinions and questioning the veracity of data is key to having informed, strong opinions.
        cycrutchfield 7y ago
        Nothing scientific about misreading a scientific paper and drawing conclusions that aren't there. HN has a well-known contrarian bias that tends to manifest as a "we know better than the so-called experts" hivemind.
        nostrebored 7y ago
        To misread a scientific paper you have to actually read it. Data analysis is a difficult field, and there are a number of studies where the data presented tells a completely different story than the scientists presenting it. Science is political and scientists are fallible. Confirmation bias isn't a plebian problem. Reading for your own understanding and asking questions is a necessary part of both scientific accountability and personal growth! And, hearteningly, we see that OP has edited his comment to reflect the knowledge you passed along and has a better understanding of the situation. Inquiry at work.

> prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions So, no.

nmca 7y ago

Could you elaborate?

nmca 7y ago
Ah, you imply that the underreporting rate fell over time and the headline number is from before the travel ban.
- cycrutchfield 7y ago
  Precisely
cycrutchfield 7y ago
>Overall, our findings indicate that a large proportion of COVID-19 infections were undocumented prior to the implementation of travel restrictions and other heightened control measures in China on 23 January, and that a large proportion of the total force of infection was mediated through these undocumented infections (Table 1). This high proportion of undocumented infections, many of whom were likely not severely symptomatic, appears to have facilitated the rapid spread of the virus throughout China. Indeed, suppression of the infectiousness of these undocumented cases in model simulations reduces the total number of documented cases and the overall spread of SARS-CoV2 This paper is about undetected carriers spreading SARS-CoV2 across China prior to the Jan 23 lockdown. It does not imply that 86% of all total infections that we see currently are undocumented, it only reflects the relatively narrow testing that was happening prior to Jan 23 (likely only the severe cases). After Jan 23, China expanded its testing much more broadly, and other countries (such as South Korea) have done so as well. You should not take this paper to mean that the actual number of cases for these countries is larger by a factor of 1/(1-0.86).
- nmca 7y ago
  Thank you, in parallel to this response I looked at the paper in more detail and updated the original comment. A shame, I was briefly optimistic about the news.
  - cycrutchfield 7y ago
    There is a strong desire by many (particularly on HN) to find any sort of evidence to support the contrarian notion that "Hey, it's not that big of a deal, everybody else is just overreacting!" We should be conscious of this desire, and be careful assessing new evidence that comports with this notion.
    - nostrebored 7y ago
      This is a pretty insane take. Asking exploratory questions is not contrarian, it's scientific. Beyond that, HN has been oscillating between doomsdaying about CoV19 and calling it no big deal for weeks now. But this isn't a bad thing -- having strong opinions and questioning the veracity of data is key to having informed, strong opinions.
      - cycrutchfield 7y ago
        Nothing scientific about misreading a scientific paper and drawing conclusions that aren't there. HN has a well-known contrarian bias that tends to manifest as a "we know better than the so-called experts" hivemind.
        nostrebored 7y ago
        To misread a scientific paper you have to actually read it. Data analysis is a difficult field, and there are a number of studies where the data presented tells a completely different story than the scientists presenting it. Science is political and scientists are fallible. Confirmation bias isn't a plebian problem. Reading for your own understanding and asking questions is a necessary part of both scientific accountability and personal growth! And, hearteningly, we see that OP has edited his comment to reflect the knowledge you passed along and has a better understanding of the situation. Inquiry at work.