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people dying everywhere (which, with a hopeful 2% letality is still very likely) will also heavily disturb the peace as well as the economy. As long as we are n

by fock 7y ago

people dying everywhere (which, with a hopeful 2% letality is still very likely) will also heavily disturb the peace as well as the economy. As long as we are not sure about basic things like that, I'm quite for a lockdown, because a 7% letality is still not off the table (with happy things like reinfection) - and this is basically about double the loss of life of WW2 (which at least had a clear winner, being able to play out its game). So: how are you sure that the parameters of the pandemic are something, the system can handle? Is there any precedent for that? What reason is there, that our society (that's the people, making up this system) can't overcome this crisis with something different?

seanmcdirmid 7y ago
It isn’t clear that the corona virus will have a noticeable effect on death rate in any specific city, region, or country. It would have to kill a lot more people before it even showed up in the statistics in a place like Wuhan that has gotten the brunt of it, I think.
- fock 7y ago
  so, only a fraction will be infected? What's your evidence for that assumption? Or it's burnt out in Wuhan? How can Italy have like the same fatality number for _a lot_ less people? Basically we don't know and we've been following experts claiming "it's a flu" for about 3 months. Then people started dying in Wuhan, Iran, Italy? Don't you think that we should maybe try something different now?
  - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
    For the death rate to rise, a lot of people have to get infected and die. Keep in mind there are a lot of deaths from everything else, so for the corona virus to bring that overall death rate number up in any meaningful way, it would have to be huge.
    - fock 7y ago
      death rate (mortality) of the total pouplation is around 1-2%/year. Yeah, the coronavirus would have to be huge to increase that - but what is your evidence that it's not being able to get as huge?

by fock 7y ago

seanmcdirmid 7y ago

It isn’t clear that the corona virus will have a noticeable effect on death rate in any specific city, region, or country. It would have to kill a lot more people before it even showed up in the statistics in a place like Wuhan that has gotten the brunt of it, I think.

fock 7y ago
so, only a fraction will be infected? What's your evidence for that assumption? Or it's burnt out in Wuhan? How can Italy have like the same fatality number for _a lot_ less people? Basically we don't know and we've been following experts claiming "it's a flu" for about 3 months. Then people started dying in Wuhan, Iran, Italy? Don't you think that we should maybe try something different now?
- seanmcdirmid 7y ago
  For the death rate to rise, a lot of people have to get infected and die. Keep in mind there are a lot of deaths from everything else, so for the corona virus to bring that overall death rate number up in any meaningful way, it would have to be huge.
  - fock 7y ago
    death rate (mortality) of the total pouplation is around 1-2%/year. Yeah, the coronavirus would have to be huge to increase that - but what is your evidence that it's not being able to get as huge?