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Just my 2 cents - Take your assets out of the market. Until we (in the US) see a few senators, a justice or two and / or the VP/president/etc succumb to the di

Just my 2 cents - Take your assets out of the market. Until we (in the US) see a few senators, a justice or two and / or the VP/president/etc succumb to the disease we haven’t hit peak panic. ~50% of the workforce is about to be out of a job for a few weeks. A large portion of Restaurants are about to go bankrupt, daycares are about to go bankrupt. Houses are about to drop in price (no money, and elderly dying). The reality is, this could be worse than the Great Depression. At least if we keep this up for any length of time. What we are doing right now is seizing the economy and if we close down everything, it’s going to be hard to start back up. Governments are going to crumble because of this. Long term (a year out) things should be improving. But IMO we have a long way to fall. I wouldn’t be surprised if banks start folding.

ScoutOrgo 7y ago
But if you sit on cash, you will miss the day where it has a huge gain due to some news like a vaccine announced.
- marcinjachymiak 7y ago
  Most of the people betting on this becoming a recession/depression think that the coronavirus is just the pin to pop the (ETF) bubble. Most of the companies that have announced that they're working on vaccines have pumped already, but feel free to invest.
- raincom 7y ago
  Coronavirus and oil crash are huge catalysts. A vaccine won’t help much, as investors become risk-averse. When majority of investors become risk-averse, risk premium goes high, thereby reducing stock prices.
- minwcnt5 7y ago
  To me that's fine. The S&P 500 isn't going to instantly spike back up to 3000. There is real damage being done to corporate bottom lines. The negative growth experienced by companies during a recession compounds into all future earnings -- for the rest of time. So the way I look at it is that the market is pricing all future earnings of companies, and once the volatility has settled it will reach some new baseline that's much lower than the peak, and then continue to grow at a nominal rate, only forward-looking, with no memory of what just happened. It took 4 years for the S&P to reach its previous peak after it bottomed out in 2009. So if you've been holding onto cash, or sold near the 2020 peak, you probably have a lot of time to get back into the market and still end up better off than if you'd bought in a month ago. You don't need to time it perfectly. I can make a lot of money if I do time it correctly, but if I fail to I'm not going to count it a loss.
AnimalMuppet 7y ago
I'm pretty sure banks aren't going to start folding. The Fed is ahead of the curve this time (or at least not nearly as far behind it as in 2008). They seem to be pretty serious about doing whatever is needed to keep things from falling apart.
- lettergram 7y ago
  I said I wouldn't be surprised, not I think they will. For reference, I work at a bank. The opinion is my own. The problem has to do with a run on the bank. All banks are currently reporting negative earnings. Most banks rely on credit, and revenue from said credit. If that breaks down (because people can’t pay). They collapse. I think the fed can bail them out. I also think that requires printing money so inflation will be high.
  - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
    > I said I wouldn't be surprised, not I think they will. Fair enough. > I think the fed can bail them out. I also think that requires printing money so inflation will be high. If things go that way, I don't think it has to result in inflation. The thing is that, when a bank collapses, some money disappears (because of fractional reserve banking). If the Fed prints exactly the right amount of money to counterbalance that, it doesn't have to be inflationary. (The Fed could mess it up, of course...)
    - pdonis 7y ago
      > when a bank collapses, some money disappears (because of fractional reserve banking) The money doesn't disappear when the bank collapses. It disappears if the loans that defaulted and caused the bank to collapse are written off instead of being assumed by some other party. If the borrower's inability to pay is only temporary, the loan probably won't be written off; it will just be restructured, and the money won't disappear.
      - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
seanmcdirmid 7y ago
Looking through Wikipedia, only one congress person was known to die of Spanish flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacob_Edwin_Meeker https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacob_Edwin_Meeker), so I don’t think the numbers will get up enough in this pandemic to effect someone high profile in government.
- lettergram 7y ago
  Spanish flu didn’t impact elderly nearly as much nor, at the time, was the government so elderly on average. The death rates for those in their 60s and above seem to be much greater than those younger

ScoutOrgo 7y ago

But if you sit on cash, you will miss the day where it has a huge gain due to some news like a vaccine announced.

marcinjachymiak 7y ago
Most of the people betting on this becoming a recession/depression think that the coronavirus is just the pin to pop the (ETF) bubble. Most of the companies that have announced that they're working on vaccines have pumped already, but feel free to invest.
raincom 7y ago
Coronavirus and oil crash are huge catalysts. A vaccine won’t help much, as investors become risk-averse. When majority of investors become risk-averse, risk premium goes high, thereby reducing stock prices.
minwcnt5 7y ago
To me that's fine. The S&P 500 isn't going to instantly spike back up to 3000. There is real damage being done to corporate bottom lines. The negative growth experienced by companies during a recession compounds into all future earnings -- for the rest of time. So the way I look at it is that the market is pricing all future earnings of companies, and once the volatility has settled it will reach some new baseline that's much lower than the peak, and then continue to grow at a nominal rate, only forward-looking, with no memory of what just happened. It took 4 years for the S&P to reach its previous peak after it bottomed out in 2009. So if you've been holding onto cash, or sold near the 2020 peak, you probably have a lot of time to get back into the market and still end up better off than if you'd bought in a month ago. You don't need to time it perfectly. I can make a lot of money if I do time it correctly, but if I fail to I'm not going to count it a loss.

AnimalMuppet 7y ago

I'm pretty sure banks aren't going to start folding. The Fed is ahead of the curve this time (or at least not nearly as far behind it as in 2008). They seem to be pretty serious about doing whatever is needed to keep things from falling apart.

lettergram 7y ago
I said I wouldn't be surprised, not I think they will. For reference, I work at a bank. The opinion is my own. The problem has to do with a run on the bank. All banks are currently reporting negative earnings. Most banks rely on credit, and revenue from said credit. If that breaks down (because people can’t pay). They collapse. I think the fed can bail them out. I also think that requires printing money so inflation will be high.
- AnimalMuppet 7y ago
  > I said I wouldn't be surprised, not I think they will. Fair enough. > I think the fed can bail them out. I also think that requires printing money so inflation will be high. If things go that way, I don't think it has to result in inflation. The thing is that, when a bank collapses, some money disappears (because of fractional reserve banking). If the Fed prints exactly the right amount of money to counterbalance that, it doesn't have to be inflationary. (The Fed could mess it up, of course...)
  - pdonis 7y ago
    > when a bank collapses, some money disappears (because of fractional reserve banking) The money doesn't disappear when the bank collapses. It disappears if the loans that defaulted and caused the bank to collapse are written off instead of being assumed by some other party. If the borrower's inability to pay is only temporary, the loan probably won't be written off; it will just be restructured, and the money won't disappear.
    - AnimalMuppet 7y ago

seanmcdirmid 7y ago

Looking through Wikipedia, only one congress person was known to die of Spanish flu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacob_Edwin_Meeker https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacob_Edwin_Meeker), so I don’t think the numbers will get up enough in this pandemic to effect someone high profile in government.

lettergram 7y ago
Spanish flu didn’t impact elderly nearly as much nor, at the time, was the government so elderly on average. The death rates for those in their 60s and above seem to be much greater than those younger