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Given how serious the situation is worldwide I suspect that there will be at least an attempt to speed things out as much as possible. I would be surprised if i

Given how serious the situation is worldwide I suspect that there will be at least an attempt to speed things out as much as possible. I would be surprised if it actually would end up being a year and a half.

0xffff2 7y ago
I'm not an expert at all, but my understanding of the articles I've read is that 1-1.5 years is sped up quite a bit. 2-3 years would be more typical.
- partiallypro 7y ago
  It definitely is, but if the entire global economy is still at a standstill in 3 months, I have no doubt the government will speed it up even more.
bbeekley 7y ago
1.5 years is already very fast for a clinical trial. The average duration of clinical trials for "breakthrough" drugs is 5.0 years [1], compared to 8.0 years for drugs without that status. Plus O(1%) of trials actually make it to approval [2]. [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2664989 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/26649... [2] https://www.fda.gov/patients/drug-development-process/step-3-clinical-research https://www.fda.gov/patients/drug-development-process/step-3...
foob4r 7y ago
And what expertise is your speculation based on?
comicjk 7y ago
If these first trials succeed, yes, we might get a vaccine mass-produced fast. But you're not looking at the downside risk: if these trials fail, and the next trials fail. This is research; by definition we don't know what will happen. It could turn out to be really hard to make a vaccine for this particular virus. In that case, even with well-funded efforts trying everything, it could take many years.
obmelvin 7y ago
As much as many people like to hate on the pharmaceutical industry etc, there is a reason clinical trials take time. Yes, this is a pandemic and we must move quickly, but it's important to ensure that we don't repeat the recent mistakes made with the dengue vaccine in the Phillipines [1]. That vaccine made dengue significantly worse for those who had not been previously exposed to it. Situations like this are especially bad because they erode trust in vaccines, perpetuating the idea that all vaccines are bad/malicious when in fact a properly vetted vaccine is very safe. [1] - https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2019/05/03/719037789/botched-vaccine-launch-has-deadly-repercussions https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2019/05/03/7190377...

0xffff2 7y ago

I'm not an expert at all, but my understanding of the articles I've read is that 1-1.5 years is sped up quite a bit. 2-3 years would be more typical.

partiallypro 7y ago
It definitely is, but if the entire global economy is still at a standstill in 3 months, I have no doubt the government will speed it up even more.

bbeekley 7y ago

1.5 years is already very fast for a clinical trial. The average duration of clinical trials for "breakthrough" drugs is 5.0 years [1], compared to 8.0 years for drugs without that status. Plus O(1%) of trials actually make it to approval [2]. [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2664989 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/26649... [2] https://www.fda.gov/patients/drug-development-process/step-3-clinical-research https://www.fda.gov/patients/drug-development-process/step-3...

foob4r 7y ago

And what expertise is your speculation based on?

comicjk 7y ago

If these first trials succeed, yes, we might get a vaccine mass-produced fast. But you're not looking at the downside risk: if these trials fail, and the next trials fail. This is research; by definition we don't know what will happen. It could turn out to be really hard to make a vaccine for this particular virus. In that case, even with well-funded efforts trying everything, it could take many years.

obmelvin 7y ago

As much as many people like to hate on the pharmaceutical industry etc, there is a reason clinical trials take time. Yes, this is a pandemic and we must move quickly, but it's important to ensure that we don't repeat the recent mistakes made with the dengue vaccine in the Phillipines [1]. That vaccine made dengue significantly worse for those who had not been previously exposed to it. Situations like this are especially bad because they erode trust in vaccines, perpetuating the idea that all vaccines are bad/malicious when in fact a properly vetted vaccine is very safe. [1] - https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2019/05/03/719037789/botched-vaccine-launch-has-deadly-repercussions https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2019/05/03/7190377...