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In this event, the solution will be the creation of a permanent, South Korea and China inspired infrastructure for testing, tracking and constraining infectious

In this event, the solution will be the creation of a permanent, South Korea and China inspired infrastructure for testing, tracking and constraining infectious citizens by all developed countries. Regardless of the privacy and civil liberty concerns, I think that's where we'll eventually end up, and to your children it will one day seem crazy that a person with an infectious illness was once able to freely walk the streets.

ekianjo 7y ago
> tracking and constraining infectious citizens by all developed countries. That would be ridiculous if you get to millions of people infected, because that would effectively destroy all economic activity. Even during the 1918-1919 epidemic with high mortality rates people did not stop going to work. Our strategy to isolate ourselves is fine if it's short term but it can't continue more than a few months.
- londons_explore 7y ago
  If you can make it fine grained enough so people are only isolated for a few days around their personal most infectious time, productivity losses would be minimal. The productivity loss only happens when testing is inaccurate and entire communities are told to stay home for months just because it's hard to identify exactly who is coughing out germs each day.
- jonrimmer 7y ago
  Tracking and testing doesn't destroy economic activity. Complete lock-downs, as we're seeing in China, Italy, Spain and soon elsewhere do. But it does let you get a grip on the situation when you have millions infected. However you're right that you can't maintain that long term, so what's the off-ramp? South Korea has proved you can do mass testing and tracking which, combined with voluntary and state-enforced control of movement, lets you keep infections at a low level. What I'm contending is that, if the situation is bad enough, all countries that can will implement similar controls, and those controls will a permanent situation, not a temporary one. People will still be able to go to work, just not if they're potentially sick or infectious.
  - kijin 7y ago
    South Korea has also shown that restrictions on movement don't need to be particularly draconian. The subway in Seoul is still packed with people every day, but I haven't heard of any mass infection related to the subway. Everyone cleans their hands and wears face masks, so it's okay to be out and about. Oh, and there's a clean bathroom in every subway station.
    - davidgould 7y ago
      > Oh, and there's a clean bathroom in every subway station. So this will never work in the United States. Snark aside, every time I ride a BART elevator with a pool of piss on the floor I wonder about this country. Somehow the idea of someone peeing without paying is so offensive that we would rather stand in piss than provide public facilities.
  - andybak 7y ago
    Just to counter the impression that the whole of China is in lockdown: https://twitter.com/DanielFalush/status/1239049733974433798 https://twitter.com/DanielFalush/status/1239049733974433798 You can still go clubbing in Shanghai with certain restrictions.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- vladvasiliu 7y ago
  As a sibling said, this is already where we are in Europe. But if we had a system such as this, we could have prevented the first patients from spreading it around, and so we wouldn't have had to have millions of people stay at home.
londons_explore 7y ago
Imagine a future where you do a swab test every morning while brushing your teeth. If you had any of thousands of infectious diseases, you're required to stay home. The test would take only 5 minutes, and you get fined if you don't do it, and receive sick pay if you test positive. I imagine that within a few years of rolling this out, common colds might be a thing of the past, and overall worker productivity higher rather than lower.
- keiferski 7y ago
  Imagine a future where you do a swab every morning while brushing your teeth and your testosterone and adrenaline levels are evaluated for likelihood of engaging in Anti-Social or Anti-Authority Activity. Individuals with high levels are locked into their apartments and subject to online training courses. Repeated violations result in a visit from the authorities. Yeah, no thanks. Not every solution to a serious problem needs to be some surveillance state dystopian nightmare.
  - Taek 7y ago
    Open source toothbrush that's not connected to the cloud.
  - lifeisstillgood 7y ago
    But it needs to be based on good science. As someone in thread said, the false positive rate needs to be staggeringly low. And the false positive for Testosterone -> AntiSocial behaviour is huge - marathon runners to entrepreneurs and weight lifters. So the idea is good - test people for something bad they will do - but the ability to test reliably for all the bad things is real low. I think we shall just stick to past crime not FutureCrime for now. And honestly, using "bad authoritarian governments do bad things with good tools so we should not use those tools" does not make a good argument. it just means we need to double down on democracy.
    - keiferski 7y ago
      I don't think it is a good idea or good tool at all. I don't need or want some external authority to tell me if I'm allowed to leave my house. I used the example of "Anti Social" behavior as a joke and I thought that was obvious...but apparently not. The idea is entirely antithetical to a free society. As someone indicated in another comment, the proper way to do this is through personalized incentives and social encouragement, not through authoritarian state action.
kijin 7y ago
Not even the strongest proponent of civil liberty would allow a person to walk down the street shooting bullets in every direction. It's not hard to imagine that spewing viruses all over the place will be treated just the same in a society with knowledge of modern epidemiology. Your rights ends where they begin to impinge on those of others. We do need a better standard of privacy, though, than what South Korea is currently offering to the unfortunate souls who are infected. The tracking data is supposedly anonymized, but nobody gives any thought to the fact that anonymized data from multiple sources can be easily combined to de-anonymize them.
- miscPerson 7y ago
  Yet, people are allowed to drive cars they might crash while driving drunk. There’s a reasonable balance between risk you potentially pose to others and your ability to live a life without government oppression. It’s genuinely disturbing how many people respond to any risk with welcoming fascism back.
nickysielicki 7y ago
No way. You’re not giving Americans enough credit.
titzer 7y ago
> I think that's where we'll eventually end up, Until the first economic downturn, when the ruling party throws it all out the window, cuts taxes, and cuts interest rates. And the rich people will eat it up.

ekianjo 7y ago

> tracking and constraining infectious citizens by all developed countries. That would be ridiculous if you get to millions of people infected, because that would effectively destroy all economic activity. Even during the 1918-1919 epidemic with high mortality rates people did not stop going to work. Our strategy to isolate ourselves is fine if it's short term but it can't continue more than a few months.

londons_explore 7y ago
If you can make it fine grained enough so people are only isolated for a few days around their personal most infectious time, productivity losses would be minimal. The productivity loss only happens when testing is inaccurate and entire communities are told to stay home for months just because it's hard to identify exactly who is coughing out germs each day.
jonrimmer 7y ago
Tracking and testing doesn't destroy economic activity. Complete lock-downs, as we're seeing in China, Italy, Spain and soon elsewhere do. But it does let you get a grip on the situation when you have millions infected. However you're right that you can't maintain that long term, so what's the off-ramp? South Korea has proved you can do mass testing and tracking which, combined with voluntary and state-enforced control of movement, lets you keep infections at a low level. What I'm contending is that, if the situation is bad enough, all countries that can will implement similar controls, and those controls will a permanent situation, not a temporary one. People will still be able to go to work, just not if they're potentially sick or infectious.
- kijin 7y ago
  South Korea has also shown that restrictions on movement don't need to be particularly draconian. The subway in Seoul is still packed with people every day, but I haven't heard of any mass infection related to the subway. Everyone cleans their hands and wears face masks, so it's okay to be out and about. Oh, and there's a clean bathroom in every subway station.
  - davidgould 7y ago
    > Oh, and there's a clean bathroom in every subway station. So this will never work in the United States. Snark aside, every time I ride a BART elevator with a pool of piss on the floor I wonder about this country. Somehow the idea of someone peeing without paying is so offensive that we would rather stand in piss than provide public facilities.
- andybak 7y ago
  Just to counter the impression that the whole of China is in lockdown: https://twitter.com/DanielFalush/status/1239049733974433798 https://twitter.com/DanielFalush/status/1239049733974433798 You can still go clubbing in Shanghai with certain restrictions.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
vladvasiliu 7y ago
As a sibling said, this is already where we are in Europe. But if we had a system such as this, we could have prevented the first patients from spreading it around, and so we wouldn't have had to have millions of people stay at home.

londons_explore 7y ago

Imagine a future where you do a swab test every morning while brushing your teeth. If you had any of thousands of infectious diseases, you're required to stay home. The test would take only 5 minutes, and you get fined if you don't do it, and receive sick pay if you test positive. I imagine that within a few years of rolling this out, common colds might be a thing of the past, and overall worker productivity higher rather than lower.

keiferski 7y ago
Imagine a future where you do a swab every morning while brushing your teeth and your testosterone and adrenaline levels are evaluated for likelihood of engaging in Anti-Social or Anti-Authority Activity. Individuals with high levels are locked into their apartments and subject to online training courses. Repeated violations result in a visit from the authorities. Yeah, no thanks. Not every solution to a serious problem needs to be some surveillance state dystopian nightmare.
- Taek 7y ago
  Open source toothbrush that's not connected to the cloud.
- lifeisstillgood 7y ago
  But it needs to be based on good science. As someone in thread said, the false positive rate needs to be staggeringly low. And the false positive for Testosterone -> AntiSocial behaviour is huge - marathon runners to entrepreneurs and weight lifters. So the idea is good - test people for something bad they will do - but the ability to test reliably for all the bad things is real low. I think we shall just stick to past crime not FutureCrime for now. And honestly, using "bad authoritarian governments do bad things with good tools so we should not use those tools" does not make a good argument. it just means we need to double down on democracy.
  - keiferski 7y ago
    I don't think it is a good idea or good tool at all. I don't need or want some external authority to tell me if I'm allowed to leave my house. I used the example of "Anti Social" behavior as a joke and I thought that was obvious...but apparently not. The idea is entirely antithetical to a free society. As someone indicated in another comment, the proper way to do this is through personalized incentives and social encouragement, not through authoritarian state action.

kijin 7y ago

Not even the strongest proponent of civil liberty would allow a person to walk down the street shooting bullets in every direction. It's not hard to imagine that spewing viruses all over the place will be treated just the same in a society with knowledge of modern epidemiology. Your rights ends where they begin to impinge on those of others. We do need a better standard of privacy, though, than what South Korea is currently offering to the unfortunate souls who are infected. The tracking data is supposedly anonymized, but nobody gives any thought to the fact that anonymized data from multiple sources can be easily combined to de-anonymize them.

miscPerson 7y ago
Yet, people are allowed to drive cars they might crash while driving drunk. There’s a reasonable balance between risk you potentially pose to others and your ability to live a life without government oppression. It’s genuinely disturbing how many people respond to any risk with welcoming fascism back.

nickysielicki 7y ago

No way. You’re not giving Americans enough credit.

titzer 7y ago

> I think that's where we'll eventually end up, Until the first economic downturn, when the ruling party throws it all out the window, cuts taxes, and cuts interest rates. And the rich people will eat it up.