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Do you have a source for 80-90% collapse in China? That sounds way high. Also 3000 confirmed cases does not mean 3000 actual infections. Depending on the model

by mNovak 7y ago

Do you have a source for 80-90% collapse in China? That sounds way high. Also 3000 confirmed cases does not mean 3000 actual infections. Depending on the model, the expected number is orders of magnitude higher.

barry-cotter 7y ago
> Do you have a source for 80-90% collapse in China? That sounds way high I live in Shanghai. It normally takes about two weeks for things to go back to normal after Lunar New Year ends, which was two months ago. Things are not yet back to normal. Maybe 30% of office workers are back at work, 50% maximum. Gyms, bars, restaurants are almost all still closed. The dental hospital is still closed. You can basically write off February and at least half of March for economic production.
- appleiigs 7y ago
  If you write off 2 months out of 12 months, that's a 17% decrease.
  - taiwanboy 7y ago
    I said China’s economy collapsed 80-90% in the LAST month
  - onlyrealcuzzo 7y ago
    I think he was talking about the current situation, not the full year perspective. How is that any different than saying 2 months out of a decade is 1.7%??
    - appleiigs 7y ago
      He has no source. In another comment I pointed out the stock asian market only decreased 20% at the max.
appleiigs 7y ago
Shanghai and Hong Kong markets were down 20% at the max.
Supermancho 7y ago
> Also 3000 confirmed cases does not mean 3000 actual infections. That's exactly what it means. 3000 cases of positively identified infections in individuals, if you want to get more wordy. Some of those have recovered, some have died. Still the number is over that today.
- llampx 7y ago
  Technically it means minimum 3000 cases, probably more .
  - Supermancho 7y ago
    Cases are recorded. If it's not in a medical record, it's not a case. Technically, the reference was to ~3000 but someone then wanted to dispute that cases was not the same as infections. The number is irrelevant. If it's not known for sure, it's not a case and it's not a known infection, medically. I don't understand how factual correction gets downvoted, but here we are.
    - digitaltrees 7y ago
      This is a pedantic word splitting argument. The relevant measure is number of people infected no the number we happen to know for sure because we finally got around to testing. If we had South Korea’s level of testing then maybe your argument would warrant breath behind words, under the current circumstances save your breath.
      - Supermancho 7y ago
        > This is a pedantic word splitting argument. No, it's a correction. >> > Also 3000 confirmed cases does not mean 3000 actual infections. This statement is factually incorrect. > The relevant measure is number of people infected no the number we happen to know for sure because we finally got around to testing That is irrelevant to the response I gave. It seems to be a popular interest today, in trying to clarify a concept, which is unrelated. I am done engaging with this derail.

by mNovak 7y ago

barry-cotter 7y ago

> Do you have a source for 80-90% collapse in China? That sounds way high I live in Shanghai. It normally takes about two weeks for things to go back to normal after Lunar New Year ends, which was two months ago. Things are not yet back to normal. Maybe 30% of office workers are back at work, 50% maximum. Gyms, bars, restaurants are almost all still closed. The dental hospital is still closed. You can basically write off February and at least half of March for economic production.

appleiigs 7y ago
If you write off 2 months out of 12 months, that's a 17% decrease.
- taiwanboy 7y ago
  I said China’s economy collapsed 80-90% in the LAST month
- onlyrealcuzzo 7y ago
  I think he was talking about the current situation, not the full year perspective. How is that any different than saying 2 months out of a decade is 1.7%??
  - appleiigs 7y ago
    He has no source. In another comment I pointed out the stock asian market only decreased 20% at the max.

appleiigs 7y ago

Shanghai and Hong Kong markets were down 20% at the max.

Supermancho 7y ago

> Also 3000 confirmed cases does not mean 3000 actual infections. That's exactly what it means. 3000 cases of positively identified infections in individuals, if you want to get more wordy. Some of those have recovered, some have died. Still the number is over that today.

llampx 7y ago
Technically it means minimum 3000 cases, probably more .
- Supermancho 7y ago
  Cases are recorded. If it's not in a medical record, it's not a case. Technically, the reference was to ~3000 but someone then wanted to dispute that cases was not the same as infections. The number is irrelevant. If it's not known for sure, it's not a case and it's not a known infection, medically. I don't understand how factual correction gets downvoted, but here we are.
  - digitaltrees 7y ago
    This is a pedantic word splitting argument. The relevant measure is number of people infected no the number we happen to know for sure because we finally got around to testing. If we had South Korea’s level of testing then maybe your argument would warrant breath behind words, under the current circumstances save your breath.
    - Supermancho 7y ago
      > This is a pedantic word splitting argument. No, it's a correction. >> > Also 3000 confirmed cases does not mean 3000 actual infections. This statement is factually incorrect. > The relevant measure is number of people infected no the number we happen to know for sure because we finally got around to testing That is irrelevant to the response I gave. It seems to be a popular interest today, in trying to clarify a concept, which is unrelated. I am done engaging with this derail.