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Game over is an exaggeration. There’s 3.4 trillion sideline cash. China’s economy collapsed 80-90% in the last month and will take months to recover, on top of
by taiwanboy 7y ago
Game over is an exaggeration. There’s 3.4 trillion sideline cash. China’s economy collapsed 80-90% in the last month and will take months to recover, on top of exploding debts. Japan and Germany was in recession before coronavirus hit.
On the other hand, US was growing a steady 2% and had record low unemployment before this. If US can flatten the curve, with only ~3000 cases thus far, US will recover quickly and come out way ahead. And the sideline cash will rush into US
- deelowe 7y agoWhat are we doing to flatten the curve? I keep seeing the us getting compared to Italy.
- taiwanboy 7y agoClosing down schools, banning large gatherings, setting up drive thru testing, ramping up test kits next week, letting employees to work from home, closing borders to China and Europe (25k cases), etc
- deelowe 7y agoDoes that stuff help? Did Italy do that? Im seeing tons of people on IG using this time as a means to take vacations.
- Goladus 7y agoDoes that stuff help? Yes, if practiced as intended, which there is no guarantee. Did Italy do that? Perhaps not as quickly as they should have. The rest of the world is learning from Italy's experience (they should have been paying closer attention to China, but that's another story) Another thing to realize is that these numbers you are seeing are WITH CONTROLS. Sure, "only" 3,000 Chinese have died. Maybe it's more than that, it's hard to trust Chinese numbers. But even at 2x or 3x, that's far cry from the millions it could have been, had China not both imposed extreme controls to limit the spread of the disease AND allocated emergency resources to healthcare. Some models show realistic scenarios where 5 million Americans die within a year, if the virus is allowed to spread at its maximum rate.
- deelowe 7y agoDidn't one model show over 100M?
- Amygaz 7y agoNo. That would implies 100% infection, at a base reproduction rate 15 (close to measles), and a mortality of 30% (close to Ebola). If left unchecked covid-19 would infect 100-250 millions Americans. The R0 is 2.5-3. The average mortality rate is said to probably be closer to 1% rather the 3.4% previously advanced, so 1-2.5 millions deaths, which we will hopefully never reach if people follow the current social distancing and self-quarantine guidance.
- Amygaz 7y agoNo. That would imply 100% infection, at a base reproduction rate of 15 (close to measles), and a mortality rate of 30% (close to Ebola). If left unchecked covid-19 would infect 100-250 millions Americans. The R0 is 2.5-3. The average mortality rate is said to probably be closer to 1% rather the 3.4% previously advanced, so 1-2.5 millions deaths, which we will hopefully never reach if people follow the current social distancing and self-quarantine guidance.
- deelowe 7y agoThanks
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- notatoad 7y agoYes, it helps. China had Hubei province on lockdown for the last couple months and that's a big reason that they have been able to control the spread. Italy should not be looked to as a model of how to handle this.
- deelowe 7y agoWas China's lockdown similar? All I saw was the propaganda video of people being welded into their homes which was later debunked.
- nitrogen 7y agoAs long as you vacation in places with few other people around, that is actually a really good way to spend the time.
- aksss 7y agoWell systemically remember Americans are out-of-the-box more “socially-distanced” than Italians. We all commute one person to a car, we have an outsized sense of personal space. We are less community oriented by and large.
- gremlinsinc 7y agotell that to the people riding the subway...or lining up at the bars.
- mNovak 7y agoDo you have a source for 80-90% collapse in China? That sounds way high. Also 3000 confirmed cases does not mean 3000 actual infections. Depending on the model, the expected number is orders of magnitude higher.
- barry-cotter 7y ago> Do you have a source for 80-90% collapse in China? That sounds way high I live in Shanghai. It normally takes about two weeks for things to go back to normal after Lunar New Year ends, which was two months ago. Things are not yet back to normal. Maybe 30% of office workers are back at work, 50% maximum. Gyms, bars, restaurants are almost all still closed. The dental hospital is still closed. You can basically write off February and at least half of March for economic production.
- appleiigs 7y agoIf you write off 2 months out of 12 months, that's a 17% decrease.
- taiwanboy 7y agoI said China’s economy collapsed 80-90% in the LAST month
- onlyrealcuzzo 7y agoI think he was talking about the current situation, not the full year perspective. How is that any different than saying 2 months out of a decade is 1.7%??
- appleiigs 7y agoHe has no source. In another comment I pointed out the stock asian market only decreased 20% at the max.
- appleiigs 7y agoShanghai and Hong Kong markets were down 20% at the max.