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California Governor calls for home isolation for seniors, bars to close, etc
- xeromal 7y agoI wonder if anyone has done a comparison of damage done by the economy grinding to a halt vs quarantine. I don't mean this in a snarky way. I just imagine a world where truck drivers stop making deliveries. At what point do more people die from lack of resources than the current pandemic?
- lacker 7y agoThe biggest uncertainty is how many people would die if the virus spreads unchecked. 20,000 Americans? 2 million Americans? Both are possible, but with two orders of magnitude difference in effect, it is nearly impossible to estimate things like net economic impact of doing nothing.
- xeromal 7y agoYou can definitely argue that stopping all deliveries in the US could have a more drastic effect. No one is self sustaining any more. No one has a farm. If the grocery stores are empty, more will die. I'm sure of it.
- TeMPOraL 7y agoThat's why neither of these are stopped. In both Wuhan and Italy, the food were and is still available, and deliveries work fine.
- xeromal 7y agoI guess I'm speaking from a Los Angeles perspective. Our stores are literally empty for most staples and any reduction in deliveries is going to make this an actual problem.
- TeMPOraL 7y agoHow long has the panic shopping been going on? In Poland, when it started, it cleared out the basic long shelf life goods (rice, pasta, etc.) and TP from most of the cheaper stores for about two to three days. For some reason, some kinds of meat also disappeared. But it seems to be going back to normal now. If after couple of days your stores are still empty of most staples, it suggests some serious problems higher up in the supply chain.
- yongjik 7y agoBut that's not due to delivery disruption - nobody stopped the trucks, and nobody's planning to. It's due to people hoarding (either by panic or greed). If groceries aren't back to normal in a week, I can easily see state troopers mobilized to guard every supermarket and make sure nobody buys twenty boxes of Bounty. Yes, it would look silly and would grate the nerve of free market enthusiasts, but in an emergency you go for effectiveness, not prettiness.
- TeMPOraL 7y agoThere's so much food people can reasonably hoard, so unless everyone has really large apartments or are stocking personal fallout shelters, if the disruption lasts longer than a week, it suggests the problem lies elsewhere. Possibilities include local supply chain disruption, or abundance of "entrepreneurs" keen to do arbitrage on staples.
- nullc 7y agoIt takes a pretty long time to die from starvation. Doubly so for your average American. :)
- xeromal 7y agohaha ya. I'm seeing this as a potential diet. :P
- woodandsteel 7y agoBut the weaker people are from starvation, the more likely they are to die from the coronavirus.
- nwallin 7y agoNo one is suggesting food deliveries should stop. If you deliver food, lockdowns don't apply to you, not even in Wuhan. Same with medical personnel. If you work for the water or electric company, you'll still be going to work. On the other hand, nobody's gonna die from the lack of a haircut anytime soon. Lots of people (myself included) can work remote.
- ptero 7y agoAnything is possible, but unless this batch has been scientifically engineered for maximum impact, killing 3 times more people than the spanish flu seems unlikely. My 2c.
- duckMuppet 7y agoYet they close NCAAA and NBA games while an airport like JFK still passes 2 million passengers a month, let alone transit centers such as Amtrak, greyhound, or local subway stations. Even at a 2 - 4% mortality rate, the sheer panic over this is nonsense
- nostromo 7y agoPeople are now panicking about the panic and subsequent overreaction. I must say in Seattle it’s a little alarming to go to the store and to literally see no meat, no bread, no milk, no soap. And I’ve already had friends in hospitality lose their jobs. I think the UK’s keep calm and carry on approach is the right way - but it’s hard to turn back from a panic.
- tanilama 7y agoUK approach is suicide, their health care system is going to break down magnificently under the pressure of swarm of sick people, or they are going to ask people to stay at home and pray once sick. I don't see that works, people will riot.
- dillonmckay 7y agoHonestly, I think the people losing their jobs now are in a much better position than those facing uncertainty or not realizing it could happen to them. Start getting unemployment now before that system becomes overwhelmed. I am not optimistic for state and local government to implement remote work.
- marcinzm 7y ago>Even at a 2 - 4% mortality rate, the sheer panic over this is nonsense The fear is that if the health system collapses the mortality rate could be even higher.
- sidlls 7y agoIf? Our health care system isn't equipped to handle a large-scale outbreak. People are panicking, and in really dumb ways, but there are two rational fears right now: 1) fear of our health care system not being able to cope; 2) fear of the idiot-panickers hoarding everything for no good reason and leaving others unable to buy even basic necessities.
- nullc 7y agoThe mortality rate will be much higher the more overloaded we allow the hospitals to become. CDC's 'worst case' numbers are 1.7 million dead, but CDC is assuming a 1% CFR which is the rate we observe in places where hospitals are not overloaded. In Italy-- which has more somewhat more ICU beds per capita than the US does and is a about 1.5 weeks ahead of the bay area in progression-- the current CFR is 6.8% (which is likely an underestimate because exponential growth means that most people who are diagnosed haven't been infected long enough to have died yet) and the resolved CFR is 43% (which is likely an overestimate, in part because people are dying faster than they are recovering in Italy now because they're going untreated). [NOTE: CFR is not IFR, and the CDC analysis uses CFR and separately accounts for the fact that only a small portion of infections result in hospitalizations] The best way to mitigate economic effects is to act stronger earlier, exponential growth means that little improvements earlier are more impactful than vastly more aggressive measures later. After halting big public events, bars closures have probably some of the best ratios of reduced communicability to economic harm, especially given the data showing that young people are carriers are much higher rates than older populations. Many people's informal observations that even last night many bars were very busy. I keep hearing from younger people that if it were an issue 'they' would close down and so concern must be over-hyped. This perception makes it more important to take stronger measures.
- alexis_fr 7y agoI can confirm: Since France’s president has closed bars, the psychosis became widespread, people now take real measures. Before that, everyone was keeping business as usual awaiting instructions, which is the worst way to let the epidemic grow, and they were even mocking those who took precautions as either racists, or weaklings. Ensuring the population is in « concerned » state is the first step, and only closing bars allowed people to visualize the emergency. Example: For the few hours after announcing, the « McDonnalds » hashtag was trending. Which says a lot.
- swampthing 7y agoI feel like I'm missing something obvious — why do we need to analyze what happens when truck drivers stop making deliveries, if no one is talking about banning those deliveries?
- davidw 7y agoThis is correct. Truck drivers are still working in Italy as far as I can tell. There's food, and TP.
- themodelplumber 7y agoOp might be thinking about drivers voluntarily stopping driving due to flu fears, either of getting it or spreading it? But yeah, even then I doubt many would be willing to put their business/livelihood on the line. They may reason that it's just a flu; most won't die and many won't have any symptoms at all--and it's hard to blame them for that.
- phonypc 7y agoI don't understand casual use of the word flu in relation to this pandemic. Even if it was "just a flu" in terms of impact, it would be needlessly confusing.
- themodelplumber 7y agoUnderstand it or not, that's how a lot of people think of it--those are the facts on the ground. And one of the upsides of that condition is that the economy hasn't yet been completely blown to bits, because not everyone is taking things so seriously. Pandemic is a big-picture word. The average family will be far more affected by the results of serious people taking things too seriously than they will by the virus itself. The reason my neighbor can't go to the store and buy TP has nothing to do with the specifics of an illness and everything to do with over-serious, poorly-calibrated perceptions. (Downvote away, but that doesn't change the world condition)
- 7y ago
- ws66 7y agoRemember, the general goal is to flatten the contagion curve, so hospitals can better respond to the demand. It is not a long term pause (hopefully), and the economy will recover - but maybe it will also change somehow...
- TeMPOraL 7y agoWhile I'm absolutely supporting extensive lockdowns (and am happy my government enacted them earlier this week), here's a problem: the lockdowns will realistically have to last many months, and most people in the affected industries don't have enough savings to last that long, if they have any (a lot of people live paycheck-to-paycheck). Given the sheer amount of disrupted sectors, I wonder if it wouldn't be best if government doing lockdowns simply bit the bullet and enacted UBI.
- alexbanks 7y agoLong term is entirely relative. A month pause is a long term pause for many many businesses.
- wheelerwj 7y agoAlso, people have to remember that any kind of pause will take along time to recover from. Businesses can't just start back up and immediately make up for the lack for production. They might be able to increase their production 10-20% in any given month but that means 5-10 months to make up for a single month of lack of production. And China has been down for 4 months...
- TeMPOraL 7y agoChina is recovering, but the supply chains are shot. Ocean freight is a mess. Meanwhile, with almost all Europe in lockdown and both the UK and the US about to join them, we have an opposite problem of demand going down, threatening the suppliers. US cutting off the bulk of EU-US cargo transport isn't helping either (passenger planes carried most of the air freight between Europe and North America). It's a mess, and it'll take long time to recover. I expect it will be survivable in terms of basics (food, medicine), but it might be years before trade works as smoothly as it did just few months ago.
- danenania 7y agoPeople like truck drivers who perform an essential role have to continue working, but change their behavior so they have as little contact as possible with others. They should also be tested frequently once we're able to expand test capacity, and be given masks if we're ever able to overcome the mask shortage. This is why it's so important to stay home if you don't have to go out to keep society functioning. No country can enforce a 100% lockdown because many folks have to go out there and do their jobs if we all want to stay alive. Staying home if it's at all possible for you to do so helps to reduce the risk for these people who don't have the option.
- JamesBarney 7y agoAlmost 10,000 people died in Wuhan and many more would have died had they not locked it down. I don't know of any studies but I can't imagine anywhere near that much dieing from the economy slowing down.
- eikenberry 7y agoIf truck drivers stop delivering you'll soon have grocery stores with no food. As people start to get hungry things will get very ugly very fast.
- wheelerwj 7y agoIs there some rule-of-thumb about that? like 3-days or something. I know our grocery stores only average about 1 day worth of supplies in stock, plus 1 day of food at home, then it all kind of goes to shit?
- TeMPOraL 7y agoWelcome to JIT supply chains! You'd better be sure to have a month's worth of food supply at home. From a country's POV, the stability of food production and delivery to stores is critical. Fortunately, both Italy and Wuhan prove that it can be maintained during lockdown.
- cnlevy 7y agono one died of hunger in Wuhan
- atomicUpdate 7y agoThe estimates place 5-10k people died from suicide alone due to the 2008 recession. Others claim at least 10x that due to lack of health insurance and subsequent health care, so missed cancer diagnoses, treatment, etc. I would not be surprised if the death toll from the ensuing recession is higher than from covid deaths. That begs the obvious question, since covid kills mostly old people, but the recession kills mostly young, which is better?
- ohazi 7y agoMail, truck delivery, etc. can operate with relatively little person to person contact, and it helps the rest of the public maintain lower levels of person to person contact by reducing the need to go to physical stores. I don't believe any country is currently considering halting deliveries. It's a strategic resource, and most people think it's important to keep this engine running. Bars and restaurants are not necessary, and keeping them open encourages the less cautious members of the public to go out when they really shouldn't be.
- threatofrain 7y agoWhat about warehouses or logistics centers, which are just as important as delivery vehicles. > Mail, truck delivery, etc. can operate with relatively little person to person contact...
- ohazi 7y agoWarehouses are huge spaces with lots of stuff and relatively few people. You could have 10 - 20 people running a million square foot warehouse. You could have half that in an emergency situation. These workers can have their own tasks that take them to different parts of the warehouse where they don't need to interact frequently. That's like two orders of magnitude away from bars and restaurants, where you're deliberately placed single digit ft away from everybody else.
- threatofrain 7y agoAnd what about warehouses? How does social distancing work there? What happens if warehouses become very risky sites?
- chucky_z 7y agoWarehouse employees tend to be quite far apart at almost all points in time except breaks, at all warehouses I've worked at. On top of this, I believe current science says that covid-19 survives extremely poorly on most surfaces for the periods of time that are involved with storage + shipping.
- damontal 7y agoUnless forced to close, the bars, restaurants, and businesses will stay open. Very few will voluntarily do the right thing.
- johnchristopher 7y agoIn Belgium some even held lockdown parties before the ban went into effect. Some people crossed borders to go shopping this weekend because only pharmacies and super markets were open. Those who aren't taking it seriously yet are really visible. My manager's manager changed her Facebook's profile pic with a #stayhome slogan but she expects us to come tomorrow monday morning. So, yes, we need a strong government in those trying times.
- alexbanks 7y agoIt would be beneficial for the government to define how it was going to support the businesses it was forcing to close, given forcing them to close has the potential to put them out of business.
- johnchristopher 7y agoWhy would they ? I was surprised President Macron said something along those lines in his latest TV declaration.
- HaloZero 7y agoI would be a bit more sympathetic here. The people who are running these business are also thinking about their employees and others. It's a hard pill to swallow, it's not purely motivated out of greed. You lose your health insurance if you get fired. You can't pay rent. I do think you're right though the only way this will work in the US is by forced Order.
- generalpass 7y agoIf you use the government to force people to stay home, when they economically cannot sustain it, what happens?
- generalpass 7y agoI went to every grocery store in town yesterday just to get the basics, and still came up short. It was massive crowds of elderly people.
- blisterpeanuts 7y agoIn California?
- generalpass 7y agoIn Silicon Valley, no less.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- fortran77 7y agoSeattle Hospitals don't have enough ECMO machines. One of the criteria they use for deciding who gets access is BMI. People with BMI > 25 don't get it. (Mine is 23. Phew!) https://twitter.com/scott_mintzer/status/1239290389963714562 https://twitter.com/scott_mintzer/status/1239290389963714562 (unrolled) https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239290389963714562.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239290389963714562.html
- wheelerwj 7y agothx for sharing!
- chki 7y agoIf you read the whole thread he himself says in the end that the situation is not portrayed accurately. So take this with a grain of salt to say the least.
- grecy 7y agoIf this is all true why isn't it in the mainstream media? Why hasn't Canada closed the borders yet?
- gweinberg 7y agoI can see why he wants restaurants and bars to close. But why breweries?
- mdszy 7y agoBecause they're likely brewpubs, effectively a bar that serves that brewery's beer.
- chipotle_coyote 7y agoThey could probably just close the tasting rooms and sell beer to-go, and if they have distribution, to retailers.
- woodandsteel 7y agoI have noticed that in every online discussion on this topic in recent weeks, there is a group that continues to insist that the virus is a minor problem, no worse than the annual flu. I assume they are all fervent Trump supporters.