3 ms·

> Quarantining is the only thing that will help in this situation. The question is, for how long? Until the infection curve goes down? Until there is not a sin

> Quarantining is the only thing that will help in this situation. The question is, for how long? Until the infection curve goes down? Until there is not a single infected cases in the whole country? While you can't know when this will happen (especially the former, most models are inaccurate because too little is still known about this virus), I don't believe it is sustainable to keep an extended lockdown on a whole country (as opposed to "just" Hubei, which however has almost the entire population of Italy) more than a few months.

kadoban 7y ago
The purpose now of social distancing and quarantine is to spread out the infections so that the hospitals are not overrun by everyone being sick at once. A significant proportion of infected need hospitalization to survive. If we all get sick at once, there simply aren't enough hospital beds to go around, not to mention other supplies. If the hospitals go far beyond capacity, the fatality rate will be _far_ higher than otherwise. As to how long, I haven't seen good models. In the US we don't have very good data either, because we're testing basically noone.
- lbeltrame 7y ago
  The press reports several models which say between next week and the end of April for the so called "peak" (I don't think the press understands what it means, however), but at least to me they're useless because the confidence intervals are not given (I can't expect a newspaper to do so, but providing a source to consult in such cases would be beneficial). Some of these models are also different in nature, which adds to the uncertainty: some are epidemiological models, some are economical (used to evaluate the impact of the measures on the long term). Lastly, a lot of qualified people speak and try to give estimates. I'd love if they don't, because currently the best answer is "we do not know yet". That said, I think that going over two months of lockdown will be probably ruinous for the country as whole.
- shrthnd 7y ago
  The purpose now of social distancing and quarantine is to spread out the infections so that the hospitals are not overrun by everyone being sick at once.
adrianN 7y ago
Until we have a vaccine or enough people have been infected to build up natural herd immunity. At least a year is my guess.
- lbeltrame 7y ago
  I don't know if the country can hold economically and socially being completely locked up for one year. Probably not. And I'm not sure if people can hold psychologically being locked up for one year.

kadoban 7y ago

The purpose now of social distancing and quarantine is to spread out the infections so that the hospitals are not overrun by everyone being sick at once. A significant proportion of infected need hospitalization to survive. If we all get sick at once, there simply aren't enough hospital beds to go around, not to mention other supplies. If the hospitals go far beyond capacity, the fatality rate will be _far_ higher than otherwise. As to how long, I haven't seen good models. In the US we don't have very good data either, because we're testing basically noone.

lbeltrame 7y ago
The press reports several models which say between next week and the end of April for the so called "peak" (I don't think the press understands what it means, however), but at least to me they're useless because the confidence intervals are not given (I can't expect a newspaper to do so, but providing a source to consult in such cases would be beneficial). Some of these models are also different in nature, which adds to the uncertainty: some are epidemiological models, some are economical (used to evaluate the impact of the measures on the long term). Lastly, a lot of qualified people speak and try to give estimates. I'd love if they don't, because currently the best answer is "we do not know yet". That said, I think that going over two months of lockdown will be probably ruinous for the country as whole.
shrthnd 7y ago
The purpose now of social distancing and quarantine is to spread out the infections so that the hospitals are not overrun by everyone being sick at once.

adrianN 7y ago

Until we have a vaccine or enough people have been infected to build up natural herd immunity. At least a year is my guess.

lbeltrame 7y ago
I don't know if the country can hold economically and socially being completely locked up for one year. Probably not. And I'm not sure if people can hold psychologically being locked up for one year.